In the last several days, I have seen a lot of interesting comments in response to the mass shooting in San Bernardino. There is a palpable fear in the air – though it manifests itself in different ways.
Donald Trump wants to keep Muslims out of the country – despite the fact that both French and U.S. gunmen were native residents of the respective countries. Some have suggested the need to cut back on guns, while others have suggested the need to arm all citizens and allow people to wear body armor.
On December 3, the New York Times ran a story, “Fear in the Air Americans Look Over Their Shoulders.” They write, “The killings are happening too often. Bunched too close together. At places you would never imagine.”
“As the long roll call of mass shootings added a prosaic holiday party in San Bernardino, Calif., to its list, a wide expanse of America’s populace finds itself engulfed in a collective fear, a fear tinged with confusion and exasperation and a broad brew of emotions. The fear of the ordinary. Going to work. Eating a meal in a restaurant. Sending children to school. Watching a movie.”
The reality is that this is ridiculous nonsense. It is overblown. Or as President Roosevelt once put it, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
The reality is that each one of us is going to die one day. It is not a pleasant thought, but the reality of our existence. In all likelihood, my death and your death will not be at the hands of a mass shooter. It probably won’t involve a gun at all.
By the odds, people are more likely to die in a mass shooting than win the lottery. But it’s actually a relatively close call on that. Of course people will still buy lottery tickets, hoping against hope, and apparently at least some people will fear being killed in acts of terrorism or mundane acts of a lone gunman.
By the numbers, about 33,000 Americans die every year from firearms. From 2001 to 2013, guns killed more people in this country than AIDS, drug overdoses, war and terrorism combined. But the majority of those deaths are, in fact, self-inflicted suicides.
The majority of homicides are not wild acts of high profile mass shootings. If you are going to get killed, you are most likely going to get killed by a handgun. In 2011, handguns comprised 72.5 percent of the firearms used in homicides. Guns comprised the vast majority of murders, with only 13.3 percent of all murders done by knives and 5.8 percent by use of hands or other body parts.
However, again, if you are going to be killed by a gun, it is most likely going to be your gun, and if you fear gun violence itself, the best way to avoid gun violence is not to have a gun in your home.
The leading causes of death in this country are not violence but are health-related. Heart disease accounts for over 600,000 deaths with cancer just under 600,000. Chronic lower respiratory diseases are third at about 150,000. Next come accidents of all sorts at 130,000, and strokes at just under 130,000. These are followed by Alzheimer’s, diabetes, pneumonia and flu, and kidney disease.
The next leading cause of death is suicide.
According to one source, automobile accidents kill about 33,000 a year, roughly the same number as guns. I once read an article about airplane crashes, which noted that the most dangerous part of the flight is the ride over to the airport. And the reality is that the most dangerous part of the movie theater experience is the ride over, not the threat of a mass shooting at the theater.
I studied media effects in graduate school, and there is a great study by researchers Shanto Iyengar and Donald Kinder called “News That Matters.” They did a series of experiments on their subjects to test the impact of news media, and what they found is that news does not tell people what to think, but it has an enormous role in agenda setting – or, namely, what to think about.
The wall-to-wall coverage of mass shootings has likely elevated the public’s perceived importance of those events. Now, how they respond to the news coverage varies – we have seen the left move toward gun control, and the right has focused on exclusion of refugees or, in Donald Trump’s case, all Muslims, while arguing that what we really need is an armed citizenry.
The reality is that an armed citizenry will probably not reduce the number of mass shootings in this country, but instead increase the number of accidental deaths and perhaps suicides.
I am not suggesting we ignore tragedies or fail to take reasonable steps to prevent future tragedies. What I am suggesting, however, is that we are far more likely to die from heart disease and cancer, and therefore, if we really want to prolong our lives, we should focus our time and money on research into those diseases coupled with better dietary and exercise habits.
Why? Because we are 36 times more likely to die from those two afflictions than at the hands of a gun. And we are probably 75 times more likely to die from heart disease and cancer than we are to be shot and killed by someone else.
Gun control may be important, finding ways to stop ISIS is undoubtedly important as well, but neither is as important as diet, exercise and research into cancer and heart disease.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
Funny and sly how you leave out the fact that there was a woman involved who wasn’t native and that they were all Muslim.
I’ll admit I could have phrased it more artfully, but that wasn’t the point. The word gunmen wasn’t meant to be gender specific and the point was not whether they were exclusively native, but rather that native residents made up the bulk of the participants, and therefore excluding foreign born people is not THE solution. And of course, it was a very small point in a much larger essay.
No, the fact that one of the terrorists was a foreign Muslim woman is very important to the conversation. Just a couple of weeks ago we had our president chastising that we were afraid of “widows and orphans”. Betcha he wants to walk that one back.
But a side note in the point I’m making here – which is a disproportionate response to a tragic but otherwise small scale event.
Small scale event, except that they planned for more, may have accomplices that weren’t caught, and it comes from the same religion / culture / political movement which killed over 3,000 on 9/11 and killed many innocent citizens weeks ago in Paris.
This also looks to be a Hate Crime, another Muslim attack during a Christian celebration (Christmas party).
“By the numbers, about 33,000 Americans die every year from firearms. From 2001 to 2013, guns killed more people in this country than AIDS, drug overdoses, war, and terrorism combined. But the majority of those deaths are in fact, self-inflicted, suicide.”
And this is one of the reasons that in my safety counseling and in my participation with the Brady campaign, my personal emphasis has always been on the means to decrease gun related injury. There are many ways that one can be injured by a gun. Some are more numerically common than others. We could greatly benefit as a society if we stopped hiding behind excuses such as “the problem is only …X…” or “they are trying to take away your guns”. While this may be true for a few, it is not true for most of us who would focus on research to find actual ways of reducing gun injuries and who continuously find our efforts stymied by those so blinded by one line of our Constitution, or by their profits, that they cannot see that there might be many safer alternatives that people might actually find preferable to the current products if we were only allowed to find out what they are.
BP
“Funny and sly how you leave out the fact that there was a woman involved who wasn’t native and that they were all Muslim.”
Funny and sly how you have not chosen to comment on the fact that the Colorado Planned Parenthood shooter was a native, white, radical Christian, supposedly defending unborn babies by…..killing those abortionists…..oh wait….killing a policeman, a mother of two accompanying a friend, and a non medical vet who just happened to be there.
Not all terrorists are Muslim. It is simply easier to identify them.
But wait, there is another easily discernible factor. The vast majority of these shooters /terrorists are men. Now men are easy to discern from women. So using the logic of Donald Trump, what we really should be doing is to put all men on watch lists, segregate them so that they cannot harm the demonstrably less violent women and not allow any new men into the country until our leaders find out “what is going on”. Sound good to you BP ? If not, why not ? That is the logic Trump is using to manipulate with fear.
That had nothing to do with David’s point or sentence. You’re the one interjecting this. David was referring to the two recent Muslim terrorist incidents and left out some key facts.
BP
Agree with your post as written. However, I believe that not only should we not overblow the impact of mass shootings as compared with other forms of gun related injury, we should not overblow our fear of Muslims as the perpetrators of these acts when they are not the single largest identifiable group. Thus the relevance.
Yes, the chances of being killed by a Muslim terrorist are slim but if a few more incidents were to take place then the chances of our economy taking a nose dive are great.
Cops have killed 1,115 of your country men since last New Year’s Day. that’s almost 40 times the number of Americans killed by foreign terrorists this year. That homegrown terror is more imminent and concerning to me.
Yes, we already know that you seem to have a hate for cops, maybe it’s just me but I’ll take my chances with cops anyday before Muslim terrorists.
I can’t change the numbers to suit your idealized view of the world. 40:1
as a musician he seems to have had negative experiences with cops that you have not experienced.
however, the point that david makes and you have avoided is that you are more likely to win the lottery than meet your end through muslim terrorists and you are far more likely to die through a heat attack or cancer, so what should you be concerning yourself with?
The difference is one is a natural death.
you’re still dead at the end of it. it’s a preservation of life issue – i get it – but if we want to preserve as much life as possible, attacking cancer is a better cause than attacking terrorists (which actually will make the problem worse).
With deaths from mass shooters in the USA at 312, that’s still make cops 4 times as deadly as mass shooters, for perspective.
and perhaps more importantly, mass shooters who aren’t muslim far more prevalent than those who are.
BTW, that’s such a bullschit number. How many were killed by cops in order to protect themselves or others? For instance, should they not have killed the two terrorists in San Bernardino. Yes, there are some bad cops that do unjustifiably kill people, but very few.
“BTW, that’s such a bullschit number. How many were killed by cops in order to protect themselves or others? For instance, should they not have killed the two terrorists in San Bernardino. Yes, there are some bad cops that do unjustifiably kill people, but very few.”
you keep saying that, but as the vanguard article showed yesterday, it’s not just that some bad cops unjustifiably kill people, but a lot more cover up for that fact. and what is the number of unjustified killings, is it 50% 10% 1%, makes a big difference, but the problem is you don’t know the answer, so you don’t know how big a problem it actually is and yet you keep defending the cops as though you do.
That aroma is coming from elsewhere I think. In this year, US cops have killed over ten time as many civilians as Germany has since 1998. No other civilized country comes even close to that.
Granted, but you don’t know the number either yet you and others keep crucifying cops.
i spend my days going over reports of shootings – i’ve seen enough reports to know there is a problem. how large a problem, i don’t know. and i still think we are scratching the surface because most police officers aren’t wearing body cams yet and we know that police would have gotten away with crimes already but for the cameras. so while i agree with your comment, i think it misses the larger point.
Cops typically kill violent felons, not Nancy next door celebrating a religious holiday. This was a Hate Crime.
You mean violent felons like Tamir Rice?
Which is why I used the word “typical”.
But I’m all with the Chicago liberals that Rahm Emanuel covered up the killing of at least one citizen there for political purposes, and he should be immediately impeached.
The killing of these two mass murders and Hate Crimes against Christians is a more typical scenario.
Tamir Rice was in Cleveland. I don’t think you’re established what the typical situation is. I think you’re assuming it.
I knew Tamir was in Cleveland.
David, do you want Rahm Emanuel impeached for the year-plus coverup?
I certainly want the prosecutor gone, perhaps Emanuel as well. I was hoping Garcia would take him out earlier this year, but he fell short. I don’t know what process they have for removal in Illinois.
BP
“Yes, the chances of being killed by a Muslim terrorist are slim but if a few more incidents were to take place then the chances of our economy taking a nose dive are great.”
Only if we allow our own fear to overcome our sense of proportion as we did with the Ebola scare where millions and millions of health care dollars were diverted to Ebola protection processes and gear when we had real and imminent risks ( flu) occurring at the same time the prevention of which would have benefited greatly from these funds.
Terrorists are only effective if they are successful in inducing terror in their target populations. If we stand strong in our beliefs in our open society and in our own principles and values….they will fail. We are doing exactly what they want us to do if we abandon our principles out of fear. They know that they cannot defeat us militarily. They will truly win only when we abolish our own principles and destroy our own society from within.
Human nature is human nature. Look at what happened to the economy after 911. Stock market took a dive and the economy took a long time to recover.
We can overcome our fears – and to make wise decisions, we must.
Correct. But this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be vigilant, shouldn’t play defense and / or offense, and shouldn’t root out evil and evil doers. We don’t need to act like Nevil Chamberlain. We can identify the offenders and come up with strategies and tactics to defeat them. The number one role of the Federal government is to keep citizens safe.
we’ve also been lucky that the Haters from the primarily the Middle East are poor at making bombs. If the Underwear and Shoe Bomber were better at their craft, there would be more dead Americans.
Is that why our “leaders from within” try to pass new laws about their fear?
Who is doing this? And why don’t they go to the people they think are threatening us? Explain to the people in the Middle East the Common Sense this would make, and they will give them up? Instead many legislators are trying to pass laws they swore to uphold, any legal loophole they can find, and yet do nothing for the war zones they already have in the country, and the world?
I’m going to skip right to the heart of the matter – 9/11. The fact of the matter is this nation is not immune from vicious and large scale terrorist attacks. We found this out to our cost on 9/11, in which approximately 3,000 U.S. citizens perished along with much of our financial sector. Law enforcement is constantly trying to foil similar plots 24/7. Terrorists can fail over and over again, but just one failure to find the terrorists by law enforcement can result in another 9/11 – AND THAT IS THE GREAT FEAR.
So then the question becomes how do we prevent another 9/11? The San Bernadino shootings and the Boston Marathon bombing give little comfort, instead reminding us that as a nation we are still vulnerable to mass terrorist attacks. Prevention of terrorist attacks is a tough, tough question, especially because of the terrorists’ use of the internet. My preference would be to have law enforcement keep better track of internet/cell phone traffic. There is a privacy trade-off to be sure, but it is one I am willing to accede to, rather than some of the other suggested solutions that seem inhumane/extreme. JMO
Another problem is that the terrorists are 1) now using encryption technology, and 2) we are still fighting political correctness in every sector of our nation. Neighbors of this couple knew there was something wrong, but the PC culture prevented them from saying anything. (The neighbors happen to be primarily Latino.)
Terrorists were planning to bomb and flood the Tube in London, and there have been large scale attacks planned here as well. We have over 1,000 terrorist cells in America, an unsecure southern border, a blind president, and a confused Congress.
Yes, Trump could have chosen his words better. In the short term, we could ban immigration and travel from 10-20 countries from which these terrorists come from until we root out our own multiple problems and issues in security and enforcement. Jimmy Carter banned citizens of Iran from coming to America during the hostage crisis. It is common sense.
Anon: “AND THAT IS THE GREAT FEAR.”
How long will you use 9/11 as a justification for your unreasonable fears? It has been 14 years since the event, are you going to remain fearful for another 14? Twice that? Forever?
There is no doubt that the world is a dangerous place, with many bad people wanting to do bad things to others. I guarantee that each one of us is going to die sometime; life is a fatal disease after all. But is that any justification for living our lives in fear of what might happen? Greater than 3000 people died on 9/11. It was a horrendous act and we should mourn all the victims. We should demand that our government remain vigilant to prevent similar attacks in the future, but we should not allow it to rule how we live our lives. Unreasonable fear is just that, unreasonable. Unreasonable, irrational and frankly, downright stupid.
” Unreasonable fear is just that, unreasonable. Unreasonable, irrational and frankly, downright stupid.”
And just what the terrorists want.
This is a false comparison, and by now I assume you know that.
Nope. Not. That is a apt comparison. And I assume you know that.
You know better than this, Frankly. Really you do. I’ll just let Snopes spell it out for you.
http://www.snopes.com/jimmy-carter-banned-iranian-immigrants/
This is simple. Iran is a country. Islam is a religion. Do I need to go on?
Radical Islam Don. Radical Islam.
And we were not at war is Iran.
You are making it sound like a profound difference to defend what Jimmy Carter did and what Trump is recommending. I think you need to rethink your position on this… it really destroys your credibility as a balanced thinker and puts you in that 100% leftist ideologue camp.
Why did Jimmy Carter ban Iranians from coming to America? Do you think ALL Iranians were a threat to the USA?
It is a profound difference. This stupid internet meme has taken on a life of its own, from people who seem to want to defend Trump’s position. It’s indefensible.
Donald Trump: “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.
I don’t see the word “radical” in there, Frankly. It’s really clear. “Muslims.” Period. That’s what he said. See the quote? Really simple. A straight religious test for admission to the United States. Unconstitutional, bigoted, unenforceable. And completely indefensible. And yet you and others have glommed onto this internet meme to defend it.
Why do you do this, Frankly? I will never understand the rhetorical stuff you choose to use on the Vanguard.
Frankly, I saw that the other day, Jimmy Carter must therefor be an Islamophobe if we go by liberal rhetoric.
Don Shor: Trump also clarified his comments in numerous follow up interviews.
1. A ban would be temporary.
2. There would be exceptions – say, for example, if we wanted to give a green card or refugee status to a Muslim who had worked with the US Military as an interpreter.
3. The issue is our security.