NEW YORK, NY – New York City’s criminal legal system “stands at a pivotal moment,” according to new research released by the Data Collaborative for Justice and the University of Maryland. After years of declining crime rates and reduced enforcement, the city is facing renewed tensions over public safety, enforcement practices, incarceration, and racial disparities. The findings were released by Justice at a Crossroads Project in recognition of the need for data-driven policy debates.
The Crossroads Project aims to “ground essential policy discussions in objective data” and track the “pendulum swings” shaping criminal justice trends in the city from the 1990s to the present. To that end, researchers released two companion studies: Reexamining Crime, Enforcement, Incarceration, and Racial Disparities and Studying Crimes in New York City Using the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).
The first report documents dramatic declines in both violent and property crimes from 1990 to 2019—violent crimes dropped 77%, and property crimes fell 81%. However, between 2019 and 2023, violent crime increased by 18%, while property crime surged 58%. Notably, the number of shooting incidents doubled from 777 in 2019 to 1,562 in 2021 before falling again to 974 in 2023.
The second report offers a rare look at unreported crimes using NCVS data. It found that nonfatal violence and property crime declined over 60% from 1997 to 2008, then largely stabilized, with slight increases through 2021. Trust in law enforcement has declined: from 2005 to 2021, the share of victims reporting property crime to the NYPD dropped from 40% to just over 20%, while the number of victims citing “police wouldn’t help” as a reason for non-reporting rose significantly.
The study reveals a striking decline in law enforcement actions over the past decade, followed by a recent uptick. Pedestrian stops dropped by 99% from 2011 to 2021, then tripled under the Adams administration to 25,386 in 2024. Criminal summonses dropped 91% between 2006 and 2021 but doubled again by 2024. Civil summonses, particularly for minor violations like carrying alcohol in public, rose eightfold between 2021 and 2024.
Drug enforcement also declined sharply. Felony drug arrests fell 84% since 1990, and misdemeanor drug possession arrests fell 77% since 2000. Marijuana arrests dropped from more than 51,000 in 2011 to zero by 2023.
Meanwhile, prosecutors increasingly declined to pursue low-level cases. From 2017 to 2023, the misdemeanor declination rate more than doubled—from 8% to 19%. Bail-setting also declined significantly before and after the 2020 bail reform: by 2023, bail was imposed in only 6% of misdemeanor cases and 26% of nonviolent felony cases. Conviction rates for misdemeanors dropped from 36% in 1990 to just 8% in 2023.
Between 1990 and 2020, New York City achieved large-scale decarceration. The daily jail population fell from a peak of over 20,000 in 1991 to under 4,000 in 2020. However, the jail population has since rebounded to over 6,800 as of 2025. State prison populations also declined sharply, particularly for drug-related offenses, which dropped by 86% since their 1999 peak.
At the same time, alternatives to incarceration (ATI) have expanded. While enrollment dipped during periods of lower crime and arrests, it hit a high of more than 19,000 participants in 2023.
Despite overall declines in system involvement across racial and ethnic groups, disparities remain. Black and Hispanic New Yorkers continue to face disproportionately high rates of enforcement and incarceration. Between 2019 and 2023, Black-white disparities worsened across most metrics except for summonses and jail sentences. The greatest disparities were found in prison incarceration and pedestrian stops.
The Crossroads Project warns that New York City is at a key decision point. While long-term trends show progress in reducing crime and incarceration, recent reversals in enforcement and trust underscore the need for a balanced approach. With the city legally mandated to close Rikers Island, researchers urge policymakers to expand mental health services, speed up case processing, and invest in community-based alternatives to incarceration.
“Understanding New York City’s crime trends, the experiences of crime victims, and the history of the City’s response to crime will shed light on the choices the City faces today,” the researchers conclude.
Both reports are available through the Data Collaborative for Justice and the Justice at a Crossroads Project.
