NEW YORK– The Center for Migration Studies (CMS) has released two major data briefings addressing the devastating impacts of mass deportation policies and looming restrictions to the Child Tax Credit for millions of children in immigrant households.
Founded in 1964, CMS is a New York-based think tank and educational institute that produces rigorous, evidence-based research on migration, refugee protection, and immigrant integration. Its latest reports examine how current and proposed immigration enforcement strategies, including those under the Trump administration, threaten the stability of U.S. citizen children with undocumented family members.
The first briefing, authored by analysts Lisiecki, Velasco, and Watson and entitled “What Will Deportations Mean for the Child Welfare System?” estimates that 5.62 million U.S. citizen children live with at least one undocumented household member. These children—roughly 8% of all U.S. citizen children—are at significant risk of family separation under mass deportation scenarios.
The authors reviewed enforcement trends from fiscal years 2021 to 2024 and noted that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested approximately 125,000 immigrants and deported an average of 38,000 annually—numbers notably lower than those during Trump’s first term. Under the Biden administration, ICE enforcement primarily targeted undocumented immigrants already incarcerated in local jails and prisons.
However, the report warns of a sharp escalation under Trump’s second administration. The administration rescinded “sensitive locations” guidance, which had previously restricted immigration enforcement in places like schools, churches, and hospitals. In addition, expedited removal policies were expanded to allow the deportation of recent border crossers without the opportunity for due process.
The passage of the Laken Riley Act further intensified concerns. The law mandates detention of any undocumented individual charged—but not necessarily convicted—of specific crimes. Lisiecki et al. note that the Trump administration has also utilized the Alien Enemies Act, a rarely invoked law dating back to 1798, to remove migrants from select countries—such as Venezuela—without full legal protections.
According to the CMS report, approximately 3.8% of all U.S. citizen children—more than 2.6 million—are at risk of being left without a parent in their household if mass deportation policies proceed unchecked. The authors point out that in such cases, families must make difficult decisions: whether to take children to their country of origin or leave them in the U.S. in the care of relatives or sponsors.
The second briefing, “New Estimates of the Number of United States Citizens and Legal Permanent Resident Children Who May Lose Eligibility for the Child Tax Credit,” was produced in collaboration with the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University. It focuses on the financial consequences of proposals that would require Social Security Numbers (SSNs) for children to qualify for the federal Child Tax Credit.
According to the report, over 4.5 million citizen and legal permanent resident children with SSNs could lose access to this critical benefit. The states projected to see the greatest number of affected children include California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois—with California and Texas alone accounting for about 40% of the total. The study singles out Texas’s 29th Congressional District, where an estimated 53,000 children could lose their Child Tax Credit benefits if the proposed SSN requirement becomes law.
Critics warn that stripping this benefit from millions of low-income families would exacerbate child poverty, particularly in immigrant communities. The Child Tax Credit has long served as a cornerstone of anti-poverty efforts, and the proposed change would roll back recent gains in reducing hardship among U.S.-born children of immigrants.
