Washington — Crime in the United States is dropping across nearly every major category, but that decline has not translated into a reduced sense of fear or broad public support for new safety measures such as the deployment of the National Guard into American cities, according to reporting from The Marshall Project.
The Marshall Project states that Americans are deeply polarized politically, and that this divide has increasingly shaped the way people perceive safety and crime. Drawing on data from Gallup, the reporting shows that Republicans were more likely to believe crime was rising during the Obama and Biden administrations, while Democrats showed the opposite pattern.
However, The Marshall Project highlights a notable shift in Gallup’s October 2025 polling. They report that while 90 percent of Republicans in 2024 said crime had increased over the previous year, just over half agreed with that statement in 2025. Gallup also found that Democrats were more likely to say crime was rising this year compared with 2024, but the shift was far smaller than the movement seen among Republicans.
National murder rates began declining in 2023 and have continued on that trajectory since then — well before the start of Donald Trump’s second term, The Marshall Project reports.
While polling suggests Americans may be acknowledging safer conditions, the reporting notes that fewer than half of those surveyed by Gallup in 2025 said they believed crime was increasing nationwide — the lowest share since 2001. However, the decline was driven largely by Republicans shifting their perceptions under the current administration.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety & Justice at the University of Chicago, told The Marshall Project that both Democrats and Republicans increasingly respond to crime-related questions in ways that mirror their party alignment, even if those responses contradict personal experience.
The Marshall Project also reports that Americans are voting more consistently along party lines, while fewer are willing to cross party boundaries for individual candidates. They note that 43 percent of Americans now identify as independents — the highest percentage recorded in more than 30 years.
As polarization deepens, The Marshall Project reports that it is reflected in the types of crime-fighting strategies people support. They note that while most Americans opposed Trump’s decision to deploy the National Guard into U.S. cities and his proposal to charge 14-year-olds as adults in Washington, D.C., his Republican base largely supported both measures.
Gallup’s October survey found that military deployment was the most polarizing of the five interventions included in the questionnaire, The Marshall Project reports. Researchers also measured partisan reaction to trying violent juveniles as adults, increasing resources for law enforcement, investing in social programs and supporting the death penalty. All showed partisan divides, although policies that would legally hold parents responsible for crimes involving their child’s firearm did not reflect a significant political gap.
According to The Marshall Project, partisanship is only one factor shaping fear of crime. Women, low-income households and people of color are more likely to report feeling unsafe walking at night in their communities.
The NPR/Ipsos poll cited by The Marshall Project found that Americans are more concerned about partisanship than crime itself. When asked to identify their top three concerns, 43 percent of respondents named political extremism and polarization, while just one-quarter listed crime or gun violence.
The Marshall Project notes a slowly growing segment of adults — primarily Democrats and Independents — who support criminal justice reforms. Their reporting highlights Gallup data showing that more than two-thirds of Americans agree that additional resources should go toward addressing the root causes of crime, including mental health needs, homelessness and substance use disorders.
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