NEW YORK — A new national analysis of federal enrollment data shows sweeping racial shifts across American higher education in the first year after the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision banning race-conscious admissions, with sharp declines at the most selective universities and significant gains at public flagship and less-selective institutions.
The data confirm what many education experts predicted following the ruling in Students for Fair Admissions: while highly selective institutions enrolled fewer Black and Latino freshmen, public flagships and a broad range of four-year colleges experienced notable increases in underrepresented minority enrollment. The findings are based on 2024 freshman enrollment figures released in January and analyzed by Class Action, a nonprofit organization focused on promoting equity and accountability in higher education.
According to the analysis, freshman enrollment of underrepresented minority groups increased by 8% at public flagship universities nationwide. At the nation’s 50 most selective institutions, however, Black freshman enrollment declined by 27% and Latino freshman enrollment fell by 10%.
The report represents one of the first large-scale efforts to examine demographic changes across more than 3,000 colleges and universities following the Supreme Court decision. While some highly selective institutions had already released their own data indicating declines in Black and Latino admissions, the broader federal dataset provides a more comprehensive picture of how students redistributed across the higher education system.
Researchers concluded that higher rejection rates for Black and Hispanic applicants at top-tier institutions contributed to what experts describe as a “cascade” effect. Highly qualified Black and Latino students who, prior to the ruling, may have enrolled at Ivy League and similarly selective schools instead matriculated at less-selective institutions. That shift, in turn, may have displaced other students further down the selectivity spectrum, altering enrollment patterns across multiple tiers of colleges.
Research into California’s statewide ban on affirmative action in 1998 identified similar cascade dynamics, with long-term implications for employment opportunities and earnings among students who ultimately attended less-selective institutions. The new report concludes that the Supreme Court decision reduced the number of students of color attending institutions with the highest graduation rates and the strongest post-graduation income outcomes, a trend the authors warn could contribute to persistent racial inequities in income and employment.
While public flagships appeared to benefit most significantly from the enrollment shift, four-year public colleges overall also saw gains. Latino freshman enrollment increased by 7% at four-year public institutions, while Black freshman enrollment rose by 4%.
Several private four-year universities that are less selective than Ivy League institutions also recorded substantial increases. At Syracuse University, Black freshman enrollment grew by 17%. At the University of Miami, Latino freshman enrollment surged by 45%.
At the very top of the selectivity spectrum, demographic shifts were pronounced. At the 12 institutions often referred to as the “Ivy Plus” — which includes the eight Ivy League universities as well as Duke University, Stanford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Chicago — Black freshman enrollment declined by two percentage points. That drop represented a 25% decline in the share of Black students in freshman classes at those schools.
Some of the most dramatic increases occurred in the South. Black freshman enrollment rose by 50% at the University of Mississippi. Louisiana State University saw a 30% increase in Black freshman enrollment. At the University of Tennessee-Knoxville and the University of South Carolina, Latino enrollment increased by more than one-third.
James S. Murphy, senior fellow at Class Action, said portions of the 2024 data were striking. “I was stunned when I saw things like the University of Mississippi seeing large gains in enrollment of Black students and the University of Miami seeing a big boost in Latino students,” Murphy said.
The demographic changes have not gone unnoticed on campus. Lamarcus Lenoir, a 19-year-old sophomore from Tupelo, Mississippi, said he recognized the shift when he arrived at the University of Mississippi in fall 2024. “My friends and I mentioned how many Black students there were and how surprised we were,” Lenoir said.
Despite overall gains at many public institutions, the data revealed an unexpected decline in Black enrollment at historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), though a smaller number of the most prestigious HBCUs reported increases. Some experts had predicted that HBCUs would see widespread enrollment growth following the Supreme Court’s decision. Murphy speculated that higher tuition costs at some private HBCUs may have led students to choose public flagship universities instead.
Officials from several universities did not respond to requests for comment. Many institutions have faced political pressure from the Trump administration not to promote minority enrollment efforts.
The 2024 freshman data capture only the first year following implementation of the Supreme Court’s ruling. Education researchers say further enrollment cycles will be needed to determine whether the shifts represent a temporary realignment or a longer-term restructuring of racial demographics in American higher education.
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