In a wide-ranging conversation on Everyday Injustice, economist and policy researcher Jennifer Doleac argued that criminal justice reform should be driven less by ideology and more by evidence. Discussing her book The Science of Second Chances, Doleac said policymakers often adopt programs that sound compassionate or politically attractive without testing whether they reduce crime, improve lives or save money. Her central message was direct: governments should be willing to try new ideas, measure outcomes honestly and “fail fast” when programs do not work.
Doleac, now with Arnold Ventures, explained how economists use natural experiments to study policies that cannot ethically be tested through randomized trials. She pointed to research showing that increasing the certainty of being caught can deter crime more effectively than simply increasing sentence lengths. Using state expansions of DNA databases as one example, she said evidence suggests stronger detection tools may reduce repeat offending more than long prison terms, which she described as costly and often less effective once people age out of crime.
The interview also explored reforms that have fallen short. Doleac said research on “ban the box” hiring policies found unintended consequences, including increased racial disparities in hiring, while clean slate record-sealing laws have shown little measurable impact on employment outcomes so far. Rather than removing information and hoping behavior changes, she argued policymakers should identify what employers fear and directly address those concerns through better incentives, training and risk-sharing mechanisms.
Despite those critiques, Doleac struck an optimistic note. She said many effective reforms are practical, bipartisan and already within reach, from improving crime clearance rates to expanding interventions that help people avoid repeated system involvement. The larger challenge, she said, is cultural: rewarding leaders who admit when something is not working and pivot quickly toward better solutions. For a justice system often trapped between punishment politics and reform slogans, the interview offered a different framework — humility, experimentation and results.
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