NEW YORK — A new report from John Jay College’s Data Collaborative for Justice finds wide disparities in arrests, prosecution decisions, bail practices and sentencing outcomes across New York City boroughs, raising concerns about uneven administration of the criminal legal system and the possibility that outcomes may depend heavily on geography.
The report examines trends from 2021 to 2024 and finds that outcomes can vary widely depending on where an individual is arrested or prosecuted, pointing to the role of prosecutors and judges in shaping case outcomes. Researchers note that each borough operates within its own political, demographic and institutional context, with separate district attorneys, defense offices and court actors influencing decision-making at each stage of the process.
According to the report, arrests have risen sharply across the city, largely driven by low-level charges. Misdemeanor arrests increased by 70 percent, while nonviolent felony arrests rose by 64 percent. Brooklyn experienced the largest increases, including an 88 percent rise in misdemeanor arrests and a 73 percent increase in nonviolent felony arrests.
The report also highlights a dramatic increase in fare evasion arrests, which grew “more than elevenfold citywide,” from 900 cases in 2021 to over 10,000 in 2024. The report further highlights that other low-level charges, such as trespass, resisting arrest and drug possession, have also more than doubled during the same period. Researchers link these trends in part to increased enforcement of low-level offenses in recent years, particularly following policy shifts beginning in 2022.
Despite these increases in arrests, prosecutors in some boroughs declined to pursue low-level misdemeanor cases at significantly higher rates than others, according to the report. Manhattan and the Bronx had the highest declination rates, with Manhattan seeing sharp increases in decisions not to prosecute charges such as fare evasion and trespass.
The report attributes some of these trends to policy decisions by district attorneys, as well as the expansion of pre-arraignment diversion programs. These programs allow cases to be resolved without prosecution if individuals complete certain conditions, and their use increased substantially across all boroughs between 2021 and 2024.
The report continues and notes that misdemeanor conviction rates remained consistently low across boroughs. However, felony conviction rates were significantly higher. For nonviolent felonies, conviction rates “ranged from 68% in the Bronx to 86% in Queens and Manhattan,” while for violent felonies, rates “ranged from 71% in the Bronx to 95% in Staten Island.”
Pretrial decision-making also varied significantly by borough, particularly in felony cases. Judges in Manhattan and Queens were more likely to set bail or order detention in nonviolent felony cases, while the Bronx had the lowest rate of such decisions. At the same time, bail payment rates remained extremely low across all boroughs, often below 10 percent, indicating that setting bail frequently results in detention for those unable to pay.
The report’s final chapter focuses on sentencing, in which it showcases trends across boroughs when it comes to incarceration after sentencing. As noted in the report, “no more than 10% of misdemeanor arraignments ending in a conviction were sentenced to jail in any borough.”
The report also adds that for felonies, and considering “potentially confounding changes in people’s demographic, charge, and criminal history characteristics,” the only borough with statistically significant evidence is the Bronx. The report spotlights violent felony prison sentences, noting that the Bronx was at 42% and Manhattan was at 64%.
More broadly, sentencing outcomes varied considerably across the city. In 2024, prison sentences for felony convictions ranged from about 12 percent in Queens to 34 percent in Manhattan, reflecting substantial geographic differences even after accounting for case characteristics.
Although the report did not find consistent increases in prison sentencing overall, it notes that “Black and Hispanic people were significantly more likely than white people to be sentenced to prison, whereas women and youth under the age of 25 were significantly less likely to be imprisoned.” These disparities persisted even after controlling for other factors, underscoring ongoing concerns about racial inequities in the criminal legal system.
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