UNITED STATES — Increased immigration enforcement under the Trump administration has been linked to job losses among both undocumented immigrants and U.S.-born workers, according to a new economic study released this week.
The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, examined the labor market impacts of heightened Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity during 2025. Researchers found that increased immigration arrests corresponded with a 4% to 5% decline in employment among undocumented immigrants, particularly men, who reportedly accounted for approximately 90% of ICE arrests.
Researchers Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox analyzed monthly employment data in immigrant-heavy industries across regions that experienced significant increases in ICE enforcement activity. They compared employment trends in those areas with regions that did not experience similar surges in immigration arrests.
According to the study, areas with heightened ICE activity saw approximately 7,500 fewer undocumented men employed. Researchers suggested that fear of detention or deportation may discourage immigrants from continuing to work, creating what economists describe as a “chilling effect.”
The report also found that employment losses extended beyond undocumented workers. Researchers concluded that one U.S.-born worker without a college degree lost employment for every six undocumented male workers who stopped working.
Job losses among U.S.-born workers were concentrated in industries heavily dependent on immigrant labor, including agriculture, manufacturing and construction. Economists noted that reductions in lower-skilled labor can affect broader workplace operations and reduce opportunities for other employees within those industries.
The findings challenge claims from the Trump administration that increased deportations and immigration enforcement create more employment opportunities for American workers. Administration officials have repeatedly argued that reducing undocumented labor participation would strengthen the domestic labor market.
In response to the study, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson stated that the administration believes there is sufficient labor potential among U.S.-born workers and defended ongoing immigration enforcement efforts.
However, the study’s authors argued that the available data suggest the opposite effect. Economist Chloe East stated that heightened ICE activity has negatively impacted not only immigrant workers but also U.S.-born workers in affected industries.
The paper builds on previous research examining the economic consequences of immigration enforcement. A 2024 study focused on the construction industry similarly found that deportations of immigrants working in lower-skilled positions could contribute to employment declines for native-born workers in higher-skilled construction jobs, including electricians and plumbers.
Researchers argue that industries relying heavily on immigrant labor often function through interconnected job structures, meaning labor shortages in one area can affect employment opportunities across entire sectors.
The study also places current immigration enforcement policies within a broader historical context. According to the researchers, prior periods of mass deportation efforts in the United States produced similar labor market disruptions rather than widespread employment gains for U.S.-born workers.
The findings arrive amid continued national debate over immigration policy and the economic effects of deportation campaigns. Immigration enforcement has remained a central focus of the Trump administration, which has expanded detention and deportation operations since returning to office in 2025.
Economists involved in the study said their findings suggest that large-scale immigration enforcement may carry broader economic consequences beyond immigrant communities alone.
The report contributes to ongoing discussions regarding labor shortages, workforce dependency on immigrant labor, and the relationship between immigration policy and the U.S. economy.
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