NEW ORLEANS, La. — Nationally recognized crime analyst Jess Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and the weekly newsletter Jeff-alytics, reported that current crime data projects the U.S. murder rate could reach a record low in 2026, according to FBI data trends dating back to the 1960s.
“The FBI started estimating a national murder rate in the 1950s and has used a reasonably consistent methodology since 1958,” Asher wrote. He stated that the FBI has never previously reported a murder rate lower than the most recent estimates.
Asher reported that in 2026 there is an anticipated 10 percent drop in murders, despite acknowledging that it is still early to make a precise estimate regarding how much the U.S. murder rate will decline. He predicted that the Crime in the Nation report will record “the fewest murders nationally since 1967 and a murder rate below 4 per 100,000, which would easily be the lowest murder rate ever recorded.”
The predictions are derived from data collected in 2014 and 2025, including what Asher describes as the lowest murder rates recorded by the FBI that correlate with the same pattern of declining murder rates projected for 2026.
He outlined that in 2014 there was a record low rate of 4.4 murders per 100,000 people, as reported by the FBI, and that “the 2025 murder rate will be 4.1 per 100k.” He reiterated that this pattern of large declines should remain visible once the FBI revises and finalizes its data accumulation in 2026.
According to Asher, sources such as the Gun Violence Archive support predictions of lower U.S. murder rates in 2026 compared to previous months, even though the rate of decline has slowed. The archive reveals there is a “10.3 percent drop in 2026 relative to 2025 as of mid-May.”
Data collected across 30 major cities through April confirms a slower decline in murders compared to data from two years ago. Asher stated the study “confirms a large drop is likely occurring with murder down 19.1 percent in that sample.”
“The Real-Time Crime Index and Major Cities Chiefs Association reported 19.9 and 17.7 percent drops through March,” Asher wrote. He explained that analysis of multiple data sources allows trends in crime rates to be projected months before official FBI reports are released.
Asher also addressed the importance of understanding the distinction between the FBI’s murder rate and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s homicide rate for purposes of his analysis, noting that both rates have been decreasing over time but are measured differently.
The CDC’s recorded homicide rates were not the lowest on record compared to the FBI’s murder rates, according to Asher. He noted that the CDC reports “a 2025 homicide rate of 5.1 per 100k … slightly above 2014’s rate (5 per 100k) and the recorded homicide rate in the 1950s.”
Asher also addressed doubts people may have regarding his projections. He challenged the notion that unusual cases in which murder rates did not decline in later months undermine the broader trend, writing that the change in murder rates since 2018 from the 30-city sample “has been within 2.5 percentage points of the final year end percent change reported by the FBI.”
Challenges to the projections were also addressed by Asher, who highlighted the circumstances in 2020 and 2021 during the post-COVID-19 era, when murder rates surged during June and July. He stated that although those increases were unforeseen, a reversal in the current trend remains possible but unlikely given the continuing decline observed throughout the year.
Asher concluded that regardless of how the remainder of the year performs in the U.S., the first half “likely set a record for the lowest murder rate ever recorded in 2025.”
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“FBI DATA PROJECTS US MURDER RATE TO REACH RECORD LOW BY 2026”
Thank you President Trump.