“We are easy marks for those who want to control what we believe. So, we must be on guard, questioning our own assumptions and watching for the tricks of manipulators….we should be cultivating more humility and less certainty.” – Sherman K. Stein
Have you ever been listening to the news, and the statistics in the story don’t make sense to you? Sherman K. Stein would say you’re on the right path – at least, you’re questioning what you hear.
In his new book, Survival Guide for Outsiders: How to Protect Yourself from Politicians, Experts and Other Insiders, Stein offers wide-ranging information to the layperson on how the media, government and other organizations use fuzzy math and data to push their agendas. Dr. Stein is a professor emeritus of mathematics at UC Davis.
Using examples from history and the business world, Stein warns his readers about many tactics used to massage numbers. In the chapter titled “The Dead Fish Principle,” Stein discusses the use of averages to create a preferred scenario – “Beware of averages for an average of a bunch of numbers is an ideal place to hide a number.” The dead fish principle warns to “assume the opposite of what you are told and also that most of what you need to know is concealed.”
Stein, who also has taught critical thinking courses, takes on the role of the expert in our society. Stein notes a professional in a field is behind a desk doing her work and seldom seen in public. The “Expert-Creep” starts to happen when a professional migrates to a world in front of microphones and cameras talking about trends in her field. This is pundit territory – Stein writes the “experts who assigned confidence estimates of at least 80% to their predictions were wrong 55% of the time. Many of them said they were basically correct for the event they predicted almost happened.” He also discusses the role of what he calls the “shaman,” a public figure who makes others feel like everything is under control, such as former chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan or U.S. presidents.
In the chapter, “Beware the Number,” Stein says the first rule of wrangling with numbers and thinking critically is asking “Where did that number come from? Show me the raw data. What assumptions did you feed to the computer? May I see the calculations?”
Stein writes in depth about the folly of many economic predictions, probability calculations and trend forecasting. He also discusses the contrast between verbal and numerical estimates of likelihood – what does “almost certain” actually mean? What does “unlikely” actually describe? Stein cites studies that show there isn’t a consensus on the meaning of terms, such as “frequently” or “probable.” Even statements like “It seems to me…” should be quantified.
The role of scientific method in questioning numbers and auditing predictions after an event has occurred is also covered, using fascinating examples from the Vietnam War to economics to natural disasters. This is where “The GRIMP” (Great Risk with Minute Probability) comes in. Stein talks about the GRIMP as it relates to the evaluation of whether or not to take an action and the aftermath if things go terribly wrong.
Stein, using his training in mathematics and his love of history, gives the reader the tools to sniff out agendas and propaganda behind dubious number crunching. Stein writes “our experts may not be any wiser than we are or know more that we do. We should be ready to call their bluff, especially if they use numbers that overwhelm us.”
He urges readers to “tithe our time to our democracy” by questioning and researching numbers we hear from our government, corporations and the media in order to be an informed electorate.
Sherman K. Stein Biography
Sherman Stein is professor emeritus of mathematics at the University of California at Davis. In addition to Survival Guide for Outsiders, he is the author of How the Other Half Thinks: Adventures in Mathematical Reasoning, Strength in Numbers: Discovering the Joy and Power of Mathematics in Everyday Life and Mathematics: The Man-Made Universe.
After growing up in Minneapolis and Los Angeles, Stein spent his undergraduate years at Caltech and received his Ph.D. from Columbia University. He lives in Davis, Calif. with his wife Hannah, where he enjoys, bicycling, walking, painting and keeping tabs on three children and seven grandchildren.
Book Facts:
Title: Survival Guide for Outsiders: How to Protect Yourself from Politicians, Experts and Other Insiders
Authors: Sherman K. Stein
Sold at: Amazon.com
Format: Paperback, 6 x 9
Page count: 258 pages
Price: $14.95
Well, sounds like something interesting. However I don’t know if the real practical value is the same, but $14.95 isn’t that much. I always had problems with statistics in college, I even had to get statistics homework help
to pass an exam.