As we discussed at the end of March, Proposition 1B ensures that schools receive $9.3 billion over time, so that the money cut during the current budget crisis is not permanent. The payments to schools will come out of the newly created rainy day fund, but not until 2011-2012 when the state’s fiscal outlook is expected to improve. However, in order for that to occur, there must actually be a rainy day fund. This means that Prop 1B is contingent upon Prop 1A passing. If both Prop 1A and Prop 1B pass, it would guarantee $8 billion in school payments.
As it turns out that is just the tip of the iceberg for education. To see that we need to do a little math. In March, it was announced that the state was already $8 billion in the hole despite the budget agreement from February 20, 2009. Frankly, it may be worse than that by now, but let us assume that is the case. The ballot propositions provide for a variety of shifting and borrowing on monies. If they do not pass, the state will have to find another $7 billion. So the total impact will be roughly $15 billion that the state has to find.
He warned that if these ballot propositions fail:
“Education will take the single largest hit its ever taken in its history.”
Fear-mongering? Hyperbole?
Well here’s his reasoning.
How does he see the propositions playing out?
“I think the propositions are going to be very tough. Tough in the sense that most of the activists at this convention believe that this was the wrong kind of decision for us to make. On the other hand at the Republican convention they were arguing the same thing. I always worry when our Democrats are on the same side as [Insurance Commissioner and Republican Governor Candidate] Steve Poizner and [Republican Governor Candidate] Meg Witman and Howard Jarvis Tax Associations.
I believe that we will hopefully have the support coming out of this convention at least of the majority of folks. That will go, hit the ballot, and win on particularly [Proposition] 1A. And then we’re going to have to do those larger things I’ve mentioned. We’re going to have to get rid of the two-thirds [budget requirement]. We’re go to really have to reform the tax structure. But we don’t live another day on May 20 unless we get this.”
What happens on May 20?
“May 20 is really clear to me, it’s an all-cuts budget, period. There’s not one more Republican in that house that is going to vote for a tax increase. We lose twenty billion dollars plus in taxes. May 20 is an all-cuts budget, period. I expect it to be a quick budget because we’re not going to have to convince a Republican to vote for this one because there will not be a tax increase in it. It will be the most painful quick budget in California history.
I think there is no other way to look at this thing. We can’t borrow. We can’t tax. So it will be an all-cuts budget hurting probably the most vulnerable in California in a way that we never intended.”
How bad will that hurt education?
“I think education will take the single largest hit its ever taken in its history. There is just no way around it. The fact that Prop 1B is tied to Prop 1A, there’s $9 billion just there. How we find the additional $10 billion to $12 billion has to effect education, it will probably impact the bottom line. I think classroom sizes will get larger. I think the Governor is going to use, people here have said we don’t want to give the Governor the power to do midyear cuts, we’re giving away something. I think the Governor is going to do something more disastrous, he’s going to furlough people in large amounts. I don’t think we have any control over that right now either. It’s either we allow the Governor to furlough real working people and cut education or on May 20 we have to have a more disciplined discussion of what we need to do.”
Right now, the ballot initiatives are likely to fail. Those on the right oppose them because they oppose any increased taxation and support the cutting of government programs like education, and other things in order to balance the budget.
The activist left and progressive communities oppose the compromise because they believe that these are draconian cuts and there are better ways to achieve a balanced budget.
My friend Paul Hogarth sums up the activist perspective pretty well. You can also read Linda Sutton’s views on the initiatives. These are two of the better pieces that sum of the activist left side of the aisle.
The Democratic activists this week were able to block the endorsement of Prop 1A (the budget spending cap), 1D (which takes money from children’s health care) and 1E (which diverts money from mental health). Not surprisingly health care, mental health, and other advocates are strongly opposed to these ballot initiatives as they take vital moneys from already funding starved programs.
Up until last week, I was almost certainly going to oppose the ballot initiatives. I may yet.
But talking to people I respect like Dean Florez, Assemblymember Paul Fong, Assemblymember Dave Jones, has given me considerable pause. The activists somehow believe there is going to be another way.
While CTA (California Teacher’s Association) has endorsed the propositions, CTF (California Teacher’s Federation) is opposing them. They believe they can take the state to court to sue for Prop 98 money. Is that realistic? Controller John Chiang couldn’t even convince the courts that the Governor couldn’t reduce state workers’ pay to $6.25 an hour, and they are going to convince the courts to give education $9 billion that the state doesn’t have? I just do not think this is the winning strategy.
I suppose I part with my progressive and grassroots friends on this, I think the worse outcome is us to roll the dice and hope for something better, rather than taking perhaps the lesser of the two horrible outcomes.
What is at stake locally–for all of the wrangling about education, not nearly enough has tied state outcomes to local ones. We are talking about an estimated $3 million hit on the local schools. Honestly, I think that may be best case scenario. We know about what $3 million means. It means at least 50 more layoffs. At least.
For my conservatives readers, you may want to pay close attention if you are looking at these scenarios and dreaming. There is but another possibility. Of course for liberals you to rely on Arnold. However, one of the Republican leaders pointed this out as still a possibility if the Governor gets angry enough at the ballot initiatives going down.
Back in December, the Democrats proposed a majority budget which used a series of very specific fees in lieu of taxes to balance the budget. At that time, it was a non-starter for the Governor. But times may have changed. If the Governor knows that the Republicans will not go for additional revenue increases, there is a possibility that he and the Democrats can reach an agreement on a majority budget. The result will be a court battle, but given the economic crisis, the Governor might prevail on this one too. That might save education for the time being, but I am sure you Republicans are not going to like it.
The problem for those of us on the other side is that we have to count on Arnold to do the right thing. Is that what you want to hang the future of education in this state on?
I just do not know. I know the ballot propositions do a lot of horrible things. I know a lot of perhaps even worse things will happen if they do not pass. I do not know that I am willing to roll the dice on education. I honestly believe that if the worst case scenario becomes reality we are looking at a lost generation of kids in this state. You can talk about living within our means all you want, but the reality is that “living within our means” means those who can least afford to take a hit, will take a huge one. It is up to you to decide whether you can live with that reality.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
Unfortunately, I have to agree. I’m going to hold my nose and vote for this awful compromise. But then we have to work to improve it – esp. with getting rid of minority dictatorship – the 2/3rds rule. A new governor should help, too.
All these propositions are an attempt to give cover to politicians bc they don’t want to stick their collective necks out to make the decisions that need to be made (whether it is to cut programs, raise taxes or create new fees). Frankly, I don’t want to give them that cover – I want to hold them accountable.
When Arnold tried propositions before, they failed miserably. He thought he could go to the people, and use the bully pulpit. Funny thing is the idea behind some of the propositions were okay – but too many had odd twists put in by some special interest group that made them unacceptable. Arnold was very naive, and assumed the propositions were defeated because no one liked him anymore. This is all by way of saying vote for or against the propositions on their merits, not bc lawmakers have not come up with anything better.
Our choice is to either
Face the music now and figure out a way to balance the budget
Punt yet again by passing 1A and face the same problem next year, only worse.
I’m voting no.
Anon: You are completely false. All of the props are needed given their agreement because they change the allocation of monies provided by previous voter supported initiatives. We can question the agreements and the solutions, but that is what this is about.
Phil Angelides wrote an op/ed ([url]http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-angelides28-2009apr28,0,6390521.story[/url]) about Prop 1A in the L.A. Times, this morning. He concludes:
[i]”Of all the measures on the ballot, Proposition 1A deserves to be rejected. When that happens, the real work of reforming our state budget and government to meet the aspirations of the people of California can begin.”[/i]
Hey, Lightbulb: do you have any ideas about HOW to balance the budget – given that the republican minority won’t budge? We will “face the same problem” on May 20th with your and ‘anon’s’ attitudes. This ‘compromise’ is the lesser of two evils
yea, do away with minority dictatorship(dave) and your kids(if you have any)will have you to thank for completely unobstructed government with no debate over anything-period! WHY must republicans fold on their views and compromise when all the dems have to do is invite them to the press conference and dems are the great consensus-builders!?
That’s what elections are for. Don’t like the current government, vote in a new one. If you have a Democratic legislature even with majority rule, you still have to get the Governor to agree.
Prop 1A stinks for all the reasons Angelides laid out, but without it the tax increases will be repealed and we’ll be back to a budget hole in the many tens of billions. Even with it there will yet again have to be a huge array of cuts in the coming fiscal year, but 1A would mitigate that slightly.
It’s a double edged sword, but Angelides is dreaming to suggest that if we vote this down the Legislature will be able to move on to something better. It took multiple all night meetings and arm twisting of Republican senators even to get this through.
Phil Angelides–
“Of all the measures on the ballot, Proposition 1A deserves to be rejected. When that happens, the real work of reforming our state budget and government to meet the aspirations of the people of California can begin.”
If you kill 1A, I think that also does in 1B. 1B can’t pass without 1A passing also.
“yea, do away with minority dictatorship(dave) and your kids(if you have any)will have you to thank for completely unobstructed government with no debate over anything-period! WHY must republicans fold on their views and compromise when all the dems have to do is invite them to the press conference and dems are the great consensus-builders!?”
But things seem to work so much smoother in other states that don’t have the 2/3 rule for budgets. California has just been a laughing stock for the past coupld of decades over this. My kids can already be thankful for poorer schools in California and deteriorating infrastructure for starters. None of this has notably improved in the last 20 years.
“It’s a double edged sword, but Angelides is dreaming to suggest that if we vote this down the Legislature will be able to move on to something better. It took multiple all night meetings and arm twisting of Republican senators even to get this through.”
Grover Norquist Republicans (those who signed his anti-tax pledge here in California) figured these props would go down. Their strategy is to shrink government by starving the beast and then drown it in the toilet. Nevermind the consequences.
I agree with Angelides. Prop 1A stinks. But then, so do all of them, with the possible exception of 1B. Too bad it has to be dependent on 1A, but that was a ploy, of course.
I will be voting no on all of the propositions. We will just be bailing our selves out of an immediate hole, only to dig the future ones deeper.
First, we have to change the 2/3 rule for passing a budget. I am tired of seeing a minority of anti-tax republicans holding the state and the people and our programs hostage with their right-wing ideology. Then, we have to raise taxes to pay for the things we need. That is how it works.
We will take some hits here in our schools, true. Maybe next time around we can go out into the community with our hands out asking for millions for teachers and programs instead of a new football stadium.
Has anyone who is against these (admitedly problematic) propositions said anything about any kind of plan to help this year (not waiting to repeal the 2/3rds vote, etc.)?? It’s fine to say these aren’t good enough but what will prevent 100’s of teachers (or more) and others from being laid off this year? Disgust and righteous indignation won’t save a single teaching job. That is why the Cal. Teachers Association, PTA’s, firefighters, sheriffs, etc are for them. As a compromise, not an ideal.
BTW, “old e/0 tracks”, until the republicans get less extreme candidates and win more elections, perhaps they should consider a little compromise themselves!
“It’s fine to say these aren’t good enough but what will prevent 100’s of teachers (or more) and others from being laid off this year?”
Cutting back their salaries and benefits to sustainable levels will PREVENT that.
“Disgust and righteous indignation won’t save a single teaching job. That is why the Cal. Teachers Association, PTA’s, firefighters, sheriffs, etc are for them.”
The reason WHY those unions are for these propositions is only because they allow all of their overpaid members who are bleeding dry our economy to keep their high pay and high benefits. If the props fail, they lose the gravy train.
“Cutting back their salaries and benefits to sustainable levels will PREVENT that.”
For firefighters, even police, and such, it makes sense. To argue that teacher salaries and benefits (which are not great) are unsustainable is difficult to fathom.
Anon 2:45 you sound like a horribly angry individual who does not have a clue as to what teachers unions are all about. You buy into the rhetoric that they are greedy and just want money but what you fail to recognize is that –
a. If it were not for teachers and the unions that support them and protect their jobs then they would be the first on the chopping block every time.
b. Teachers are not bleeding dry our economy. As far as I’m concerned I wished that they got paid what firefighters get paid. They educate our kids and our kids are our future. What a heroic job teachers have.
c. I agree – To argue that teacher salaries and benefits (which are not great) are unsustainable is difficult to fathom.
I forgot to mention above that if we had Healthcare Reform Now then maybe this would bring down the cost of employee contracts.
Didn’t you mention this before David?
it’s about checks and balances–believe it or not..and NOT about your party getting its way ALL the time. Speaking of checks in a different form-are you(and “skeptic”) seriously suggesting we don’t already pay enough?? Congratulations, you both must be doing exceedingly well! I think that’s great-really, I do but for once, can imagine that thousands of others here in Davis aren’t doing so well??? Does that prospect even enter your thought process? Did you kick in a few thousand extra to the county in your property taxes? Don’t pay enough–send them more and see if you get it back.
“As far as I’m concerned I wished that they got paid what firefighters get paid. They educate our kids and our kids are our future. To argue that teacher salaries and benefits (which are not great) are unsustainable is difficult to fathom.”
California teachers are the highest paid of any state, with the highest pensions, according to the American Federation of Teachers ([url]http://www.aft.org/salary/2007/download/AFT2007SalarySurvey.pdf[/url]):
1. Average in California in 2007: $63,640
18. Average in Minnesota in 2007: $49,719
48. Average in N. Dakota in 2007: $38,586
50. Average in S. Dakota in 2007: $35,378
But that doesn’t mean we have good teachers. Here are those states ranked ([url]http://www.alec.org/am/pdf/education/2008_report_card/ReportCard_frontend.pdf[/url]) by educational outcome:
#1. Minnesota
#5. South Dakota
#8 North Dakota
#38. California
“it’s about checks and balances–believe it or not..and NOT about your party getting its way ALL the time.”
For me it’s about governability and right now this state is not governable. We have plenty of checks and balances without the two-thirds rule. Right now I’d like some accountability and ownership of government. If my party cannot govern, then throw them out and put the other party in, that’s fine. But the current situation is not working and will not work. So you have to make changes.
Anon 614,
Two things, first those other states are not as diverse as California and second, a home in those other is much less per square foot than in California.
Anon 6:14
Totally unfair comparisons. California has a very different demographic than the states you selected to compare it to and a much higher cost of living. To be fair, you must ompare Califonia to states that share the same type of diversity and population and higher cost of living.
“you must ompare Califonia to states that share the same type of diversity and population and higher cost of living.”
You suggest that diversity is the reason our test scores are so low? Sounds like you are a racist.
Cost of living is also a canard. Except for a few premium spots in the Bay Area, L.A. and San Diego, home ownership is no more expensive in most of California than it is in the upper Midwest. A house in metro Bakersfield costs the same as a house in metro Fargo or Rapid City. Yet teachers in Delano, California are paid nearly twice as much as teachers in Delano, Minnesota, despite the fact [i]it is more expensive to live in Delano, MN.[/i]
anon 9:17
I said absolutely nothing about test scores! I am sorry, but you are making unfair comparisons and you know it. What do you have against teachers? What do you have against education? Good teachers are worth their weight n gold. They deserve salaries comensurate with the work they do–educating our children.
I grew up near Bakersfield. Couldn’t wait to get out of there. Who would want to live there? No wonder housing prices are low.
The propositions are going down in flames, and I for one am happy about it. It’s about time we shake up the system. I have two kids who will be starting school in Davis soon, and I certainly hope the education system continues to excel. But it’s time to trim the fat, burn the over-growth.
“The propositions are going down in flames, and I for one am happy about it. It’s about time we shake up the system. I have two kids who will be starting school in Davis soon, and I certainly hope the education system continues to excel. But it’s time to trim the fat, burn the over-growth.”
In k-12 education?
“You suggest that diversity is the reason our test scores are so low? Sounds like you are a racist.”
There’s nothing racist about pointing out that CA has different demographics than some other states. Kids whose parents have lower education levels and do not speak English are at a disadvantage in school compared with kids whose parents are English speaking and have a college degree. California has a higher proportion of kids in the first group than other states do. CA’s teachers therefore have a more challenging population to teach than do kids in some other states that tend to do better on those sorts of comparisons.
Yes, It is finally time to pay the piper. There is no easy way out of this. The government is having to do what it has needed to do for some time. Cut programs and runaway spending. Then, if the voters don’t like it, they can vote the blankards out for not tightening the belts. I don’t care if we lose all of congress.
Now, I have heard the counter argument about a billion times: “don’t punish the children.” Congress has chosen to do that already. There is no snaking their way out of this this time. It is time to pay the piper. If they raise taxes, they’ll kill the economy that needs to recover. That in turn will punish the whole state including “the children.” They can’t borrow forever, and they know that too. That is “punishing the children” by loading on debt for them to pay back. If they try the alternative which is to gut programs that shouldn’t have happened in the first place they will have to answer for that as well. The children are going to get punished one way or the other and their is no weaseling out of it. But if our children are to be punished then we can take the government down with them as a message to future governments to watch the belt and don’t spend $ you do not have.
Caine, you don’t make sense. In the other thread you lament that there is no money for teachers. And here you have a chance to make that money available for teachers. Go figure…
We have a dysfunctional electorate as much as a dysfunctional government.
“Caine, you don’t make sense. In the other thread you lament that there is no money for teachers. And here you have a chance to make that money available for teachers. Go figure…”
Not sure what this means. However, Caine is making a good point. The chickens have come home to roost. Overspending on programs we do not need has finally brought us to where we are. Failure to regulate the banking industry has finally brought us to where we are. More spending by raising taxes will not work here. People are getting laid off, and we have not seen the worst yet. People cannot pay taxes that don’t get paid themselves. You can’t get blood out of a turnip. So what is the solution?
Workers need to take drastic paycuts to keep everyone working. Upper management needs to take the biggest hit. Then start SLOWLY phasing out programs that are not necessary. Taxpayers have stood by while our federal/state/local gov’ts create new programs left and right, like ice cream stores create new flavors. Taxpayers are actually starting to revolt – w teabag parties. Taxpayers are tapped out – pure and simple. There are no more taxpayer dollars for the gov’ts to spend.
“Then start SLOWLY phasing out programs that are not necessary.”
The mythical “pork” that shows up in these discussions. Which programs do you refer to that are not necessary? This discussion is only hot air and rabble rousing without specifics.
News rundown of some stories connected to public education.
PPIC survey reported in SF Chron.: “Californians want schools to spend more wisely”
[url]http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/30/BAL617BDNE.DTL&type=education[/url]
Vallejo schools cut $10.5 million from budget:
[url]http://www.timesheraldonline.com/news/ci_12261403[/url]
Vallejo schools considering graduate cuts:
[url]http://www.timesheraldonline.com/ci_12252169?IADID=Search-www.timesheraldonline.com-www.timesheraldonline.com[/url]
Jefferson UHSD teachers union agrees to pay cuts:
[url]http://www.pacificatribune.com/news/ci_12256113[/url]
San Carlos residents vote on parcel tax for schools:
[url]http://www.insidebayarea.com/search/ci_12241164?IADID=Search-www.insidebayarea.com-www.insidebayarea.com[/url]
Wood shop class at Santa Rosa HS saved by benefactor:
[url]http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20090429/ARTICLES/904289913[/url]
In scanning news stories statewide, I found a surprising number of newspaper editorial boards in support of most of the propositions, with a standard justification being, these propositions aren’t great, but the alternative is worse. If I have time in the next few days, I may try to compile at least some of those links.
Woodland JUSD gives final approval of 51.45 layoffs:
[url]http://www.dailydemocrat.com/ci_12261711?source=most_viewed[/url]
“The mythical “pork” that shows up in these discussions. Which programs do you refer to that are not necessary? This discussion is only hot air and rabble rousing without specifics.”
How about resodding the lawn in front of the friggin’ Washington D.C. National Monument as we face the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression? Is that porky enough for you? That is only one of many from the Obama administration…
“How about resodding the lawn in front of the friggin’ Washington D.C. National Monument as we face the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression? Is that porky enough for you? That is only one of many from the Obama administration…”
Okay. We could make an issue of that… And maybe that in aggregate w/ other program cuts might be meaningful. But it’s a very small target in the larger scheme of things. And it doesn’t create the same kind of visceral outrage in me as “the bridge to nowhere”.
The more immediate focus here is on the state budget and state funding. If I compiled some sentiments in these comments so far, I come up with, “Vote against all of the state propositions in May because the federal government is spending enormous amounts of pork by resodding the lawn around the National Monument.”
My blood pressure doesn’t rise in response to that.
“How about resodding the lawn in front of the friggin’ Washington D.C. National Monument as we face the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression?”
$21 million to resod 13 million square feet of turf in the National Monument, an area visited by 15 – 20 million people a year and used very heavily for public events, is not outrageous. Normal estimate for sod installation is $1 – 2 per square foot. My understanding from trade publications is that this lawn area is pretty beat up. $4 – 5 million of that is the cost of the sod, which would benefit local growers in the DC area. The remainder pays for supplies and landscape labor. The landscape industry is in bad shape right now. So this is a classic public works project, at a normal industry cost, that would get dollars into the local economy.
Public works spending is an important part of the stimulus program. But none of that makes a good sound bite, I guess.
“$21 million to resod 13 million square feet of turf in the National Monument, an area visited by 15 – 20 million people a year and used very heavily for public events, is not outrageous. Normal estimate for sod installation is $1 – 2 per square foot. My understanding from trade publications is that this lawn area is pretty beat up. $4 – 5 million of that is the cost of the sod, which would benefit local growers in the DC area. The remainder pays for supplies and landscape labor. The landscape industry is in bad shape right now. So this is a classic public works project, at a normal industry cost, that would get dollars into the local economy.
Public works spending is an important part of the stimulus program. But none of that makes a good sound bite, I guess.”
It never ceases to amaze me how people can come up w excuses to justify pork, as above. How about the raise given to Bruce Colby? Justify that one!