Last night the Vanguard hosted a discussion on Economic Development. The event featured Danielle Casey, the Executive Vice President of Greater Sacramento – we will have video in the coming days.
But one of the key questions I asked Ms. Casey was: How does the region view Davis from the standpoint of economic development? What do you hear from commercial entities looking to locate in this region?
Her answer was they aren’t looking at Davis for the most part. Why? There is no space available in Davis that they can move into. And so, while UC Davis is clearly viewed as untapped potential, Davis is not looked at as a destination for most companies.
Here are a couple of slides from her presentation that stand out about Davis.
The first is demographic change.
What we are seeing is that there is a steep decline in the percentage of people in that core working age from 30 to 60 years old. There is an increase in college students and an increase in people over the age of 60.
Second, there is a low comparable student retention rate. This is not just for UC Davis, this is for the region. UC Davis has only 23 percent of its graduates living in the Sacramento Region, which compares poorly to a number of other schools across the west.
Finally, we have the commercial space story. Again, this just backs up the numbers the city came up with from earlier this year. As we reported, the city calculated the amount of vacant commercially zoned land at around 128 acres, and we calculated about 50 acres of that to be actually developable in the next ten to 20 years.
Above is how that plays out. The vacancy rate for office is 6.1 percent, and 4.7 for industrial it is not that far off from the rest of the region. But the next line shows the big problem – there is less than 200,000 square feet of available office space and about 824,000 square feet of available industrial space. In the Greater Sacramento region, there is 9.2 million square feet.
The overall inventory is 3.1 million square feet of office and 17.6 million square feet of industrial compared with a total of 105 million and 176 million in the region respectively.
Moreover, there is almost nothing under construction in Davis (I’m not sure that this includes Nugget).
The amazing thing is that, despite these numbers, Davis has attracted Nugget to build their corporate headquarters here – granted, they are a local business and they convinced both Mars and ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) to locate labs in Davis.
And we didn’t even talk about the fact that Davis is likely to lose at least one and maybe two major existing companies, primarily due to lack of space to grow.
There is much more to break down from this talk.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
No growth wins!
This is what a no growth college town looks like. Is there any surprise in these numbers? A booming university town with a no growth minded host community. A graying home owner class and a highly skilled working age cohort in ex-migration taking their human capital where its wanted. A declining school age population masked by an enrollment shell game.
Yeah, a ‘paradise’… oh, wait… that is very similar to the situation in Paradise (think, near Chico…) in the 70’s-80’s… similar demographics/trends… one difference… the folk up there seldom, if ever, approved school bonds/financing…
If only it was fiscally sustainable…
This is exactly the problem I have been talking about. If you think about this, Davis is expending a huge amount of community resources to educate bright young minds and then allows them to leave the region without gaining a return on that investment. That’s inefficiency at its height.
Craig… you have strange thoughts on this…
Few UCD students (%-age) apply to UCD with the intention of settling down in the region… generally, only those from this region. I certainly didn’t… 1970’s… after graduation, actually looked for work elsewhere, including Spokane WA, SJ Valley, and ended up near where I grew up in the Bay Area… married a woman I met @ UCD… started thinking of raising a family, buying a home… 2 years later, realized the Bay Area was no place to buy a home… by random coincidence, heard of a job in Davis… jumped at it, but was never part of my plan until them. We were here ‘for reals’ ~ 40 years ago…
We (community of Davis) owe UCD students courteous, friendly, welcoming behaviors, including providing opportunities for shelter while they are students… nothing more, nothing less… they owe us appropriate, respectful behavior while they are here… nothing more, nothing less.
We do not owe them employment opportunities, nor housing, once they graduate. To the extent that some will seek/find employment, housing in Davis, after graduation, great… welcome to the community.
But if an honest poll was done of UCD students, on the question of future plans, the answer to “I really want to find long term employment and housing in Davis…. I want to be a long term member of this community”, I’d be surprised if it got past a 1% “strongly agree”, unless they grew up nearby… very few (%-age) UCD students…
With 30,000 undergrads plus thousands of graduate students, it is unlikely we could even accommodate your 1% with opportunities for appropriate housing and jobs. We may as well build that moat along A and Russell that some here seem to desire.
In my opinion, that is exactly what we (those at or near the end of their careers) do owe to those just starting out, an opportunity. Not a promise, an opportunity, for both appropriate housing (an opportunity we should have provided when they arrived) and to start their careers. Our failure to do that has been clearly demonstrated by the changing demographics of our population, as well as the deteriorating fiscal and physical status of the community.
Mark West: when you say “our failure” what you really mean is UCD’s failure to house it’s own students during a long stretch in which its enrollment has grown at rates many times that of the local, regional, and statewide population.
[name redacted]… isn’t it a bit presumptuous to tell [another name redacted],
Maybe [name redacted] doesn’t care, but it irks [yet another name redacted] a bunch…
Have a great evening…
Yet somehow there are enough job opportunities in the region that a very large percentage of Sac State students stay after graduation.
First of all, a lot of students want to stay in Davis and the area.
Second and more importantly, if they have opportunities then they want to stay.
Meant honestly… of those UCD folk NOT from the Davis/Sac Region, how many come to UCD with that goal, or graduate with that goal?
Am genuinely curious, but also doubt those stats exist, one way or the other…
I affirm that I believe it is a small %-age
One of the things that was talked about on Wednesday evening – and brought up by students in the audience – was that many students would like the opportunity to stay but don’t have the job opportunities. I think you’re really asking the wrong question – it is not how many come to UCD with that goal but rather how many would stay if they had opportunities here. I’m an interesting example, I never really wanted to stay here or planned to, but opportunities made it so that I did.
“Look at me, man! Now I drive the school bus!” — Otto Mann
Interestingly, Craig, briefly thought about staying after graduation… applied for Davis/Woodland/Sacramento jobs in my field… went nowhere, as I was (and am) a white male… was told (after ‘pressing’, due to my creds/CV) they were only looking for female and/or POC in my field… aka, ‘affirmative action’ (late 70’s)… but that of course, was NOT discrimination… just “social justice”…
Guess my “white male privilege” kicked in later…
Craig – What community resources are you referring to with respect to educating UCD students? Seems the net flow of resources is in the opposite direction. But I could be overlooking something.
While those of us who have chosen Davis as home feel differently, this was the case long before no-growth J/R and high rents and lack of develop-able land. The real reason is Davis produces people capable of living in places they can afford to live in — Bay Area / LA / SD — and most people, not us, don’t really prefer living in the middle of a hot, dusty ag valley next to the world-class-wonder that is Sacramento.
While what you say here Alan M. is largely true, my completely anecdotal experience of interacting with a number of students through my previous business suggests that a significant number of those students preferred this area to where they grew up. This was especially true of those coming from south of the Tehachapi mountains.
And here, folks, is the problem with the Vanguard comments section:
Speculation that makes your point, based on nothing, is not a fact nor an argument, folks, on either side of any disagreement on any issue! Both of the above statements, polar opposites, could therefore be considered ‘hot air’.
Alan meet the internet.
touché
Alan… critique accepted… also, furthers my point…
Please note, Alan, I prefaced my comment with “if an honest survey were done…”, and ended with the observation that I doubted there has been, or will be, so I clearly labelled my observation as speculation… yet, my observation/speculation is unchanged. Unless someone documents to the contrary… but you are right, my opinion, based only on life experience, no other data… it is what it is.
Don’t take it personally, I’m just an a**hole.
Hey I know, why don’t we open up some space for them, like east of town, like around Mace & I-80 — wouldn’t that be fun?
“And the Lord said unto Davis, thou shalt build an ARC, and bring in the companies two by two.”
And then for some reason, in the mid-21st century, the Yolo Bypass west levee broke in a 1000-year storm and flooded the ARC.
Oh, the irony.
Nice. 9.7 out of 10 for grin factor! Well written!
Dispute some of the details (1000 year event with complete levee failure) means I should store our emergency stuff on the second floor (MaceRanch), and be prepared to wait for a dove (‘mourning’, or would a pigeon do?) carrying a green sprig, telling us we could prepare to go outside.
According to FEMA @ least, in the 100 year (actually 0.01% chance of happening in a given year) event, with complete levee failure, we’d be good, except if we tried to drive too fast on the street. Those would likely remain wet for a bit.
More than the ARC will flood in the 1,000 year storm. Maybe we should just evacuate Davis, just in case?
True story.
For rigor, it’s the 100/1000 year event… generally, a series of storms, back to back, that have a 0.01% – 0.001% chance of happening in any given year. Davis’ watershed [including areas upstream] has experienced a 50-year (0.02%) and a 75 year event (others can do the math) since 1979. No real worries, unless someone is a ‘chicken little’ alarmist.
Even if a true coin is flipped 100 times, and always came up heads, the chances of it doing so on the next flip is 50-50.
Alan… the folk who predict weather patterns… particularly major events? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration… NOAA… even bureaucrats have wonderfully twisted humor… and sense of irony…
I resemble that remark.
Given that Nugget is under construction, I’d say not.
Je d’accord.
The numbers presented completely undermine the thesis from the author [name redacted]. Davis has similar relative vacancy rates and lease increase rates compared to the region as a whole. It has less absolute square footage available because —get this—small cities are smaller than large regions. Amazing, right?
Oh, and “retention rate” of students after graduation is perfectly fine for Sacramento State students. Why is it lower for UC Davis? Because students are coming from a wider diversity of areas across California (and beyond) and many return to those areas after graduation .
One important context this data fails to mention: Davis has a higher jobs-housing ratio than the rest of the region combined. Relatively speaking, there is not a lack of jobs in the area—the opposite is true.
Another thing that is true: this panel was put together for the purpose of trying to sell the community on the need for the MEIC/ARC project. The fact that the analysis is so shoddy is an indication of how far the proponents are willing to defy reality in order to try to justify their political goals
Says the guy who put forward the shoddy analysis of middle-income affordability.
“One important context this data fails to mention: Davis has a higher jobs-housing ratio than the rest of the region combined. Relatively speaking, there is not a lack of jobs in the area—the opposite is true.”
Davis has jobs at UC Davis. But a huge number of those jobs commute from out of town. And most of the people who live in Davis, commute out of town. They had that slide last night btw.
Those people should switch jobs and housing until everyone lives in the town in which they work.
Seems “unfortunate” for the MRIC/ARC boosters that the presentation itself groups the Davis/Woodland “submarket” as a single entity, given the more than 2 million square feet (and 1,600 additional homes) comprising the planned Woodland innovation center – which is apparently much further along in the planning process.
Not sure why that matters given the way they lay this out? After all, if the combined areas are that low on available space, it only magnifies the point rather than negating it.
And, which has already been approved, I understand.
(Again, couldn’t get this note in on time in my original comment above – due to the premature cut-off of the editing period on the Vanguard’s website.)