The city council will hold a special meeting in which the council will likely to declare a local emergency. Staff notes, “The speed at which COVID-19 is spreading across the world and regionally is unprecedented in modern times.” As a result, guidelines are not only changing rapidly—some “changed several times in a single day.”
As a result, “Local mitigation decisions must be made near instantaneously with changing health and safety conditions.
“This requires the City take steps now to allow the City Manager, as the Director of Emergency Services, to take any actions necessary to address or mitigate impacts COVID-19 may have on City operations and services. It also allows the City Council to approve emergency regulations to prevent the spread of illness should that become necessary. Finally, it allows the City to take advantage of State and federal funding and other resources as necessary to address issues within Davis.”
On Monday, huge swaths of northern California have been ordered to “shelter in place” starting at midnight on Monday night.
These counties include: San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Cruz counties.
“This isn’t a time for half measures,” San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo said on Monday. “History will not forgive us for waiting an hour longer.”
Indeed, Santa Clara has become one of the epicenters of the pandemic with at least three deaths and dozens of cases. This is not the same as the imposition of martial law where the National Guard would be sent out. Notably, grocery stores, banks, gas stations, and pharmacies, as well as police and fire departments, will stay open.
“You can even take your dog for a walk,” said Matt Willis, the health officer of Marin County. “We are not expecting empty streets. Social distancing does not mean disconnecting from each other.”
But they warn that “non-essential travel,” including on foot, scooter, bicycle, car or public transportation, as well as any gatherings of any size, are banned.
The key here—slowing the spread of the virus is urgent in order to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.
“Some individuals who contract the COVID-19 virus have no symptoms or have mild symptoms, which means they may not be aware they carry the virus,” the order said. “Because even people without symptoms can transmit the disease, and because evidence shows the disease is easily spread, gatherings can result in preventable transmission of the virus.”
One of my questions was why not simply attempt to test everyone—in part because people without symptoms can transmit the disease.
I asked former Davis Mayor Robb Davis that question and he said, “I don’t think there is such a thing as ‘blanket testing.’” He noted even South Korea is not doing that.
He said, “I AM in favor of providing testing for those with a given set of symptoms. At this point it is a numbers game: enough kits need to be available. If people have influenza like illness, I think they should be eligible for a test and be able to easily get one. That would help them self-isolate more effectively and catch those at greatest risk. I am in favor of that type of aggressive testing.”
Is the federal government doing enough at this point?
Robb Davis said that “we expect that each level of government will operate to mitigate the crisis based on its own unique role. For example, macroeconomic issues are not the purview of local government—obviously. But the same holds for sick leave, unemployment insurance, etc. For the most part states and local governments cannot provide this for citizens. We expect the federal government to deal with large scale infrastructure needs, and county health agencies to provide guidance to local businesses on safety precautions.”
He added that “this goes back to the Federal Government’s responsibilities. They are not meeting them in my view… But that is because we have a fractured health care system. We do not have a national health system.”
How long can we expect to live like this—in separation from friends and the community?
Experts don’t know.
What we hear: “It’s going to get worse before it gets better.”
As the Boston Globe notes: “No, it’s not reassuring. But that’s the message from epidemiologists, biostatisticians, and infectious disease doctors, who have been sounding the alarm for weeks about the growing threat of the novel coronavirus and the dire consequences the United States will undoubtedly face if the spread of the disease, Covid-19, is not aggressively tamed.”
“This virus will not be conquered until we have a vaccine—period. It’s just so unstoppable,” said Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, a nonpartisan think tank based in Washington, D.C. “We’re in this tough spot for the long haul.”
And optimism isn’t there either—with the belief being that, despite prioritization of efforts to develop a vaccine, it will take at least a year, probably closer to 18 months.
So how long will we live like this?
“Unfortunately, the answer is not one most people want to hear: We don’t know,” said Bill Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. “We’re not trying to come up with long-term plans to stop the pandemic. What we are doing now is trying to stop it from destroying us.”
Furthermore, The answer also depends “on how we respond over the next few days,” said Samuel Scarpino, an assistant professor at Northeastern University’s Network Science Institute, and “if we increase the amount of social distancing, remote work, school closures, et cetera,” or “blithely ignore the advice of public health officials…”
Some warn that if the US goes the way of Italy, within two weeks there would be 150,000 confirmed cases and about 12,000 dead—that is adjusting for population.
Can we avoid that with these drastic measures? Maybe.
The goal as we have heard it many times over is to “flatten the curve” through social distancing. It was just a week ago I was warning the consequences of it. On the other hand, the consequence of not doing this is hundreds of millions infected and millions dead.
“The challenge right now is we don’t really have anything to combat the disease,” said Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida’s Emerging Pathogens Institute. “Certainly, if we can find a highly effective therapeutic—something that reduces mortality or something that reduces the severity of illness—that would be very valuable. And that might give us some reassurance in relaxing some of these strategies.”
For now, “we’re buying ourselves time for a vaccine to be evaluated, manufactured, and deployed,” Dean added. “It is possible that this will be a new way of life for a stretch that’s longer than any of us would like.”
Ouch.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
“Some warn that if the US goes the way of Italy, within two weeks there would be 150,000 confirmed cases and about 12,000 dead—that is adjusting for population.”
To put that comment into context, Italy has 27,980 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 2,158 deaths so far. That is a death rate of 7.7%. However, according to CNN “Italy tests about 826 people per million people” so the number of cases is probably much higher than 27,980.
By contrast, South Korea administers 3,692 tests per million people, and its mortality rate is significantly lower.
Unfortunately, that is bad news for the United States, which is currently way behind in testing for coronavirus.
+/- 40%. Close enough for postulating.
Or we could go the way of Germany, which currently has 7689 confirmed cases with only 20 deaths which makes for a death rate of 0.26%.
California already has 11 deaths in far fewer cases…
Why is Germany so low…. pulled this from here:
As Matt points out – one of the keys – testing. We’re behind on that.
Gets to the testing #… and remember, asymptomatic/minor reactions will never be tested… so much for ‘hard numbers’…
Based on the number we actually have seen, with many younger folk being asymptomatic or minor, who are not (and probably will not) be tested, it will be near impossible to establish who ‘had’ it…
In my opinion, given the age/health precursors known to date, the #s are questionable, fatality even more so, unless ‘adjusted’ for age and other health factor considerations…
One item from today’s coronavirus briefing. Some of the preventive measures we now consider “draconian” such as social distancing and sheltering in place are measures that would save many lives during the usual seasonal flu. Maybe it is time for us to stop considering health as a purely individual and private matter and start considering the impacts of our individual actions on others in our community.
Such as not working, hugging, going to the gym, or gathering in large groups during the flue season? I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your assertion, but I question that it is even possible.
Right, but we haven’t ever ruined the economy over the seasonal flu.
I think her suggestion was to employ social distancing, not necessarily to shutdown the economy.
I don’t think having people ‘sheltering in place’ is good for any economy.
Keith … we should all (across the globe) shelter in place for a year… no going outside for any one, for any purpose… then, the economy will be just fine… no need for one.
And, with nearly all humans dead (the hoarders and cheaters might make it), we will have solved all sorts of problems… traffic, CO2 generation, etc., income disparity, biased incarceration rates, justice system inequities, etc.
The logical extension of the path we seem to be on… (?)
Keith, for the most part the money that is not spent in the economy during the time of ‘sheltering in place’ will be spent at a later date once the ‘sheltering’ period has ended. Either that, or people will add that unspent money to their savings.
It will be disastrous for local businesses, many of which are already reeling from lost foot traffic. Supply chains from Bay Area vendors are already being cut. A more nuanced approach would be much better for the local economy than a full-on shut-down such as was just implemented in 6 Bay Area counties.
That is said very much from the point of view of a person ‘set for life’. There are so many young people in the service economy who are living paycheck to paycheck who won’t be able to afford even paying rent next month – not to mention those with cash salaries who’s living just got tanked but are not officially employed or are gig workers and therefore can’t get unemployment. This is way beyond spending money later and/or savings.
Alan, perhaps I put too much faith in the words of our government in this time of crisis. For example this e-mail I just got from Bill Dodd. Note the bolded sentence.
I also think some historical perspective is useful. The polio epidemics of the 20th Century, which prompted similar societal self-quarantine, did not do permanent damage to the US economy.
I suspect that for most workers the income will be lost along with their job when the business closes, so the money will neither be spent nor saved. And when the job goes away, good luck finding another.
Agree with Keith and Mark W… no ‘refuge’ for PT employees with no benefits. Maybe a delay in the “hit”… but the “hit” is still there…
Still advocate for prudence, but no panic… that’s where we are…
This is where the role of government is essential … providing a way for those hardship cases to come forward and be assisted. Trump has discussed that, as has Newsom.
sidebar… DV should immediately eliminate the ‘window’ for self-editing a response… zero time… I repeatedly (and others have experienced) no chance to edit or delete with even 2-3 minutes on ‘the shot clock’ just don’t allow it… just a suggestion…
Until this all passes, I am disinclined to do anything to the site. But I will keep it in mind.
Should have said, “fix it or get rid of it”… all, in due time, of course…
Disagree. It sometimes doesn’t work for me either, but the solution isn’t to flush the baby with the toilet water.
I agree with Alan … but I did just experience the “shot clock” cutting me off from making an edit.
I will have them look at it, but it can’t be right now.
Understood. It is an inconvenience only. If having your technical support team “look at it” causes other problems that brings the site down, that would be much more than an inconvenience.