By David M. Greenwald
As a parent I get it—distance learning really isn’t great for nine- and ten-year-old students. They are stir crazy. Staring at a screen is a pain—literally. They miss their friends. They want to run around and play. And the quality of the education isn’t nearly as good.
But as a parent who is in the high risk category, I am not going to risk my health at this point when there is light at the end of the tunnel. Not with daily cases surging to over 180,000 last week. Not with 70,000 new hospitalizations in a single day and 1300 more people dead—a number that is sure to rise.
Pfizer last week announced a vaccine that is 90 percent effective, and, today, Moderna’s vaccine is 94.5 percent effective. That tells us that there is a good chance a vaccine will work. Now the issue is to act responsibly so that thousands of people don’t needlessly die while we are waiting for the vaccine to come out.
There are parents that are literally itching for the schools to re-open. The school district will decide soon. It figures to be a hugely contentious issue.
Owen Yancher in his column in the Enterprise writes about St. James School, noting that “thus far, their vigilance has paid off. Not one St. James student has tested positive for COVID-19.”
He quotes their principal, Heather Church, being encouraged by the results, “We’re encouraged,” Church said. “Those that have returned are expressing how wonderful it is to have their kids back, not only receiving an education in-person, but for the social, emotional and developmental impact it has.
“But we also realize we have to stay vigilant through the Thanksgiving holiday so we can have a safe return later on,” she added. “We want to keep those in Davis and the rest of Yolo County safe as
well.”
And there is a push from hundreds of parents in DJUSD to get Davis students back into the classroom.
Mike Creedon from the Davis Parent Coalition sent the Vanguard a note that they have 317 signatures since November 10 urging the district to reopen “schools for in-person instruction by late winter as authorized by the state on October 14, 2020.”
That might be possible, depending on where we are with respect to a vaccine and where the curve is on COVID.
Last week, Yolo County narrowly avoided going into the purple, but it’s close. And the way COVID is surging across the country, California has fared better than most—but is now really the time to make these decisions?
The group argues, “Medical professionals advising the parent coalition recommended using the November 2020 Evidence and Guidance for In-Person Schooling During the COVID-19 Pandemic” to inform reopening recommendations.
They want a plan for reopening no later than January 7—that seems a bit too soon for my taste.
They write: “Parents who are taking time off work or organizing child care need to know in advance when children will return to school, as well as need an opportunity to review and comment on a draft plan. We recommend the District propose this plan at either a November or December Board of Trustees meeting, including a timeline for reopening, mitigation strategies, a public outreach strategy, and a contingency plan in case of an outbreak.”
There is light here. The Pfizer vaccine could be available, at least for emergency use, by the end of next month (also the end of the year).
But guess what? While supporters of Trump have trumpeted this innovation, the president not only has checked out in terms of fighting the virus right now, but also in terms of a plan for how to distribute the vaccine.
The New York Times reports that “states and cities are warning that distributing the shots to an anxious public could be hindered by inadequate technology, severe funding shortfalls and a lack of trained personnel.”
They write: “While the Trump administration has showered billions of dollars on the companies developing the vaccines, it has left the logistics of inoculating and tracking as many as 20 million people by year’s end — and many tens of millions more next year — largely to local governments without providing enough money, officials in several localities and public health experts involved in the preparations said in interviews.”
It’s not enough to have the vaccine ready—it must be distributed, and that takes money and planning that some people don’t seem to recognize.
According to the article, “The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have sent $200 million to the states for the effort, with another $140 million promised in December, but state and local officials said that was billions of dollars short of what would be needed to carry out their complex plans.”
So how have school districts done that have re-opened? According to an article in Forbes, the surge of COVID cases that was expected did not take place. But with the rise of COVID cases nationally, re-openings have slowed to a trickle.
Moreover, throughout October, schools disruptions “were already on the rise in several states” and many “districts were going back to remote learning.”
An article out over the weekend in the New York Times showed, “The news that hundreds of thousands of parents and educators had been awaiting arrived at 9:45 on Sunday morning, in a tweet from Mayor Bill de Blasio: New York City’s test positivity rate remained below 3 percent.”
Their seven-day average remained under three percent.
Indeed, “seven weeks after he managed to restart the system, the mayor is facing fresh questions about how and whether to close it: Should he stick to the 3 percent threshold he set months ago, or should he revise it, given that recent data shows that schools seem to have relatively few infections?”
On the other hand, “In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds has set the state’s closure threshold at 15 percent.”
The Times adds: “Debates about when and how to reopen schools come as America is experiencing a stunning surge in cases in most parts of the country, forcing some districts to either delay their reopening plans or cancel in-person classes altogether. The United States reported more than 159,000 new cases on Saturday alone.”
Given where we are in the pandemic, why not wait a month or two to see where a vaccine is before we risk exposing a ton of people to more spread in a community that has largely been spared from outbreak, in part because we have been so cautious?
—David M. Greenwald reporting
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Astounding that politicians set the numbers . . . and not even close.
Most of them are relying on public health advisors.
Is Kim Reynolds? Is Kristy Noem? Greg Abbot?
Texas has now surpassed California for the most cases. The Republicans haven’t been listening to the public health professionals, they have been listening to Typhoid Trump. Now the citizens that suffer under them are suffering more than necessary.
True. I meant that NY and California were following the advice of health officials.
Curious, Alan… do you have a ‘threshold’ that you opine should be used? No response is fine… just curious, not challenging…
Curious thing… about setting the #’s… some use ‘thresholds’ based on general population… others use age group and/or experience with schools that have somewhat “re-opened”…
“conservative”, and “liberal” are suddenly reversed on this matter… fascinating… “liberals” are conservative, more cautious… “conservatives” are liberal, less cautious… curiouser and curiouser.
Knowing I’ll be criticized, I believe science, based on the age-group, etc., should be used … funny that some believe that ‘remote learning’ is discriminatory… lack of computers, good internet access, etc. Yet some of them want to delay the alternative… classroom instruction… fascinating… truly…
I’m not a epidemiologist, nor do I play one on Tv, nor in blog comment sections.
“On the other hand, ‘In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds has set the state’s closure threshold at 15 percent.’”
A teacher in Des Moines recently passed away after becoming infected by a student.
If people want to send kids back to school and there are teachers willing to teach them they should go for it. As for those that prefer to keep kids home and have distance learning they should have that option as well.
“If people want to send kids back to school and there are teachers willing to teach them they should go for it. As for those that prefer to keep kids home and have distance learning they should have that option as well.”
How many deaths are necessary to make this an emergency? If “people” had the knowledge and character to deal with CV19 we’d be out of the woods by now, instead of on our way to more than a quarter of a million dead. Half-way measures don’t work. It’s time to stop appeasing the greedy, restless and religious and deal with the virus.
Yet, John, keeping schools closed is only good if you don’t want any education, as many feel that ‘remote learning’ is racially/economically biased… so, if you can’t “reach” all kids equally, we stop educating all? Rely on parents (which may be economically/racially biased)?
This is not “simple”… many factors in play… it will be a struggle to find ‘a way forward’… I suspect no one knows the ‘correct’ way forward… now or in the future…
Remember we could have a Covid-20, 21, 22… even vaccines against Covid 19 are “no guarantee of future results”…
This is getting to “rocket science”… I am not a rocket scientist…
BTW, John, nice shot at ‘religious’… have to assume you also mean anyone ‘spiritual’, whether they express that in religion or not…
“have to assume you also mean anyone ‘spiritual’, whether they express that in religion or not…”
Speaks volumes about you. I am quite fluent in English. I wrote what I meant.
There have been numerous super-spreader events linked to church services. Religious groups have sued to prevent restrictions on their services. The ability of health officers to limit attendance at church services needs to be upheld in order to protect the general public.
Bill
You make some reasonable points. I would like to address them.
1. Keeping schools closed in good only if you don’t want an education, assumes that schools as we know them are the only means to education. True the remote system we have is suboptimal. But there are other options if we would get creative. One example. Many young people have lost their jobs but could be employed if funding was provided for one on one or small group tutoring in their area of expertise. There are a host of retirees living on the edge who would probably be happy to do the same.
2. This is complicated and many factors are in play. However many other countries have been more successful and we should be adopting their strategies.
3. That there will be future pandemics is an excellent argument for doing exactly what the Bush and subsequently the Obama administrations did. Learning from previous experience, designing a well thought through pandemic playbook with the flexibility to allow for differences in means of transmission, lethality, vulnerable groups, and a host of other factors, hiring the most knowledgeable experts in infectious disease, epidemiology, and public health to lead the scientific response and the military to lead the supply and distribution responses. An emphasis on combating the disease in its region of origin as we did with Ebola. And all of this should be done at first knowledge of the presence of disease, which means the presence of an advance team on the ground of likely sites.
I have a friend who literally is a rocket scientist. Like, he can design rockets. He was warning us about the coming pandemic in January, and he says in theory, by the numbers, this can mathematically be eradicated, as has been done in some Asian countries. The problem, of course is the human beast . . . the same human beast that has the same level of stupidity that believes that year-round daylight savings time would give us an hour of extra sunlight (rather than understanding that what would really happen is to force everyone to get up an hour earlier and be at work at 7:00am instead of 8:00am, as far as how the clock relates to the sunrise, but would never just voluntarily go to work an hour early to gain that hour of light after work!).
I am going to weigh in on this issue. I am not a rocket scientist nor an infectious disease or public health expert. What I am is a retired primary caregiver who worked through 4 epidemics. My first priority is human life. Other considerations such as personal rights, education and the economy are secondary because they can be mitigated or remediated. Death cannot.
1.”Pfizer last week announced a vaccine that is 90 percent effective, and, today, Moderna’s vaccine is 94.5 percent effective. That tells us that there is a good chance a vaccine will work”. Maybe. Before we start formulating plans and timelines based on this hope, we need to accept it for what it is, hopes that the vaccine will hold up under full clinical trials, that it will be able to be distributed not just to those at greatest need, but to all who will accept it in a timely fashion. We hope that it will be available to hard to reach populations. We have no such guarantee and are not even addressing the issue until after 1/20/21 despite the assurance of “soon” from the current administration.
2.”We recommend the District propose this plan at either a November or December Board of Trustees meeting, including a timeline for reopening, mitigation strategies, a public outreach strategy, and a contingency plan in case of an outbreak.”
For heaven’s sake. Do the supporters of this statement not recognize that we are in the midst of a worsening of our current outbreak now? Have they not looked at the numbers and graphics on the dashboard?
3. “the surge of COVID cases that was expected did not take place. But with the rise of COVID cases nationally, re-openings have slowed to a trickle.”
I see a bit of magical thinking on the part of those who are pushing for re-opening. While it is true that a surge of school-related COVID cases did not occur, it is also true that the cases and deaths from COVID are increasing. Schools do not exist in an academic bubble. They are subject to the same risk from increasing circulating virus in the community as every other aspect of the community. But they are one that can be mitigated with online teaching albeit imperfectly. How does it benefit a child’s education to choose an arbitrary opening date, wait to see what the COVID numbers do and then have to close again as they inevitably rise as we have seen over and over again?
To use a different analogy – a lot of people are spiking the ball at the twenty yardline.
Just announced, Yolo County is back in the purple