By David M. Greenwald
Executive Editor
Woodland, CA – While we will have to wait a few more days for the two key races without incumbents to finalize, it looks like we are pretty much set for the sprint to March.
One of those open races is the 3rd Senate District, where incumbent Bill Dodd is stepping down. The battle to replace him appears to be between Vallejo Vice Mayor Rozzana Verder-Aliga and former longtime West Sacramento Mayor Christopher Cabaldon.
Verder-Aliga has the backing of Dodd, the endorsement of the Democratic Party, and much of the elected officials in the western portion of the district. Cabaldon is supported by most of Yolo County, but as we have seen previously in battles that Dodd and Cecilia Aguiar-Curry have previously won, Yolo County has a distinct disadvantage in this district.
There is nominally a third Democrat, Jackie Elward of Sonoma County. There are also two Republicans, Jimih Jones out of Woodland, and Thom Bogue, a Councilmember from Dixon. 
Republicans have shown they can make the top two in divided Democratic primaries, but this district remains solidly Democratic.
Another race of interest is the battle to replace retiring Judge David Rosenberg. That race pits Clara Levers, a Deputy Attorney General, against Chris Dietrich, a Davis private attorney. At this point, Levers would appear to be the overwhelming favorite as she has racked up endorsements from most of the local leadership.
There are also two county supervisor races to watch closely.
This fall Gary Sandy died unexpectedly leaving the seat open. Governor Newsom appointed his widow, Mary Sandy, to his seat. However, one of the people who had lined up to get the appointment, former councilmember Xochitl Rodriguez Murrillo is now challenging Sandy. Given that that’s a two person race, the winner in March will be elected eventually to the seat—although Sandy will hold the seat until January 2025 regardless of the outcome.
The other heavily contested seat is the Fourth District which is largely in Davis. It had been held since 2008 by Jim Provenza. It is a three person race with Sheila Allen, NJ Mvondo and Antonio De Loera-Brust vying for the seat. Allen, a former school board member in Davis, is currently the Deputy Supervisor, has the backing of Provenza and much of the local establishment. She is likely the heavy favorite, however, there is an interesting caveat here. With three persons, the candidacies of Mvondo and De Loera-Brust could be strong enough to deny Allen an outright majority in March. In that case, as we saw in 2020, it could go to a November runoff between the top two. And if that happens, it could get more interesting.
Finally note that neither the Senate race nor the Davis Supervisor race are completely finalized because the incumbent is not seeking reelection. However, it would be surprising if a major candidate emerged at the last second in either.
