By David M. Greenwald
Executive Editor
Davis, CA – The early analysis of the Yolo County Supervisors race to replace four-term Supervisor Jim Provenza was that this was going to be his Deputy and handpicked successor Sheila Allen’s race to lose.
While Allen would still rate as a heavy favorite, there is a clear pathway for this race to go in November.
With three candidates in the race—Allen, Antonio de Loera-Brust and NJ Mvondo—there is a reasonable chance that this race goes to November. In 2020, for instance, three candidates were enough to push Jim Provenza into a November run off. I still believe that COVID ultimately helped Provenza win easily in the fall.
Clearly, at this point the only candidate that can get over 50 percent is Allen. And thus this race, right now, is about (a) keeping Allen under 50, and (b) finishing second.
The advantages that Allen has is that she has been Provenza’s Deputy Supervisor for several years, she has long experience in Davis, and was a two-term (nine years total) School Board member until 2014.
She also has pretty strong support from what we could call the establishment wing of Yolo County.
She has the backing of both current Supervisors Provenza and Lucas Frerichs. Two city councilmembers—Will Arnold and Gloria Partida—and four of the five School Board members currently, not to mention pretty much all of her former colleagues from the 
school board.
In addition to Davis, she has the support of five members of the Woodland City Council, and two each from Winters and West Sacramento including Mayor Martha Guerrero, along with prominent Councilmembers Norma Alcala (WS) and Jesse Loren (Winters—who is also a resident of the Supervisorial District).
That’s a strong resume.
On the other hand, Allen’s tenure on the school board ended in a bit of a rocky fashion. The volleyball controversy, which saw Nancy Peterson resign from the school board, also had collateral damage as Allen and Susan Lovenburg wrote a letter to the editor that did not go over well, and Allen fared poorly in the 2014 City Council election.
However, that was a long time ago now and many will not remember it.
Antonio has captured a strong contingent of the more progressive portion of Yolo County and Davis elected officials: Don Saylor, Robb Davis, Joe Krovoza, Bapu Vaitla, plus some dual endorsements from Mayors Vicky Fernandez and Martha Guerrero, among others.
Perhaps more intriguing is that, while Allen has a clear advantage on endorsements—such as they are worth—the money picture is even more competitive.
The latest filing shows that for the last period—1/1/24 to 1/20/24—Sheila Allen raised $25K but $15,000 of that was a loan to herself.
Antonio de Loera-Brust raised $9250 over that period, nearly matching the $10,000 Allen raised. And NJ Mvondo raised $11,495, or $10,315 cash from others.
But pulling out a bit further, the picture becomes more interesting still.
The second half of 2023 Allen raised nearly $39K and loaned herself another $15K, for a total of $56K.
That total is nearly matched by de Loera-Brust at $52K but all of that is in monetary contributions.
That means, for the campaign, Allen has raised nearly $80,000 but a full $30K of that is in loans to herself. So, de Loera-Brust has actually outraised her with the exception of that $30,000 in loans. He has outraised her $60 to $50 thousand.
The other interesting factor is that, while de Loera-Brust had $38,421 cash on hand at the end of the most recent filing period, Allen only had $8,821.
In short, while Allen remains a strong favorite, de Loera-Brust has run a strong campaign and if he can finish second and keep Allen under 50 percent next month, who knows what happens in November.
Come November there figures to be a strong student contingent of voters, and de Loera-Brust still in his 20s could tap into that along with any kind of progressive surge and make this a far more interesting race.
This is still Allen’s to win, but de Loera-Brust has run more strongly than one might have expected.
I have met with all three candidates and attended the recent League of Women Voters Candidates Forum on Wednesday. Here are my take aways from that input:
(1) All three candidates are committed to both the delivery of social services and also to social justice. They all talk about that as a priority, and each of them has a history of accomplishments in delivering social services and fighting for social justice. The difference between them in those important areas is that Sheila and NJ have done their work locally, while Antonio has done it both locally and in Washington DC.
(2) The County’s biggest challenge is funding the current services that we have promised ourselves … all sorts of services … the services that all three candidates want to see continued and continuously delivered. To address that challenge, I believe that our community needs to work more productively in identifying and pursuing Federal and State funding sources. Antonio has talked about using his Washington DC contacts and experience to identify and pursue funding sources in Washington DC that so far have been untapped by the County. In Wednesday’s Candidates Forum, Sheila’s proposed solution was to “hire more grant writers.” Also on Wednesday, Antonio was the only one who spoke about Economic Development s an additional revenue opportunity.
(3) In assessing (2) above, my personal bottom-line is that because of his experience working in Washington, Antonio has the potential to be more productive identifying and pursuing Federal funding sources that so far have been left untapped.
(4) There are differences that come with their respective ages. Sheila has more years of experience. Antonio and NJ have the energy of youth. Sheila doesn’t need mentors at this stage of her political career. NJ will need to connect with mentors. Antonio will immediately have two mentors on the Board of Supervisors in Angel Barajas and Oscar Villegas. Sheila represents “the way things have historically been done.” Antonio and NJ represent “trying to do better.”
(5) Antonio was a good listener, even when the topics/issues I was bringing up were different than his preconceptions.
Each of us will have different ways to weigh those differences. I feel fortunate to have met with both of them one-to-one. That helped me decide which one gets my vote.
That is the most pragmatic answer, from someone who knows how things work.
That is a longer way of saying the same thing.
Hey David,
A couple corrections to your article (1) Jesse Loren isn’t in the Supervisorial District for which Antonio, Sheila and NJ are competing; (2) Sheila has barely been Jim’s deputy supe for 2 years as of this month, not “several years.”
Personally, I think all three are good people. However, I wholeheartedly support Antonio because not only is it time we pass the baton on to the next generation of leaders, but Antonio has already proven himself not only deserving of that baton, but also the candidate with the intelligence, knowledge, energy, experience and passionate commitment to working and middle class Yolo residents that is needed to actually make things happen at our county level. He will not be the Supervisor that just carries on with what has been done before — he listens carefully to constituents and colleagues, thinks through what will work and has excellent skills as a negotiator.
I’ve known Antonio since he and my daughter volunteered at the Yolo Madison migrant camp in high school, and I was impressed with him even then when I drove him in our carpool. My daughters and I often commented on Antonio’s passion and commitment to social justice for working families. Since then, I’ve observed Antonio obtain experience beyond his years, learn what it takes to serve a county’s residents by actually doing so on the ground, how to listen carefully and thoughtfully and incorporate new ideas that will work into his positions, and how to leverage his current contacts and make new connections to “get things done.” And he has already accomplished much — from leading the vaccination effort of almost 100% of the farmworkers so essential to Yolo County to assisting low-income residents access social services to assisting our State Department in its efforts to evacuate families of U.S. citizens and other vulnerable Afghans during the 2021 fall of Kabul.
He has both federal and local experience, as pointed out by Matt Williams, his parents are both immigrants as well as professionals — a UC Davis professor and scientist, and Antonio connects extremely well to everyone from undocumented Mexican farmworkers to PhD. professionals in Yolo County. He owes no favors and thus has no need to cater to “establishment” politicians to get elected or to serve us successfully, yet he clearly listens and learns from those who have come before him. He is fluent in Spanish and “fluent” in Yolo County and Davis — where he grew up, has deep roots, and is committed to represent all of us. Check out his issues page, and note his thoughtfulness and ideas on social services to our most vulnerable residents; how to deal with traffic concerns including the Mace mess; developing housing so that we can house our teachers and civil servants and no longer have students sleeping in cars; climate and public transportation; and so much more.
I’m honored to support such an accomplished leader and we will be quite lucky to have him as our next Supervisor.