CHICAGO, IL — Chicago is experiencing a remarkable and historic decline in gun violence, with the city reporting only 1,200 shooting victims so far this year — the lowest figure since the mid-1960s, according to Jeff Asher on Substack.
Although shootings have dropped, “acknowledging a modern low this year in Chicago does not mean the problem is no longer serious or is solved, but one can still appreciate a positive development that should be understood and learned from to enhance future policy efforts,” Asher wrote.
“There were nearly 5,000 people shot in Chicago in 2021, a roughly 70 percent increase relative to 2019’s pre-surge level. Gun violence fell a good bit between 2021 and 2023, largely plateaued in 2024, and has been plunging in 2025,” Asher reported.
The 1,264 victims in Chicago are down “37 percent through this point last year and down nearly 60 percent from this point in 2021,” he wrote.
The reason for the drop is unclear. Asher said, “It’s impossible to say whether the trend will continue, accelerate, or reverse in the coming months or years. But that does not make the trend so far any less encouraging.”
“The dashboard may only go back to 2010, but the city has a dataset of incidents that goes back to 2001 that can help answer when the last time Chicago had this few shootings in a year. The incident-level data does not specifically identify shootings, but the number of shooting victims in a year can be pretty closely derived by combining the number of homicides with the number of aggravated batteries with a handgun or other firearm — which largely equates to non-fatal shooting incidents,” Asher reported.
Looking at the incident-level data back to 2001, it is predicted that this year, “July featured the fewest shooting incidents of any year. This is just an informed guess though as it’s not fully clear that CPD’s incident-level data corresponds exactly with non-fatal shootings prior to 2010 since they weren’t kept,” Asher noted.
When looking at overall murders in Chicago, Asher reported, “Chicago is on pace for just over 400 murders in 2025, which could be the fewest murders there since 1965. Obviously, there’s a lot of time left in the year, but Chicago will almost certainly have way fewer murders in 2025 than it did in any year between 1966 and the early 2000s.”
Shootings, however, have become deadlier over the past two decades. “Looking at Chicago’s shooting data you see that around 12 percent of shooting victims died in 2010 compared to nearly 18 percent so far in 2025,” Asher reported.
“Still, there were 783 murders per year in Chicago on average between 1968 and 2000, far higher than 400 or so the city is on pace for this year. Given just how many more murders there were those years compared to 2025, it stands to reason that the number of shooting victims were also substantially higher those years even though we don’t have data for them,” he wrote.
There have been fewer shootings this year in Chicago than in any other year in the past 15 years, based on available data. “The finding is also likely true, extending out to 2001 based on the incident-level data. Chicago, like many American cities, still has far too much gun violence, presenting a persistent problem in need of continued attention and innovative solutions. At the same time, given how many more murders there were in the 70s, 80s, and 90s than today, it stands to reason that Chicago has likely had fewer shootings this year than any year since 1965 or 1966,” Asher concluded.
Follow the Vanguard on Social Media – X, Instagram and Facebook. Subscribe the Vanguard News letters. To make a tax-deductible donation, please visit davisvanguard.org/donate or give directly through ActBlue. Your support will ensure that the vital work of the Vanguard continues.
