NEW YORK – A new report from the Data Collaborative for Justice, drawing on nearly 18 months of statewide court data, finds that New York’s initial bail reform law did not increase overall recidivism in suburban and upstate regions — and in some cases reduced long-term reoffending. The study offers one of the most comprehensive causal evaluations to date of the 2020 reforms and provides new evidence that short-term increases among a small high-risk group did not persist over time.
A new report from the Data Collaborative for Justice examines how New York’s initial bail reform law affected recidivism in suburban and upstate regions. The study focuses on reforms in early 2020 that ended cash bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies and compares re-arrest trends across charges impacted by the law and those still eligible for bail.
Researchers found no overall change in pretrial recidivism during the six-month window before case disposition. A small high-risk group showed increased re-arrests, but the effect was limited and did not persist. Over a longer two-year follow-up period, people charged with offenses no longer eligible for bail had lower felony re-arrest rates than those still facing possible detention.
The new analysis, which used a difference-in-differences design to compare bail-ineligible and bail-eligible cases before and after reform, found that pretrial trends rose for both groups, likely reflecting disruptions from early COVID-19 months. However, after adjusting for county and month effects and shifts in the population of cases reaching arraignment, the researchers reported no statistically significant overall change in pretrial recidivism among the full population.
DCJ reported that the initial increase among the high-risk subgroup disappeared when the analysis expanded beyond the short pretrial period. There was no evidence of increased reoffending for any subgroup over two years. The results match earlier DCJ studies showing that expanded pretrial release reduced long-term recidivism in New York City while having no clear overall effect in suburban and upstate communities.
The report further shows that, while high-risk individuals — defined as people with a pending case at arraignment — experienced short-term increases in re-arrest, these effects were confined to the first months after release and did not continue over the two-year period. At the same time, low-risk individuals saw small, statistically insignificant reductions in pretrial and long-term recidivism, reinforcing prior research suggesting that limiting detention for people with minimal criminal history does not increase crime.
DCJ highlighted that policymakers have several credible evaluations to guide decisions on bail reform, including statewide research from the University at Albany, national findings from the Brennan Center, studies from Loyola University Chicago on Illinois’ reform, and MDRC’s examination of New Jersey’s system. The organization said a new statewide report coming in December will focus on whether reforms have expanded pretrial release and reduced racial and ethnic disparities.
The researchers also cautioned that pandemic-related system shocks likely affected early 2020 case patterns and that bail reform should be evaluated alongside broader shifts in policing, case processing, and court operations. Still, event-study analyses in the report show that pre-COVID months displayed the same core pattern: no system-wide increase in recidivism for most people and short-term changes primarily limited to those already at highest risk before reform.
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