Month: November 2010

I spent a good amount of time in graduate school studying polling and following the debates over the proper way to poll.  I recall in the middle part of the decade there was a long debate among pollsters about what factors should be weighed and what factors should be measured.  In particular was the question of party indentification.

The result was not necessarily the record deficits we have seen, as those came more naturally from a collapsed economy.  The political stalemate, however, meant there was never a real or workable solution.

It was a different story in California.  The AP and most networks called it early for Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer, and then watched nervously as the Senate Race remained tight until late, with Fiorina at one point holding a very narrow lead.  But the exit polls were right and the projections held.

However, as I suggested last week, Californians ought to build that moat because the wave is not going to hit here.  Recent polling suggests that, while it may be true that Republicans will turn out in large numbers across the country and Democrats will stay home, there is little evidence that will happen in California.

The California Air Resources Board released guidelines that would establish a new cap and trade market that would allow polluting facilities to trade pollution credits to offset global warming.  For instance, tree planting could cover up to eight percent of their emissions limits.

As written, Proposition 26 would recategorize many local government fees and charges as taxes, subjecting them to the approval requirements of special taxes, including two-thirds supermajority voter approval. With some limited exceptions, a tax would include any charge that provides benefits or privileges to those not charged.