By David M. Greenwald
Executive Editor
Sacramento, CA – A quote that stood out from over the week, as Anne Dunsmore, campaign manager for the pro-recall group Rescue California, talked to the Mercury News—“Regardless of whether Newsom wins or loses, Dunsmore said, the recall sends a message to Democrats.” She said, “This is just the battle. It’s not the end of the war. We’ve made our point.”
Larry Elder is similarly claiming some sort of cosmic victory, I suppose.
“We may have lost the battle but we are winning the war,” the conservative radio host told hundreds of backers in the Hilton Orange County ballroom. “We are forcing them now to do a better job. … They are now listening in ways they never have before.”
I don’t know which game they’re watching, but the only thing I have learned from all of this is just how absurd California recall laws actually are.
When Gray Davis was removed his approval rating was in the 20s—and miraculously even then he received 45 percent of the vote to not recall him. Gavin Newsom’s approval was over 50 percent in the polls and as high as 56 percent in the exit polls. Not exactly the kind of numbers that will lend themselves to a voter base effectively firing him.
Elder may think he’s forcing someone to do a better job, but I learned a few things from this and none of them have to do with a credible threat from Elder or the right.
First, there may be a vocal group of people who hate Newsom, but they represent less than one-third of the voters in 
California.
Second, the GOP is even weaker in California than you think. Despite putting forth a real effort to contest, Newsom was still comfortably ahead by 2.6 million votes.
Third, while Elder did well, the majority of people did not vote on the second question, showing that the correct strategy was actually not to put forth an alternative to Newsom and then focus on the frontrunner—in this case, Elder made an inviting target.
If anything, the results of the recall strengthened Newsom’s hand. The number one issue was COVID. The majority of people in California—about 70 percent—think that the regulations are correct, and that Newsom and the state has done a good job.
So the reverse is actually true—rather than Larry Elder and Anne Dunsmore sending a message to Newsom, the voters sent a message to the GOP: we actually want these COVID regulations. Now go get vaccinated.
The voters sent another message. If you are going to put Larry Elder as your top pick rather than someone more reasonable like Kevin Faulconer, you can’t compete in California—not even in an off-year, recall election.
Newsom may have briefly been nervous about turnout, but all the recall did was shake the beast. Newsom now has his hand strengthened as he goes into a re-election campaign that is likely not to draw anyone who is credibly a threat.
Larry Elder may well emerge as the leading Republican. I’m sure Newsom relishes that battle.
Those of us on the side of housing reform and criminal justice reform now look forward to Newsom signing the plethora of bills waiting for him from his legislature.
We also have a new focus on our agenda—reforming recall laws. Recall plays an important role in checking corrupt politicians.
As much as the French Laundry incident was ill-advised and distasteful, it amounted to a mistake, not a travesty. It is telling that French Laundry rather than San Quentin became the rallying call for this. The mismanagement by state officials of COVID led to actual deaths at San Quentin, with only lurid photos at the French Laundry.
The right is up in arms about racism in the distasteful gorilla incident, but looks the other way at Mario Woods, Stephon Clark, Willie McCoy, Sean Monterrosa, Angelo Quinto and so many more.
Finally, it is time to fix recall. A small group of outliers should not have the ability to recall a governor. We need the power to recall, but we need a higher threshold and better safeguards to prevent a repeat of this waste of time.
The way the current laws are written, even a guy with a 65 percent approval rating could have to face recall if a committed group of partisans opposes him. That’s not a good use of time or public money. We have to fix that—and fast.
The polarization in our state, as in our country, is only going to get worse.
Sadly, we really do have dire things that we need to address—COVID, climate change, justice reform, and the works; instead we had to go through another campaign to prevent someone like Elder from gaining power through the back door.
This cannot be allowed to happen again.
“Newsom now has his hand strengthened as he goes into a re-election campaign that is likely not to draw anyone who is credibly a threat.”
He also gets to use whatever is left over from the $70 million he raised, up to donor limits, in his re-election campaign.
The real message is that Trumpism is unpopular in California. As attention now turns to the New Jersey and Virginia elections we will find out in November if the message sent in California has carry over in other states.
Rose McGowen, the first woman to acuse Harvey Weinstein and suffered his criminal net of protection, has a pretty good answer to that question, if you have 43 minutes. I expected the rantings of a lunatic, but found myself agreeing with her (more than Newsom or Elder) and unable to stop listening. Was it really Gavin Newsom’s Wife or a shape-shifter from flying saucer? I’m not sure. But her description of the California power structure, elitist insiders and why she’s no longer a Democrat are fascinating.
Rose McGowan Makes Allegations Against Gavin Newsom’s Wife, Endorses Elder In California Recall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNjwZwZHCAQ
The message is that California is stupid for having the recall able to be initiated and executed with such a low threshold of voter whim. It invites anyone who simply doesn’t like the Governor the opportunity to waste a bunch of money to try to grandstand and vent through a recall campaign. I have no problem with people wanting to vote out Newsome during a standard election but this recall garbage needs change.
The message isn’t about Covid-19, nor a liking of Newsom. If the Republicans literally ran an Elephant, the Elephant would have won. The Republicans didn’t even try, and once there was a persona with far-right views relative to the electorate for Dems to attack, Newsom had nothing to fear.
Very true (although I don’t believe it was the ‘voter message’ so much as poor strategy). Not putting all their eggs in the Faulconer basket was a mistake, and I have no idea why they let Elder be the face of the party in California. Did they think his being black was an advantage? . . . or that they couldn’t attack a black man within their own party? — His values are just too conservative to ever win in a state like ours. But the way the recall is a free-for-all is stupid and bred what happened.
Ball bearings to peanut butter – those are not comparable.
I’ll agree with that – what a stupid process. How this didn’t get fixed after Schwarzenegger, I’ll never know. Now it’ll get fixed under a Democratic supermajority — I wonder how that will go #cough#.
That’s why we need rank choice voting. When things are this polarized, the Democrats can run Satan himself and they’ll pick Satan over any Republican. With rank choice voting, you can first vote for who you WANT, not against who you don’t want.
” . . . AND THE REST, are here on Gilligans Island”.
“The message isn’t about Covid-19, nor a liking of Newsom. If the Republicans literally ran an Elephant, the Elephant would have won. The Republicans didn’t even try, and once there was a persona with far-right views relative to the electorate for Dems to attack, Newsom had nothing to fear.”
It’s not like they only ran one candidate.
Are you sure Elder has been a “registered Republican” for the last 3 years? Was Trump a Republican for 5-10 years before he jumped into politics? Answer carefully.
Actors/entertainers/’businessmen” turned politicians, with a head start by ‘name/fame’ recognition… George Murphy, Ronald Reagan, “the Arnold”, Donald Trump, Kaitlin Jenner, Larry Elder, (partial list). When they “arrived on the scene”, did they have experience in political leadership? Did they have strong ties to leadership/governance when first running/elected?
Newsom, in many ways, has turned into an ‘actor’ for man years… know your audience, and play to it… you don’t have to have character to be a “character actor”… all you need is to know your audience, and play to it.
In the recall vote, it was up or down on a “character actor”… he played to his audience, letting his shills do much of the crowd motivation, flashing the ‘applause sign’, throwing dirt (a more than a bit was justified — as was some of the dirt thrown by Elder/others), and using the ‘conspiracy theory’ as it regards the assertion that the entire group of those starting or supporting the recall effort were part of a ‘Republican plot’ (a D-anon movement emerging, which would confront/respond to the R-anon and Q-anon movements?), and offering budget surplus largess to feed/grow “the base”, etc.
As to the replacement side of the ballot, it was name recognition, and very conservative that prevailed… still playing to a known ‘audience’, looking for applause (votes).
If the Republicans put Elder up as prime standard bearer next year, it will be a cakewalk for almost any Democrat to prevail, big time, in June/November 2022. The NPP’s probably won’t go for that, not all Republicans (sorry, he’s Black), and almost zero Democrats.
If Newsom runs again, the Republicans need to be unified, propose a moderate candidate, or concede. The NP’s are nearly (within ~1%) as much of an electoral “base” as the Republicans are… both parties should be wary of who they support, moving forward.
By latest totals, Newsom prevailed in the recall election with ~64%. In 2018 he beat Cox by 62-38%.
One striking result in the exit polls – 62 percent of voters with a negative view of the Republican party.
Did they ask how they view Democrats?
Actually, what was the exact question(s) asked?
And what is the margin of error, etc.?
You would have to pull the exact questions
Democrats were viewed positively by 51% of respondents.
So, negatively by 49%?
But in regard to Newsom, one wonders if it’s really “support” or a vote against Elder.
Newsom isn’t really the problem per se.
Ultimately, it’s the influence of money in politics (both parties), and the “wokeness” that’s associated with Democrats.
No, there is a sizable neutral ground, I will see if I can dig up the exact numbers.
Positive results on handling pandemic, Democratic turnout advantage help Newsom retain seat in recall election
From the article that Hiram posted:
Kind of weird, given Newsom’s attendance at the French Laundry (and more importantly – the reason that he thought it important to be there).
Also weird, given that the pandemic is (somewhat) behind us. Honestly, how many paranoid mofos are there who believe that this is a serious threat to them, if they’re vaccinated and wear a mask?
Well, I guess folks *might* become upset when a market-rate four-plex is built next-door to them. And then, they’ll ask how that happened.
It’s not weird, people rate policy over personal fop-ah. And the pandemic isn’t somewhat behind us. One of the big points is that the policies in California have prevented California from becoming like Florida and some of the other red states.
I have seen statistics which show that California wasn’t “spared” – at least until the Delta variant showed up.
What are the statistics (of being hospitalized or dying) if one is vaccinated and wears a mask?
Is this actually what people are basing their votes on?
This was CNN’s analysis of the COVID issue: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/politics/california-recall-covid-gavin-newsom-larry-elder/index.html
Here is another analysis on COVID’s impact –
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/briefing/gavin-newsom-recall-covid-referendum.html?referringSource=articleShare
I would think that the more serious threat is the lack of vaccination world-wide, allowing the virus to further mutate.
And if that occurs, good luck California (or anywhere else).
Newsom’s French Laundry thing was really stupid on his part.
I think it’s comments like this that galvanized opposition to Larry Elder and in favor of Newsom:
Larry Elder Vows to Repeal California Vaccine and Mask Mandates, Rally Crowd Goes Wild
That’s when all the Southern States were and still are being slammed with the Delta variant, all while their governors are opposing any mandates, especially opposing mask mandates that school districts might want to impose.
Elder’s comments probably helped him to consolidate the support that he did and stand out in the field, but I think it also helped to galvanize support for Newsom. All Newsom’s campaign had to do was ask, “Do want California to be in the same COVID situation as Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas? No? Well, then oppose this recall.”
Regarding school districts, I’ve seen some pretty heated meetings involving the public on “both sides”. Not sure why there is a “side” regarding this in the first place, though I’m sure that most kids don’t like wearing masks (and probably don’t do so correctly, much of the time).
I’m not entirely sure that schools should be opening at all, right now. Then again, how would that impact parents (and kids)?
George Carlin once said something along the lines of, “don’t blame me – I didn’t vote”.
No one *likes* wearing masks. But most of the kids I have talked to, prefer to wear them right now.
Regardless of the issue, kids’ views usually reflect their parent’s views – at least until a certain point.
To cite George Carlin (again), he said that he was a Catholic until he reached the “age of reason”. (Something like that.)
Ask Matt Walsh’s kids what they think. 🙂 That is, if he allows you to interview them in the first place.
(That guy is pretty amusing, regardless of one’s political views.)
It might be interesting to see what Greta’s parents think about climate change. (She may be an anomaly, but I haven’t checked into that.)
“…and offering budget surplus largess to feed/grow “the base”
State employees all over California should be thankful to the recall promoters for the fat raises that appeared in their September 1 paychecks timed perfectly to hit right before the election. I doubt the yes organizers couldn’t see that the state would have the largest budget surplus in its history in the same fiscal year as the recall election.
They ought to be using that surplus to pay down the deficit created by unfunded liabilities, throughout the state. Davis could use a “piece” of that.
And saving some for the next “rainy day”. (Or in reference to climate change, the next “non-rainy” day.)
With $75 Billion they can do all of it.
Speaking of polls, check this out. I just came across it:
The Big Lie is (unfortunately) winning (msn.com)
Pretty amazing. It’s as if you repeat things enough times, people believe it. Other issues come to mind regarding that, as well.
Truth be told, I don’t think that elections reflect the “will of the people”, either. But not as a result of (blatant) fraud. It has more to do with the system which provides the “choices” in the first place. (And not just limited to the candidates – but also the issues presented. Of course, those tend to be interrelated.)
A few honest questions… (your view, or others, who choose to respond)
What constitutes “blatant” fraud, as to elections, particularly Yolo County and/or CA?
Do you believe there is “fraud” in Yolo County and/or CA elections? If so, please cite examples, and how they are fraudulent…
What are the moral, ethical, legal differences between “blatant fraud” vs. “fraud”… [except the obvious where ‘blatant’ gets caught, may well be punished, where ‘fraud’ may not be caught, but if caught, the sanctions are the same, legally…]
I’m seriously not ‘baiting’ you, I really want to know… after working 37 hours, Sat-Tuesday at the polls, based on comments made by voters, there are a significant # of folk who believe VBM is a ‘fraud’… and, bolstered by social media, “Q-Anon types”, Republicans, feeding untruths, we were swamped with folk turning in their VBM’s, insisting they wanted to “vote in person”… once we’d point out that, they were at the polling place, in person, and their ballot was exactly the same as what we would issue, and if they voted it there, put it in the envelope, place it in our container, and it would arrive at the elections office at exactly the same time as a ‘regular vote’ (because it is a ‘regular vote’!), they’d have none of THAT, so we did not argue, accepted their surrendered ballot, issued them a new one. “What was the point of THEIR” behavior?
I am preparing, intending to submit, a commentary to VG, Emptyprize, LWV, etc. on this issue about VBM’s and all the lies and deceptions out there in this regard.
Given my ~ 25 years working the polls, the term “fraud” as to elections, particularly in Yolo County, raises my ‘hackles’. Implies I am a “minion”…
I promise to attribute no quotes, and will summarize rather than direct quotes.
No – I don’t believe that blatant fraud occurs to any significant degree, such as that alleged by some regarding the presidential race.
Corruption (regarding the system) is a better-way to put it. That is, the influence of money and interests that support candidates and issues.
Here’s a definition of fraud. I think one can argue that this occurs in politics, as defined by at least one of these definitions. But not necessarily regarding the integrity of the voting process itself. (That is, AFTER the corrupt system presents its “menu of choices” to voters.)
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fraud
I do like that one quote from days gone by, however – “vote early and often”.
How can you tell? Do they look like this guy?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/03/us/politics/qanon-shaman-capitol-guilty.html
I’m hoping that someone has the hutzpah to wear this for Halloween, if not into the polling place.
No… except for one, who was belligerent, in your face (and refusing to wear a mask)… most, were anywhere from early 20’s, to mid-late 60’s… completely ‘normal’ looking… and some I knew… normally completely rational, except on this issue with VBM’s. And ~90 % indicated they came to that conclusion based on what they had read “on-line”…
I’m dead-dog serious here… not “baiting” anyone. I want to know, so I can either promote changes, or refute lies.
Can they be kicked-out for that? Isn’t that a requirement indoors?
In other words, aren’t masks required to vote “in person”?
One can only hope that they’re not reading the Vanguard.
My “dog” is still alive (and full of light-heartedness, this evening).
Maybe someone else will chime in.
Ron O… you may never see this, as I’m @ 5 comments, and don’t seem to have the exemption that some do…
The context was ‘belligerent’, and, ‘not wearing mask’… it is a state/local requirement (mask) but the “right to vote” ‘trumps’ that, so we were instructed to let them vote, but ask them to do a 12′ separation… the one would have none of that… we even offered to serve him outside, where he could still vote (like “curbside voting”), but he demanded to be accommodated HIS way and rather than screw up other voters’ rights, we ‘dealt’ with it. The dude did this in November as well… more of a bullying type than a “patriot”… forgetting Alan M’s term, but starts with an “a”, and ends with an “e”…
Don’t much appreciate the “light-hearted” dog thingy… I was trying to make a serious point. I appreciate (other than that) your apparently honest response, and hope you understand that I am honestly responding to your questions. In the here and now.
As to ‘belligerent’, if an assault occurs, it’s a 911 call, and that is last choice when you are trying to accommodate voters… he didn’t quite cross the assault line. I suspect he knew the ‘rules’ we were operating under, and ‘played them’… to near the limit, but not crossing it (bullies are inherently cowards… they dissolve when strongly confronted).
No. Fed and State Constitutional laws, and laws enacted pursuant to that, ‘trump’ state/local “directives”… there are no “laws” as to masks, physical separation, etc. Those are directed towards ‘establishments’, not individuals, as to enforcement.
Interesting, regarding the “right to vote” and masks.
Another interesting article that I just came across:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/newsom-lost-big-in-californias-conservative-state-of-jefferson-it-barely-mattered/ar-AAOutXz?li=BBnbfcL
Thank you so much, Ron O, for feeding the trolls/stupids, with your 9:08 P post and cite… I greatly appreciate that (yeah, right…)… I assume by you posting the cite, you agree with it. I may be wrong.
Conservatives/Republicans have oft claimed fraud, if they lost... exactly the same as liberals/Democrats… locusts…
Often, claims of fraud, are, in fact, fraudulent. Just waiting to see what Republicans and/or Elder does…
I have never seen anyone comment on here regarding their personal belief that there’s widespread election fraud. I have not seen anyone on here, for example, argue that Trump actually won the election.
You’re wrong. I just find it interesting. Even more so, given that there’s such differences relatively nearby.
These are folks who probably aren’t reading the Vanguard.