By David M. Greenwald
Executive Editor
The number of new cases topped 200,000 yesterday for the first time since early in 2021. It is now more than double what it was last month, and up from 150,000 earlier this week. Frankly I wouldn’t be shocked
to see it go to more than 500,000 in a day.
It is hard to know for sure, as there are some studies that seem to suggest that Omicron may be less severe, but I have seen analysis suggesting that might be a statistical artifact. It may be that, because Omicron has hit people who are already vaccinated or who already have had COVID, those people are getting less sick, but that people who are unvaccinated and have yet to be exposed to COVID might be just as vulnerable as to Delta and the original variant.
The best solution—get vaccinated and make sure you have had your booster. Despite breakthrough cases, the chance of getting sick and the chance of dying are far higher if you are unvaccinated.
Look at these charts as presented in the NY Times:
If you look at both charts, there are two key findings here. One is that you are far more likely to get infected if you are unvaccinated and far more likely to get a serious illness. The rise and fall of cases is being driven by changes in the rate of infection and death among those who are unvaccinated, while the graph for the vaccinated is relatively flat.
The vaccination rate for those over 12 is at 71 percent for both, and 83 percent for one dose. That’s probably getting pretty close to the limit.
The NY Times yesterday reported that “health experts say the roughly 15 percent of the adult population that remains stubbornly unvaccinated is at the greatest risk of severe illness and death from the Omicron variant, and could overwhelm hospitals that are already brimming with Covid patients.”
They have found “the threat of Omicron is doing little to change people’s minds.”
Moreover, “Public-health campaigns and employee vaccine mandates have made progress since the summer at reducing the ranks of unvaccinated fence-sitters, people without easy access to health care and those who were hesitant but persuadable.”
There is a huge partisan divide here, “with more than 91 percent of adult Democrats receiving at least one shot, compared with about 60 percent of adult Republicans.”
The problem as we continue to see is those who are not vaccinated pose a huge threat to everyone in a lot of different ways.
First, that data shows that even people who are vaccinated with their booster can get infected. Most are not getting sick and not going to the hospital and dying, but that number is not zero. A huge number of Americans are either over 65 or have pre-existing medical conditions and are vulnerable to serious illness.
Second, the combination of not wearing masks, gathering in large groups, and not being vaccinated is prolonging the agony here. People who want to get back to *normal* are contributing to us not being able to get back to normal.
Just look what was reported in Yolo County—there was a single workplace holiday party. The party had 50 attendees. We don’t know who this was, but we know the result. Of the 50 attendees, there were 16 cases, of which at least 10 were Omicron.
All sixteen were fully vaccinated and 8 had received their booster shots.
And you say, well, chances are they didn’t get sick, but what happens between the time they are infected and this was detected—how many more vulnerable people got exposed?
Omicron was probably unavoidable given the lack of vaccine reach around the world. But at some point there might be a mutation and variant that occurs because of the lack of vaccination in the US that could throw us under the bus yet again.
We are playing with fire here.
Finally, the third impact is on the hospitalization rate. Even if most of the hospitalized are those unvaccinated, that doesn’t mean the rest of us aren’t impacted by that. It means fewer beds and less response and fewer resources for all the other reasons why people are normally hospitalized.
The NY Times quotes Dr. Jose Romero, the Arkansas health secretary. He explained that “his state’s vaccination rate, which is hardly budging, reflected how deep the opposition to the shot was among those left to convince.
“Unfortunately, we can’t say that we’ve identified a single thing that has really moved the needle in any great extent,” Dr. Romero said. “It’s just a slow chipping away at this. It’s sort of a mouse eating the elephant one bit at a time. And you just keep going.”
At some point if the hospitals are overwhelmed, perhaps people who refuse vaccination get denied beds and ICU spaces. That won’t convince people to get vaccinated, because many of them never believe that they will get sick, but it would at least address the hospital resource issue.
In the meantime, I am pretty much convinced that we will never go back to normal. But we will see.
People have figured out that Omicron isn’t much of a concern, so they stopped getting tested if they felt only mildly ill.
Also of course, Omicron passes trough people very quickly (under a week) so even though it’s very infectious, it doesn’t have a long lasting impact on the population.
After this cases of all kinds of Covid should be way down for a good long while, the last gasp of the virus taking the same evolutionary path they all do.
That is until some govt researcher in a govt lab discovers the next virus to unleash on the world’s population.
Good post Chris.
When Omicron first appeared the stock market took note and started to dive. But when it was discovered that Omicron wasn’t getting people as sick as Covid or the Delta variant the stock market quickly recovered.
Yup, now that our enemies have seen its effect and how we reacted that’s a forgone conclusion.
As I said, that’s mostly a statistical artifact. Because it is infecting more vaccinated people, it appears to get them less sick.
“But Omicron’s lowered risk of hospitalization in all three countries also appears to be due in large part to immunity in those populations. Many of the infected already had protection against severe disease, either because of previous infections or vaccinations.” (Link)
You think that with everything else, THAT was the only or primary variable? Perhaps for ‘day-traders’… and like the unvaccinated, those ignoring social distancing etc., I really have no sympathy for those folk…
Yeah know… Rights as they are defined in the constitution were people agreeing that those rights were a good idea. I think most people would agree that we have a right to LIFE today. So why is it people in the United States and around the world not pounding the table to stop people and governments from experimenting with viruses and other such things they could actually eradicate the human race from the face of this planet. But instead we’re stuck in this rut trying to solve homelessness in starvation.
???
I think at some point the thing that will/should move the dial in all this is when insurance companies start to limit and remove people from medical coverage of Covid if they’re not vaccinated. I thought I read somewhere that some insurance companies had quietly lifted some sort of emergency grace period on unvaccinated Covid coverage and that going forward Covid sickness coverage was going to more heavily scrutinized by health insurance companies.
Going forward, I think we should all proceed to whatever degree we all feel safe in groups and crowds. But with ongoing vaccinations to relatively protect us, as long as the science says we’re mostly safe…I don’t see any reason why we should just proceed with life with only some mitigation measures. I do think that federal, state and local governments need to be far bettered prepared to act if/when Covid (again) or something else spreads and endangers us.
I do think that federal, state and local governments need to be far bettered prepared to act if/when Covid (again) or something else spreads and endangers us.
Hmmm…
That will never happen unless the people rise up and demand it to happen otherwise you’re just going to kick back. You got to remember these are the village idiots making these viruses…
Hmmm…
That will never happen unless the So why is it people in the United States and around the world not pounding the table to stop people and governments from experimenting with viruses and other such things that could actually prevent the eradication of the human race from the face of this planet.
The experimentation with viruses and “other such things”, observations, led to vaccinations against smallpox, polio, measles, whooping cough, and effective treatments against rabies, infections (penicillin and derivatives), plague [Black death], etc.
Yeah, research should be stopped immediately… right… that’s a good way to prevent the eradication of the human race from the face of this planet.
After all, the plague only is estimated to have had a 15-25% reduction of folk during pandemics… they wisely chose not to do experiments, and just accepted things as “God’s punishment”… let’s go back to the “Dark Ages”… very organic… less expensive… where do I sign the petition to stop research?!?
Weaponizing viruses, bacteria is a different topic… I focus on your point about “research”…
Unless you are following the lead of an American “leader”, who has asserted that China ‘created’ Covid, to destabilize the west… I don’t buy that ‘religion’…
Unless you are following the lead of an American “leader”, who has asserted that China ‘created’ Covid, to destabilize the west… I don’t buy that ‘religion’…
Nope I don’t think that was the objective but they did do a damn good job of taking down the West though but they also took down themselves also China is also feeling the effects just like the rest of the world.
This covid BS was unleashed on the world by a bunch of really really smart stupid people that call themselves researchers. Labs like this all over the world run by a whole bunch of researchers and politicians that think there’s a smartest people in the room. Now do you really want your life and their hands I for one don’t.
We don’t stop screwing mother nature she’s going to get her baseball bat hit us over the head.
Yes, and the plague (bubonic), smallpox, “Spanish flu”, cholera, polio, yaws, anthrax, were all caused by governments and the ‘mad scientists’… got it… and all originated with folk who wanted to ‘curse’ their enemies… very wise/insightful…
Again, those who want to weaponize those is another matter…
Since you brought up pigs, let’s add trichinosis (note that very observant Jews and Muslims avoid any pork -another plot)… and do you understand the danger of the chemicals in lipstick (99.9 % of those who use lipstick are dead by the time they ae 100!)? An insidious, foreign plot of governments and researchers… thank you for your great, thoughtful, informed, insights…
Everyone knows this, but some for some reason are unwilling to admit it. This virus came out of the Wuhan Lab.
You actually believe that?
Absolutely.
Wow
Wow! I can’t believe that you’re gullible enough to believe what China has fed the world. So COVID came from Wuhan and there also just happens to be the Wuhan Institute of Virology where they were developing COVID-19 using coronaviruses from bats. What a coincidence.
I don’t buy what China says, I buy what the scientific consensus and the US Intelligence report says.
This is the best analysis to date of why a lab leak is unlikely: https://www.science.org/content/article/why-many-scientists-say-unlikely-sars-cov-2-originated-lab-leak
I don’t believe it, but I sure believe it’s a likely possibility. And may God dåmn Google to héll for suppressing anyone who mentioned it as a possibility early on, when at least now it’s considered a possible origin.
And, like the gymnast with a W sewn on each cheek of her gym sorts, I would like to add: WoW MoM WoW
Mr Bill. ?
Must admit you do a very good job of putting lipstick on a pig.
Five comment rule: no more than five comments per person per day on a thread.
Because a number of Americans refuse to get vaccinated, we will have to continue with COVID restrictions.
Because a number of Americans refuse to wear masks and refuse to get vaccinated, we will need to continue to restrict indoor gatherings and large group events.
Vaccine mandates work. They help to persuade people who are vaccine hesitant. They should be employed wherever possible.
Vaccine passports will be necessary for us to resume large-scale gatherings, and travel by plane, trains and buses. They shouldn’t be, but persistent refusal to get vaccinated has already caused many needless deaths, long-haul COVID, and serious economic and social disruption. We should be at a much higher vaccination rate in this country by now.
Nobody should be allowed on any mass transit without proof of vaccination and booster status. Anyone who argues with airline personnel about it should be put on a no-fly list. The same people who oppose vaccine mandates also oppose vaccine passports. We’ll have to require them anyway.
At this point we are doing all of this to protect those who aren’t vaccinated, and that includes people who cannot do so for various reasons. They will be the unfortunate collateral damage of the misguided demand for ’personal freedom’ that seems to be the basis for much of the vaccine refusal.
People aren’t going to go back to work in certain types of jobs if they don’t feel safe doing so. The same people who oppose vaccine mandates and vaccine passports bemoan the fact that people are choosing not to work.
We cannot deny medical insurance or health care to individuals even when they make stupid decisions. I certainly wouldn’t want that decision to be in the hands of insurance carriers, given their history of past abuses of that discretion. When someone gets really sick, they get treated. Unfortunately that is a big strain on our health care system and it’s past the breaking point in some regions. But that just means more state and federal funds have to be directed to health care.
If you support the politicians who are arguing against vaccine mandates, you are furthering the damage and delaying our economic recovery. If you support the politicians who are arguing against vaccine mandates, you are furthering the increased costs to our health care system and increasing the risk to everyone who needs medical treatment of any kind.
I am sick of people disparaging researchers and epidemiologists. It’s intellectually lazy and ultimately leads to adverse consequences for the public. Debates within the scientific community reflect the skepticism that is basic to applied science. Debates from outside of the scientific community usually just arise from ideology and don’t tend to be evidence-based.
Arguments about the origin of the virus are pointless diversions and almost always arise from fringe factions. There is no evidence of a deliberate release.
I don’t think anyone here said it was deliberate. But it happened none the less.
I’m against vaccine mandates, for vaccine passports, and I bemoan that people aren’t working because the government made it more profitable for some not to work rather than work notwithstanding a particular job’s exposure risk.
So how in God’s name are all three of these attributed to ‘the same people’ ? That’s not even true with me.
And I sure as fluck never said it was deliberate.
And there it is 😐
Link to a interesting read on this subject
https://theintercept.com/2021/09/06/new-details-emerge-about-coronavirus-research-at-chinese-lab/
The issue with many of the lab-leak deniers is that we can’t rely on them to be objective. Many of the lab-leak deniers, including the NIH and WHO, have substantial conflicts – they are involved in research with WIV, funded research at Wuhan, or have livelihoods that depend on research similar to what has been alleged/conducted at WIV. Opinions and conjectures from this group are suspect.
The source of the initial infections is incredibly important to know – we will not know anything more about how to prevent the beginning of another pandemic if we don’t know how this one started. A panel/task force of independent scientists and officials should thoroughly investigate the source of the outbreak. Eco Health should be forced to disgorge everything in its files and emails regarding research at WIV or related to SARS CoV related viruses. Entities with knowledge of covid-19 should be supplying information to this panel. The panel should continue to collect and review information until the source is determined, or concludes that it is impossible to determine.
Yes Shane, it boggles one’s mind to think there are people who won’t even consider that COVID came from a lab in Wuhan which is the epicenter of this virus where they just happened to be working on and developing coronaviruses.
It was considered and rejected as a likely possibility.
Yes, it was denied by the parties involved, does that surprise you?
I don’t go by that
Since for some reason my other reply to this was deleted I’ll change my comment to:
And I and many others don’t go by what you go by either.
I was responding to this: “it was denied by the parties involved, does that surprise you?”
My response was that I was not going by the denials of the parties involved, but rather looking at the where the scientific field is on the issue. The denials aren’t why scientists don’t believe it was a lab leak. I would point out that in just the two years (not quite) since COVID we have seen Delta and Omicron evolve in the natural environment during the course of natural evolution of mutation, so why is so shocking that the disease itself evolved from animals to people? I would also point out, that you have not really offered evidence of a lab leak, rather it’s based on speculation at best. In any case, Bill is correct, none of this has anything to do with the article which was based on what we need to do going forward.
I’m not so concerned about the source, as the fact that Google labeled the theory as ‘misinformation’. I found this information claiming Google did that, on Google.
Bill Maher Slams Facebook & Google For Filtering Out COVID-19 Wuhan Lab Theories On ‘Real Time’
https://decider.com/2021/06/26/bill-maher-slams-facebook-google-for-filtering-out-covid-19-wuhan-lab-theories/
Following what I think you’re saying, at this point, “it is what it is”… instead of ‘Monday morning quarterbacking’, we should focus on the game and how to win…
Vaccine, good… getting the vaccine, good…masking, good… distancing, good… paranoia/hype, bad… denial/blame seeking/hype, bad…
The game is on… it will be good if we focus on moving the football rather than focusing on the previous plays… this is not an intellectual exercise… people are getting ill, spreading, getting hospitalized, dying… this is not a test… it is real, and we need to rationally, scientifically, calmly, face the reality and act (including research/study) responsibly… but, not overreact to nor deny the reality…
Here’s some more information about what really happened at that Chinese lab
https://usrtk.org/biohazards/biosafety-expert-close-to-wuhan-institute-of-virology-urged-associates-there-to-address-his-tough-questions-about-lab-origin-of-sars-cov-2/
Interesting cite… seems credible… but what do we do in the here and now?
Folk are getting ill, passing the virus, getting hospitalized, and dying in some cases… Getting back to the topic,
I love history… but as to Covid, it is the future, not the past… we need to look and act forward, informed by the past, but not dwelling on it, in the here and now.
Just an opinion.
Oh, and Covid may well not be ‘solvable’… it is to be understood, mitigated, and survived…
If it were discovered that it was North Korea, Syria, or any other nation currently on the U.S. s**t list was performing this research (even if the research was being performed IN the country, unsupported by government funding) then that country would have been bombed, “freed”, and had it’s land cut into strips and sold to the highest bidder by now.
This will happen again we should learn by this next time we may not be so lucky.