Budget/Fiscal

Analysis: Results of Election Should Not Be Interpreted As A Tax Revolt

statecat.pngMany on the right have argued the results of this election should be interpreted as an extension of the Tea Parties that emerged in April and a revival of the tax revolt from the 1970s.  The problem with that interpretation is that many of the people who voted against the ballot propositions were actually political liberals who had a very different reason for voting against it.

An additional problem with this interpretation is that of the propositions, only Proposition 1A impacted taxes and even that only two years down the road and only to continue already implemented tax increases for an additional two years.

Commentary: For California It’s May 20th and the Sky is Falling

statecat.pngIn most ways, what happened at the polls yesterday (or perhaps what did not happen as most people did not vote) is only symbolic in terms of the bigger scheme.  The voters were asked in a way to codify an imperfect and in the end insufficient budget deal from February to balance the budget shifting, borrowing, repaying, and eventually capping future spending.

The voters rejected such overtures and probably Assembly Majority Leader Albert Torrico hit the nail on the head when he said last night:

Vanguard Recommendation: Vote No on All Budget Initiatives

prop_1a_impact

I have gone back and forth on the ballot initiatives as to whether or not to support them.  A few weeks ago I reached what I thought was my final decision, I would simply hold my nose and vote for them.  At that time, we were projected to have about a 14 or 15 billion dollar deficit if the propositions failed.  That would be reduced to a more manageable but still serious eight billion.  I did not like what the propositions did, but if they failed other things that were important would have to be cut, including more from education.  So I was going to hold my nose and vote for them.

It is ironic that in the last week, the very measures that Governor Schwarzenegger has trotted out to “scare” voters into for the measures, are the very reason I am now going to vote against all of the propositions.  The deficit is too large and passing the propositions makes too little impact on the budget deficit to warrant holding my nose.  I will briefly get into each one of them individually, but many of them rely on simply shifting and borrowing monies.  That’s not much of a solution to the longer term problem.

Bad to Worse: Governor Projects Deficit at 21 Billion Week Before Special Election

statecatCritics are crying foul with the timing of Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger’s announcement that the state will face a deficit of 21 billion dollars should the state not pass the ballot initiatives next Tuesday.  But at this point it almost does not matter.  If they do pass it, the deficit will be a mere 15 billion dollars, hardly cause for celebration.

At this point, six billion is helpful if Propositions 1C, 1D, and 1E pass.  That state would gain six billion dollars against the total total deficit by virtue of shuffling monies around.

What Happens on May 20 After the Ballot Measures Fail

There is an election one week from Tuesday and the electorate is angry.  And the electorate has every right to be angry. 

According to a recently released survey from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), Californians are extremely pessimistic about the California economy, give the governor and legislature approval ratings that hover near record lows, and show less trust in state government than they have ever before. The PPIC survey found that a mere 16 percent of likely voters say they can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right.   And they think the nation as a whole is in better shape than California.

Local Schools Poised To Take Huge Hit if the Propositions Do Not Pass

As we discussed at the end of March, Proposition 1B ensures that schools receive $9.3 billion over time, so that the money cut during the current budget crisis is not permanent.  The payments to schools will come out of the newly created rainy day fund, but not until 2011-2012 when the state’s fiscal outlook is expected to improve.  However, in order for that to occur, there must actually be a rainy day fund.  This means that Prop 1B is contingent upon Prop 1A passing.  If both Prop 1A and Prop 1B pass, it would guarantee $8 billion in school payments.

As it turns out that is just the tip of the iceberg for education.  To see that we need to do a little math.  In March, it was announced that the state was already $8 billion in the hole despite the budget agreement from February 20, 2009.  Frankly, it may be worse than that by now, but let us assume that is the case.  The ballot propositions provide for a variety of shifting and borrowing on monies.  If they do not pass, the state will have to find another $7 billion.  So the total impact will be roughly $15 billion that the state has to find.

Vanguard Radio will Host Senator Mark Leno on April 29

mark_lenoVanguard Radio will host California Senator Mark Leno on its radio show April 29, 2009 from 6 to 7 pm on KDRT 95.7 FM. Senator Leno will be discussing his pending universal health care legislation, The California Universal Health Care Act of 2009 (SB 810).

The California Universal Health Care Act of 2009 would guarantee comprehensive health care benefits to every California resident and streamline claims and reimbursements, which will save billions of dollars in health care administrative costs.

 

Brief Conversation with Assemblymember Mariko Yamada

yamada_dc09_1The Vanguard caught up with first term Assemblywoman Mariko Yamada at the California Democratic Convention in Sacramento yesterday.  Yamada serves the 8th Assembly District representing Davis and much of Yolo County and the Northern and Eastern Portions of Solano County. 

Yamada was asked whether it was different being at the convention now as an Assemblymember.

“It is and it isn’t.  It’s different of course because I have a different role.  But it’s the same because I’m sitting here with all the delegation and I find that to be the proper place to be.”

Vanguard Radio on April 15 Discusses Health Care in California

Write in to ask questions of Jessica Rothhaar from Health Access –

Universal health care has long been on the agenda, but for nearly 20 years, politicians from state legislators up to the President of the United States have discussed health care reform, but have not been able to implement it.

At present, there are competing health care bills working their way through the California Legislature.  In addition, President Obama is working hard to find a way to pass national health care reform.

It is Time To End the Two-Thirds Rule

In theory the requirement in California to obtain the consent of two-thirds of the legislature to vote for a budget sounds like an idea that would promote consensus building and bipartisanship. I wish I could say that was in the intent, but it was more mundane. The intent was to prevent tax increases from being enacted. For many years it has accomplished exactly that; however as time has gone on, it has exacted a higher and higher price. It has prevented the type of wholesale structural changes that we need for reform to take place.

It has led to gridlock, forcing budget after budget to be adopted late. It has led to unnecessary delay, wasted time, and worse yet, in a crisis outright paralysis.

Breaking News: Budget Passes – Maldonado Casts Deciding Vote

imageCalifornia

After an all night session – 45 hours for the entire session – the State Senate voted early this morning 27 to 12 to approve a massive state budget that includes spending cuts, tax increases, and borrowing money to close to $40 billion deficit. California has been at a standstill for the last five days as legislators grappled over a state budget. Governor Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders struck a deal with Senator Maldonado in exchange for providing the third needed vote to pass the state budget. The three Republican votes for the state budget came from Senator Abel Maldonado (R-Santa Maria), Senator Dave Cogdill (R-Modesto), and Senator Roy Ashburn (R-Bakersfield).

Is this When the Planes Start Landing on the Lawn?

imageCalifornia

It is ironic that Sacramento chose yesterday to honor Captain Chesley Sullenberger who heroically managed to land his imperiled aircraft into the Hudson River and averted disaster by saving his crew. It is ironic because the plane analogy is a metaphor for what is happening right now in Sacramento. In this case the state is out of fuel and needs emergency money in order to land and avert a crisis.

As Senator Cox spoke yesterday on the floor of the Senate, he made reference to a number of metaphors including a correction of Senator Calderon’s botched reference to “Chicken Little.” Senator Cox spoke about the straw that broke the camel’s back, implying that the state taxpayers could no longer bear the load of the tax burden (a tax burden that by most measures ranks somewhere in the middle of the country).

Maldonado Holds California Hostage to his Flights of Fancy

imageCalifornia

About the last person I expected to be talking about on the Vanguard was Senator Abel Maldonado. Maldonado represents among other places my former hometown of San Luis Obispo. I remember him as the Mayor of Santa Maria, the moderate Republican who defeated the right wing racist Mayor of that town. He rose to prominence as a moderate, often casting the decisive vote on budgets.

He’s about the last person I expected to be holding up the budget, but here he is doing just that. And it appears to be all personal from where I sit. It has nothing to do with policy. Nothing to do with what’s good for this state. It is all about what’s good for Abel.

Republicans Hold Budget Process Hostage–Their Math Does Not Add Up

imageCalifornia

Valentine’s Day came and went, and still there was no budget. On deep into the night it continued, desperately trying to find one more Republican Senator brave enough to end this nightmare, to cast the yes vote, and to save the state of California from fiscal turmoil the likes of which it has not seen before in this lifetime or many others. And yet on Sunday, there were no heroes.

First, the word came that Dave Cox, the Senator from the Sacramento Area could be the third vote. But late on Saturday night or Sunday morning, he said no.

Prospective Budget Includes Deep Cuts to Education

No CSR Flexibility*, Categorical Flexibility

imageCalifornia

At the outset, I should qualify this analysis as saying that it could change in a final budget bill or could get thrown out the window if there is no budget deal.

For this year, the budget has a $2.4 billion reduction for what was budgeted in the 2008-09 Budget Act. It has a $5 billion reduction in Prop 98 Funding from 2008-09 to 2009-10.

This is the Worst Possible Budget Deal But It Needs to Pass

imageCalifornia

Given the fact that this is the bicycle capital of the world, I risk a lot by saying this, but the priorities of people are a bit off in this country. Originally the state legislature was going to meet at 9 am this morning to vote on the budget agreement.

However there is one problem. Tomorrow in Davis there will be the Amgen Bike Tour. In Sacramento that will be today from 1 pm to 4 pm. There will be 100,000 people in downtown Sacramento today. Not of course to watch the budget vote, but to watch Lance Armstrong.

And Still We Have No Budget

imageCalifornia

I rarely comment in this space about comments to other posts, but given that I am trying to bring together multiple threads into a single article, it actually works quite well.

The anonymous commenter said: