In fact, Angelo Tsakopoulos did not come forward with a proposal for a stem cell research facility. What he is proposing is to develop 2,800 acres of prime Yolo County farmland along I-80 between Davis and the Vic Fazio wildlife area, just east of El Macero, into thousands of houses and commercial buildings. He has apparently been in negotiations with local leaders for some time on this, wining and dining them in back room private dinners at the Sutter Club. Has Yolo County surrendered to the high powered (and fancy dinner) politics of Sacramento?
Typically, he is offering a carrot in this deal, and that is a stem cell research facility on part of the property, and it looks like some of our supervisors are going for it. Thursday’s Sacramento Bee and Enterprise quoted three of our supervisors on the issue. Mariko Yamada, in whose district this parcel lies, appears open to this proposal! She is as quoted as saying, “We are in the 21st century, and we need to keep an open mind about how we are going to approach land use and the I-80 corridor from the Bay Area to Sacramento.” She goes on to refer to this as the “innovation corridor” and the importance of Yolo County being in the conversation when it comes to developing it.
Supervisor Mike McGowan also appears more than open to the proposal, but given his record on growth, this is no surprise. Apparently the only supervisors who want to protect this valuable agricultural land and wildlife habitat are Duane Chamberlain and Matt Rexroad. Matt is quoted in the Bee as saying, “The place where the Tsakopoulos family owns land is pretty good farmland….Would it be great to have a research center like this in Yolo County? Yes. Does it have to be located on that parcel? No.”
If Tsakopoulos and Yamada want to consider a research center, there are far better places for it than in the middle of farmland. The U.C. campus is one such location, for example. We would be 100% in support of such a proposal. But this is not about a stem cell research center. This is about thousands of homes and acres of commercial development on prime farmland, in a flood plain, next to a sensitive wildlife area. This is exactly the type of sprawl we do not support.
What happened to the process? So much for considerations of the SACOG Blueprint Process and preservation of habitat, open space and farmland. We have been told repeatedly that Yolo County’s new General Plan is a planning-based, not a specific-project-based plan. That does not appear to be the case here. This is poor planning at its worst. Why is Mariko supporting it? The answer will most likely come at the end of July when she reports her financing for the assembly race.
This is not the first time Davis’s own two supervisors have talked about changing direction and pushing for development in the county. Earlier this year they proposed to look into joint study areas on the periphery of Davis as possible locations for future development. This is in total violation of our pass- through agreement with the county. The agreement assures that cities retain the sole right to determine growth on their borders in exchange for passing through redevelopment funds to the county. In Davis’s case, this is more than $2 million.
Both El Dorado and Sacramento County turned down Tsakopoulos’ proposals for massive developments in their jurisdictions—carrots and all. Yolo County needs to see this for what it is: another attempt to pave over hundreds of acres of farmland and open space in exchange for a sea of houses and commercial buildings for a huge profit to the developer and a huge loss to the county and its residents.
Mariko says she is just keeping an “open mind”, studying the facts, and seeking input from all sides before making a decision. That is double-talk. There is no need to study this. Some proposals should be dead on arrival and this is one of them.
Contact Davis Supervisors Mariko Yamada and Helen Thomson and tell them we do not want this massive development on our borders. We want the county to honor our pass-through agreement, and leave planning decisions for development on our borders to our community.
Mariko Yamada. Phone: 757-5554 or 666-8624; email
Helen Thomson. Phone: 757-5557; email
Pam Nieberg and Holly Bishop
Pam Nieberg and Holly Bishop are Co-chairs of the Sierra Club Yolano Group.
Go Mariko
Go Mariko
Go Mariko
Go Mariko
is this an official statement from the local yolano sierra club chapter?
if not, the two co-authors shouldn’t be listed as Sierra Club co-chairs.
They DO NOT represent this Sierra Club member, nor many other local Sierra Club members.
is this an official statement from the local yolano sierra club chapter?
if not, the two co-authors shouldn’t be listed as Sierra Club co-chairs.
They DO NOT represent this Sierra Club member, nor many other local Sierra Club members.
is this an official statement from the local yolano sierra club chapter?
if not, the two co-authors shouldn’t be listed as Sierra Club co-chairs.
They DO NOT represent this Sierra Club member, nor many other local Sierra Club members.
is this an official statement from the local yolano sierra club chapter?
if not, the two co-authors shouldn’t be listed as Sierra Club co-chairs.
They DO NOT represent this Sierra Club member, nor many other local Sierra Club members.
Come on anonymous 3:27, the end of the article identifies the writers just as if the article was written by a professor from the university, in which case it would read “Joe Blow is a professor of neuroscience at UC Davis”
In fact, the Mariko posting identifies her as a member of the Board of Supervisors, but I can assure you that it does not represent the views of all the supervisors!
Come on anonymous 3:27, the end of the article identifies the writers just as if the article was written by a professor from the university, in which case it would read “Joe Blow is a professor of neuroscience at UC Davis”
In fact, the Mariko posting identifies her as a member of the Board of Supervisors, but I can assure you that it does not represent the views of all the supervisors!
Come on anonymous 3:27, the end of the article identifies the writers just as if the article was written by a professor from the university, in which case it would read “Joe Blow is a professor of neuroscience at UC Davis”
In fact, the Mariko posting identifies her as a member of the Board of Supervisors, but I can assure you that it does not represent the views of all the supervisors!
Come on anonymous 3:27, the end of the article identifies the writers just as if the article was written by a professor from the university, in which case it would read “Joe Blow is a professor of neuroscience at UC Davis”
In fact, the Mariko posting identifies her as a member of the Board of Supervisors, but I can assure you that it does not represent the views of all the supervisors!
The uncomfortable irony in citing the SACOG Blueprint is that, while this project idea does violate nearly all of the SACOG Smart Growth Principles, it is an area identified for development in the Blueprint’s Preferred Alternative. That doesn’t make it a good project, but it does mean that you should be careful what you cite to support your case.
It should also be understood that the Blueprint Preferred Alternative compares regional buildout to 2050 and doesn’t necessarily endorse development identified in the Preferred Scenario.
The uncomfortable irony in citing the SACOG Blueprint is that, while this project idea does violate nearly all of the SACOG Smart Growth Principles, it is an area identified for development in the Blueprint’s Preferred Alternative. That doesn’t make it a good project, but it does mean that you should be careful what you cite to support your case.
It should also be understood that the Blueprint Preferred Alternative compares regional buildout to 2050 and doesn’t necessarily endorse development identified in the Preferred Scenario.
The uncomfortable irony in citing the SACOG Blueprint is that, while this project idea does violate nearly all of the SACOG Smart Growth Principles, it is an area identified for development in the Blueprint’s Preferred Alternative. That doesn’t make it a good project, but it does mean that you should be careful what you cite to support your case.
It should also be understood that the Blueprint Preferred Alternative compares regional buildout to 2050 and doesn’t necessarily endorse development identified in the Preferred Scenario.
The uncomfortable irony in citing the SACOG Blueprint is that, while this project idea does violate nearly all of the SACOG Smart Growth Principles, it is an area identified for development in the Blueprint’s Preferred Alternative. That doesn’t make it a good project, but it does mean that you should be careful what you cite to support your case.
It should also be understood that the Blueprint Preferred Alternative compares regional buildout to 2050 and doesn’t necessarily endorse development identified in the Preferred Scenario.
Be fair, the supervisors don’t know what they’re doing… someone held an enormous check over their eyes…
Be fair, the supervisors don’t know what they’re doing… someone held an enormous check over their eyes…
Be fair, the supervisors don’t know what they’re doing… someone held an enormous check over their eyes…
Be fair, the supervisors don’t know what they’re doing… someone held an enormous check over their eyes…
Er, Mariko, there is a site for stem cell research in Yolo County. It’s called “UC Davis.” You may have heard of it.
There’s also a lot of vacant/underused property along second street that could be used for a stem cell research center. The university already rents office and lab space in that neighborhood.
Er, Mariko, there is a site for stem cell research in Yolo County. It’s called “UC Davis.” You may have heard of it.
There’s also a lot of vacant/underused property along second street that could be used for a stem cell research center. The university already rents office and lab space in that neighborhood.
Er, Mariko, there is a site for stem cell research in Yolo County. It’s called “UC Davis.” You may have heard of it.
There’s also a lot of vacant/underused property along second street that could be used for a stem cell research center. The university already rents office and lab space in that neighborhood.
Er, Mariko, there is a site for stem cell research in Yolo County. It’s called “UC Davis.” You may have heard of it.
There’s also a lot of vacant/underused property along second street that could be used for a stem cell research center. The university already rents office and lab space in that neighborhood.
Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others). At least it would be infill and closer to downtown Davis than half of the rest of Davis. Say hell-o to some real Smart Growth. None of the other peripheral projects that Mariko is “open minded about” are anywhere near as “Smart” as using the CV site. (FYI – Holly Bishop was a spokesperson IN FAVOR OF WILDHORSE. So add that to your hypocrisy blender and whirrrrrr!)
Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others). At least it would be infill and closer to downtown Davis than half of the rest of Davis. Say hell-o to some real Smart Growth. None of the other peripheral projects that Mariko is “open minded about” are anywhere near as “Smart” as using the CV site. (FYI – Holly Bishop was a spokesperson IN FAVOR OF WILDHORSE. So add that to your hypocrisy blender and whirrrrrr!)
Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others). At least it would be infill and closer to downtown Davis than half of the rest of Davis. Say hell-o to some real Smart Growth. None of the other peripheral projects that Mariko is “open minded about” are anywhere near as “Smart” as using the CV site. (FYI – Holly Bishop was a spokesperson IN FAVOR OF WILDHORSE. So add that to your hypocrisy blender and whirrrrrr!)
Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others). At least it would be infill and closer to downtown Davis than half of the rest of Davis. Say hell-o to some real Smart Growth. None of the other peripheral projects that Mariko is “open minded about” are anywhere near as “Smart” as using the CV site. (FYI – Holly Bishop was a spokesperson IN FAVOR OF WILDHORSE. So add that to your hypocrisy blender and whirrrrrr!)
For those of you who want to rely on the pass thru agreement with the county, understand that nothing last forever. The county cannot possibly stand by and watch Davis no growth “progressives” kill every peripheral developement alternative in exchange for a measly $2MM. It is inevitable that population in yolo county and Davis will grow – SACOG says so. The only question is will Davis participate in planning and benefitting from the growth, or will 20 years from now we simply look back and wonder what might have been.
I love the comment from anonymous 3:58 suggesting that the vacant land on second street could be used. That, in fact, might be a great idea, but I bet most of the readers of this “progressive” blog were opposed to even Target much less something as intensive as a stem cell center.
Progressive is an inappropriate name for the group opposing development….Smart development is progressive, no growth is lunacy.
For those of you who want to rely on the pass thru agreement with the county, understand that nothing last forever. The county cannot possibly stand by and watch Davis no growth “progressives” kill every peripheral developement alternative in exchange for a measly $2MM. It is inevitable that population in yolo county and Davis will grow – SACOG says so. The only question is will Davis participate in planning and benefitting from the growth, or will 20 years from now we simply look back and wonder what might have been.
I love the comment from anonymous 3:58 suggesting that the vacant land on second street could be used. That, in fact, might be a great idea, but I bet most of the readers of this “progressive” blog were opposed to even Target much less something as intensive as a stem cell center.
Progressive is an inappropriate name for the group opposing development….Smart development is progressive, no growth is lunacy.
For those of you who want to rely on the pass thru agreement with the county, understand that nothing last forever. The county cannot possibly stand by and watch Davis no growth “progressives” kill every peripheral developement alternative in exchange for a measly $2MM. It is inevitable that population in yolo county and Davis will grow – SACOG says so. The only question is will Davis participate in planning and benefitting from the growth, or will 20 years from now we simply look back and wonder what might have been.
I love the comment from anonymous 3:58 suggesting that the vacant land on second street could be used. That, in fact, might be a great idea, but I bet most of the readers of this “progressive” blog were opposed to even Target much less something as intensive as a stem cell center.
Progressive is an inappropriate name for the group opposing development….Smart development is progressive, no growth is lunacy.
For those of you who want to rely on the pass thru agreement with the county, understand that nothing last forever. The county cannot possibly stand by and watch Davis no growth “progressives” kill every peripheral developement alternative in exchange for a measly $2MM. It is inevitable that population in yolo county and Davis will grow – SACOG says so. The only question is will Davis participate in planning and benefitting from the growth, or will 20 years from now we simply look back and wonder what might have been.
I love the comment from anonymous 3:58 suggesting that the vacant land on second street could be used. That, in fact, might be a great idea, but I bet most of the readers of this “progressive” blog were opposed to even Target much less something as intensive as a stem cell center.
Progressive is an inappropriate name for the group opposing development….Smart development is progressive, no growth is lunacy.
re: red herring’s comment:
I think a position at a volunteer organization known for its liberal leanings is quite different from a elected position on the BOS. However, as an advocate of smart, realistic growth alternatives, I am happy to see the author’s relationship with Sierra Club, as it impugns their credibilty regarding any honest discussion regarding growth alternatives.
re: red herring’s comment:
I think a position at a volunteer organization known for its liberal leanings is quite different from a elected position on the BOS. However, as an advocate of smart, realistic growth alternatives, I am happy to see the author’s relationship with Sierra Club, as it impugns their credibilty regarding any honest discussion regarding growth alternatives.
re: red herring’s comment:
I think a position at a volunteer organization known for its liberal leanings is quite different from a elected position on the BOS. However, as an advocate of smart, realistic growth alternatives, I am happy to see the author’s relationship with Sierra Club, as it impugns their credibilty regarding any honest discussion regarding growth alternatives.
re: red herring’s comment:
I think a position at a volunteer organization known for its liberal leanings is quite different from a elected position on the BOS. However, as an advocate of smart, realistic growth alternatives, I am happy to see the author’s relationship with Sierra Club, as it impugns their credibilty regarding any honest discussion regarding growth alternatives.
“Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others).”
Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.
There would be some questions with the city of Davis, if they needed sewage hook-ups and so on. However, Davis could not stop them from building a research park there, as it is county land. It would not require any kind of Measure J vote.
The CV owners could not, however, build any housing on that site. But it’s quite likely that if they chose to build a dense research park, the impacts on the city of Davis — traffic, infrastructure, etc. — would be far greater than what the Covell Village housing proposal would have been, all without any of the side benefits that the Covell Village project promised; and also without any public access to the land or creation of habitat space or parks or greenbelts. In other words, as things now stand, it could be a giant concrete village there, and there’s nothing we can do about it.
“Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others).”
Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.
There would be some questions with the city of Davis, if they needed sewage hook-ups and so on. However, Davis could not stop them from building a research park there, as it is county land. It would not require any kind of Measure J vote.
The CV owners could not, however, build any housing on that site. But it’s quite likely that if they chose to build a dense research park, the impacts on the city of Davis — traffic, infrastructure, etc. — would be far greater than what the Covell Village housing proposal would have been, all without any of the side benefits that the Covell Village project promised; and also without any public access to the land or creation of habitat space or parks or greenbelts. In other words, as things now stand, it could be a giant concrete village there, and there’s nothing we can do about it.
“Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others).”
Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.
There would be some questions with the city of Davis, if they needed sewage hook-ups and so on. However, Davis could not stop them from building a research park there, as it is county land. It would not require any kind of Measure J vote.
The CV owners could not, however, build any housing on that site. But it’s quite likely that if they chose to build a dense research park, the impacts on the city of Davis — traffic, infrastructure, etc. — would be far greater than what the Covell Village housing proposal would have been, all without any of the side benefits that the Covell Village project promised; and also without any public access to the land or creation of habitat space or parks or greenbelts. In other words, as things now stand, it could be a giant concrete village there, and there’s nothing we can do about it.
“Maybe Tsokopolous should buy the Covell Village site and build the Research Center there, along with some higher density housing, including moderate and upscale (for the researchers) and affordable (for staff and others).”
Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.
There would be some questions with the city of Davis, if they needed sewage hook-ups and so on. However, Davis could not stop them from building a research park there, as it is county land. It would not require any kind of Measure J vote.
The CV owners could not, however, build any housing on that site. But it’s quite likely that if they chose to build a dense research park, the impacts on the city of Davis — traffic, infrastructure, etc. — would be far greater than what the Covell Village housing proposal would have been, all without any of the side benefits that the Covell Village project promised; and also without any public access to the land or creation of habitat space or parks or greenbelts. In other words, as things now stand, it could be a giant concrete village there, and there’s nothing we can do about it.
“Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.”
Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.
“Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.”
Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.
“Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.”
Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.
“Just so you understand the current state of the law: the owners of the Covell Village site can build a research park (or any light industrial development) on their land, without too much trouble, right now. That CV land is not zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for light industrial. As such, the Board of Supervisors would not vote on any proposal for the land.”
Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.
Two points of clarification:
1)The city can withhold about $72 million of redevelopment agency tax dollars if the county rezones or redesignates this land from agricultural to urban.
2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by county.
Two points of clarification:
1)The city can withhold about $72 million of redevelopment agency tax dollars if the county rezones or redesignates this land from agricultural to urban.
2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by county.
Two points of clarification:
1)The city can withhold about $72 million of redevelopment agency tax dollars if the county rezones or redesignates this land from agricultural to urban.
2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by county.
Two points of clarification:
1)The city can withhold about $72 million of redevelopment agency tax dollars if the county rezones or redesignates this land from agricultural to urban.
2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by county.
Now that I see that I have remembered how to sign in, I’ll expand upon my first point.
The city of Davis currently passes through over $2 million A YEAR to the county. This will go up to about $4 million a year. It is estimated that the total will be about $72 million over the remaining years of the redevelopment agency.
If the county rezones or redesignates land within the Davis planning area as defined by the pass-through agreement, which includes the land adjacent to Northwest Davis , the Covell Village land, the land along I-80 and the Tsokopolous land between Davis and the Yolo by-pass, the city of Davis redevelopment agency can retain the $72 million dollars that we have agreed to pass through to the county.
Now that I see that I have remembered how to sign in, I’ll expand upon my first point.
The city of Davis currently passes through over $2 million A YEAR to the county. This will go up to about $4 million a year. It is estimated that the total will be about $72 million over the remaining years of the redevelopment agency.
If the county rezones or redesignates land within the Davis planning area as defined by the pass-through agreement, which includes the land adjacent to Northwest Davis , the Covell Village land, the land along I-80 and the Tsokopolous land between Davis and the Yolo by-pass, the city of Davis redevelopment agency can retain the $72 million dollars that we have agreed to pass through to the county.
Now that I see that I have remembered how to sign in, I’ll expand upon my first point.
The city of Davis currently passes through over $2 million A YEAR to the county. This will go up to about $4 million a year. It is estimated that the total will be about $72 million over the remaining years of the redevelopment agency.
If the county rezones or redesignates land within the Davis planning area as defined by the pass-through agreement, which includes the land adjacent to Northwest Davis , the Covell Village land, the land along I-80 and the Tsokopolous land between Davis and the Yolo by-pass, the city of Davis redevelopment agency can retain the $72 million dollars that we have agreed to pass through to the county.
Now that I see that I have remembered how to sign in, I’ll expand upon my first point.
The city of Davis currently passes through over $2 million A YEAR to the county. This will go up to about $4 million a year. It is estimated that the total will be about $72 million over the remaining years of the redevelopment agency.
If the county rezones or redesignates land within the Davis planning area as defined by the pass-through agreement, which includes the land adjacent to Northwest Davis , the Covell Village land, the land along I-80 and the Tsokopolous land between Davis and the Yolo by-pass, the city of Davis redevelopment agency can retain the $72 million dollars that we have agreed to pass through to the county.
The Yolano Sierra Club are against it NOW. However, I watched them have local two meetings where they supported the Woodland Urban Limit Line proposal and then later flip.
Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing. This is just a letter from two individuals.
You never know. They could come out in favor of this in just a few weeks.
The Yolano Sierra Club are against it NOW. However, I watched them have local two meetings where they supported the Woodland Urban Limit Line proposal and then later flip.
Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing. This is just a letter from two individuals.
You never know. They could come out in favor of this in just a few weeks.
The Yolano Sierra Club are against it NOW. However, I watched them have local two meetings where they supported the Woodland Urban Limit Line proposal and then later flip.
Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing. This is just a letter from two individuals.
You never know. They could come out in favor of this in just a few weeks.
The Yolano Sierra Club are against it NOW. However, I watched them have local two meetings where they supported the Woodland Urban Limit Line proposal and then later flip.
Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing. This is just a letter from two individuals.
You never know. They could come out in favor of this in just a few weeks.
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
“…Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing”
The Local Sierra Club’s opposition to Covell Village was pivotal to the decision of the regional and state level Sierra Club officials declaring their opposition to this development. Rexroad’s above statement is refuted by recent history.
“…Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing”
The Local Sierra Club’s opposition to Covell Village was pivotal to the decision of the regional and state level Sierra Club officials declaring their opposition to this development. Rexroad’s above statement is refuted by recent history.
“…Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing”
The Local Sierra Club’s opposition to Covell Village was pivotal to the decision of the regional and state level Sierra Club officials declaring their opposition to this development. Rexroad’s above statement is refuted by recent history.
“…Unless they get approval from the folks above — their opposition to this effort means nothing”
The Local Sierra Club’s opposition to Covell Village was pivotal to the decision of the regional and state level Sierra Club officials declaring their opposition to this development. Rexroad’s above statement is refuted by recent history.
“Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.”
Yes, I am speaking of the Covell Village property, which is in the county. The cannery property is entirely within city limits.
Despite the fact that there is farming on much of the CV land, it is NOT zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for industry. Apparently, that zoning designation does not prohibit farming. But it surely does not limit it to ag uses.
Sue writes: “2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by the county.”
Unless the city annexes the Covell Village property — which is not going to happen — its “designation” is not relevant. The relevant zoning is the county’s. And as Sue says, that would currently permit a light industrial/research park, which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.
In that the owners of the Covell Village land have not proposed anything like a research park for their site since being defeated at the polls two years ago, it seems likely to me that they are still holding out hope to put housing on their property. Having lost 60-40, a new proposal will have to be quite different.
“Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.”
Yes, I am speaking of the Covell Village property, which is in the county. The cannery property is entirely within city limits.
Despite the fact that there is farming on much of the CV land, it is NOT zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for industry. Apparently, that zoning designation does not prohibit farming. But it surely does not limit it to ag uses.
Sue writes: “2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by the county.”
Unless the city annexes the Covell Village property — which is not going to happen — its “designation” is not relevant. The relevant zoning is the county’s. And as Sue says, that would currently permit a light industrial/research park, which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.
In that the owners of the Covell Village land have not proposed anything like a research park for their site since being defeated at the polls two years ago, it seems likely to me that they are still holding out hope to put housing on their property. Having lost 60-40, a new proposal will have to be quite different.
“Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.”
Yes, I am speaking of the Covell Village property, which is in the county. The cannery property is entirely within city limits.
Despite the fact that there is farming on much of the CV land, it is NOT zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for industry. Apparently, that zoning designation does not prohibit farming. But it surely does not limit it to ag uses.
Sue writes: “2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by the county.”
Unless the city annexes the Covell Village property — which is not going to happen — its “designation” is not relevant. The relevant zoning is the county’s. And as Sue says, that would currently permit a light industrial/research park, which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.
In that the owners of the Covell Village land have not proposed anything like a research park for their site since being defeated at the polls two years ago, it seems likely to me that they are still holding out hope to put housing on their property. Having lost 60-40, a new proposal will have to be quite different.
“Are you sure you are not thinking of Hunt-Wesson, because the CV land has agriculture on it right now.”
Yes, I am speaking of the Covell Village property, which is in the county. The cannery property is entirely within city limits.
Despite the fact that there is farming on much of the CV land, it is NOT zoned for agriculture. It is zoned for industry. Apparently, that zoning designation does not prohibit farming. But it surely does not limit it to ag uses.
Sue writes: “2)The Covell Village land is designated agricultural by the city, but non-nuisance, residential compatible, research/light industrial park by the county.”
Unless the city annexes the Covell Village property — which is not going to happen — its “designation” is not relevant. The relevant zoning is the county’s. And as Sue says, that would currently permit a light industrial/research park, which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.
In that the owners of the Covell Village land have not proposed anything like a research park for their site since being defeated at the polls two years ago, it seems likely to me that they are still holding out hope to put housing on their property. Having lost 60-40, a new proposal will have to be quite different.
“…more impactful”
from the Lexicon Artist?
“…more impactful”
from the Lexicon Artist?
“…more impactful”
from the Lexicon Artist?
“…more impactful”
from the Lexicon Artist?
“… which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
Point well taken. This is better:
“… which could have more impact on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
“… which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
Point well taken. This is better:
“… which could have more impact on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
“… which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
Point well taken. This is better:
“… which could have more impact on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
“… which very well could be many times more impactful on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
Point well taken. This is better:
“… which could have more impact on the City of Davis than the Covell Village housing/retail/open space plan would have.”
I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.
I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.
I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.
I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.
davisite said:
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
Yes, of course the county would be responsible for these type of costs, but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development and both jurisdictions would require that a developer “pay its freight”. The relevant discussion is about what davis pays the county in exchange for having control over peripheral development. The county will necessarily evaluate how much revenue it can “make” by granting development rights vs the revenue it receives from Davis.
davisite said:
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
Yes, of course the county would be responsible for these type of costs, but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development and both jurisdictions would require that a developer “pay its freight”. The relevant discussion is about what davis pays the county in exchange for having control over peripheral development. The county will necessarily evaluate how much revenue it can “make” by granting development rights vs the revenue it receives from Davis.
davisite said:
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
Yes, of course the county would be responsible for these type of costs, but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development and both jurisdictions would require that a developer “pay its freight”. The relevant discussion is about what davis pays the county in exchange for having control over peripheral development. The county will necessarily evaluate how much revenue it can “make” by granting development rights vs the revenue it receives from Davis.
davisite said:
In addition to losing the 72 million from Davis if the County withdraws from the Pass-Through agreement, the County would have to provide water, sewer, wastewater treatment, all services to the development. There is also legal precedent that suggests that the County could be made to pay the City of Davis for the impacts to the city’s infrastructure(roads) and increased service needs(Davis Police).
Yes, of course the county would be responsible for these type of costs, but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development and both jurisdictions would require that a developer “pay its freight”. The relevant discussion is about what davis pays the county in exchange for having control over peripheral development. The county will necessarily evaluate how much revenue it can “make” by granting development rights vs the revenue it receives from Davis.
Sharla wrote:
“I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.”
If only some of these windy narsissitic fellows who like the look of their “impactful” words so much in print would simply write how they actually orally converse in their probably boring daily lives, then there wouldn’t need to be “grammar discussions.”
–Brian Kenyon
Sharla wrote:
“I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.”
If only some of these windy narsissitic fellows who like the look of their “impactful” words so much in print would simply write how they actually orally converse in their probably boring daily lives, then there wouldn’t need to be “grammar discussions.”
–Brian Kenyon
Sharla wrote:
“I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.”
If only some of these windy narsissitic fellows who like the look of their “impactful” words so much in print would simply write how they actually orally converse in their probably boring daily lives, then there wouldn’t need to be “grammar discussions.”
–Brian Kenyon
Sharla wrote:
“I hate these grammar discussions. They are such an interruption in the flow of conversation.”
If only some of these windy narsissitic fellows who like the look of their “impactful” words so much in print would simply write how they actually orally converse in their probably boring daily lives, then there wouldn’t need to be “grammar discussions.”
–Brian Kenyon
“narsissitic”
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.
“narsissitic”
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.
“narsissitic”
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.
“narsissitic”
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.
So is Mariko for or against sprawl growth? I’m confused. On her guest commentary she says she has consistently voted against growth, yet these past few months she has made a 180 on her stances. This includes this issue, the Dunnigan vote, and the commission of studies to grow outside of Davis. Could this be for campaign cash for the Assembly run, or has she really changed tunes to be pro-development?
So is Mariko for or against sprawl growth? I’m confused. On her guest commentary she says she has consistently voted against growth, yet these past few months she has made a 180 on her stances. This includes this issue, the Dunnigan vote, and the commission of studies to grow outside of Davis. Could this be for campaign cash for the Assembly run, or has she really changed tunes to be pro-development?
So is Mariko for or against sprawl growth? I’m confused. On her guest commentary she says she has consistently voted against growth, yet these past few months she has made a 180 on her stances. This includes this issue, the Dunnigan vote, and the commission of studies to grow outside of Davis. Could this be for campaign cash for the Assembly run, or has she really changed tunes to be pro-development?
So is Mariko for or against sprawl growth? I’m confused. On her guest commentary she says she has consistently voted against growth, yet these past few months she has made a 180 on her stances. This includes this issue, the Dunnigan vote, and the commission of studies to grow outside of Davis. Could this be for campaign cash for the Assembly run, or has she really changed tunes to be pro-development?
Don Shor said…
“‘narsissitic’
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.”
Looks like you prove Sharla’s point.
Don Shor said…
“‘narsissitic’
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.”
Looks like you prove Sharla’s point.
Don Shor said…
“‘narsissitic’
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.”
Looks like you prove Sharla’s point.
Don Shor said…
“‘narsissitic’
At the risk of appearing narcissistic, I’ll suggest that if you are going to use the word in every post you might wish to learn how to spell it.”
Looks like you prove Sharla’s point.
People, please stay on topic or we’ll be force to start deleting posts.
People, please stay on topic or we’ll be force to start deleting posts.
People, please stay on topic or we’ll be force to start deleting posts.
People, please stay on topic or we’ll be force to start deleting posts.
“If Tsakopoulos and Yamada want to consider a research center, there are far better places for it than in the middle of farmland.”
Would this project be erected in the general vicinity of the Fruit Stand by the Chiles Road I-80 ramp? If so, then it would only be a matter of a few yards from the levee-shore of the vast inland lake which the Yolo Bypass becomes in winter. Are those levees 100-year-flood-proof?
“If Tsakopoulos and Yamada want to consider a research center, there are far better places for it than in the middle of farmland.”
Would this project be erected in the general vicinity of the Fruit Stand by the Chiles Road I-80 ramp? If so, then it would only be a matter of a few yards from the levee-shore of the vast inland lake which the Yolo Bypass becomes in winter. Are those levees 100-year-flood-proof?
“If Tsakopoulos and Yamada want to consider a research center, there are far better places for it than in the middle of farmland.”
Would this project be erected in the general vicinity of the Fruit Stand by the Chiles Road I-80 ramp? If so, then it would only be a matter of a few yards from the levee-shore of the vast inland lake which the Yolo Bypass becomes in winter. Are those levees 100-year-flood-proof?
“If Tsakopoulos and Yamada want to consider a research center, there are far better places for it than in the middle of farmland.”
Would this project be erected in the general vicinity of the Fruit Stand by the Chiles Road I-80 ramp? If so, then it would only be a matter of a few yards from the levee-shore of the vast inland lake which the Yolo Bypass becomes in winter. Are those levees 100-year-flood-proof?
“… but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development”
Is this really true?… hooking up water and sewer lines to Davis as opposed to building the entire infrastructure to hook up to a County water and wastewater facility(does one even exist?) as well as police/fire service? Since Development class 101 teaches that residential development ALWAYS leaves a city’s coffers in the red, I imagine that it applies also to the County.
“… but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development”
Is this really true?… hooking up water and sewer lines to Davis as opposed to building the entire infrastructure to hook up to a County water and wastewater facility(does one even exist?) as well as police/fire service? Since Development class 101 teaches that residential development ALWAYS leaves a city’s coffers in the red, I imagine that it applies also to the County.
“… but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development”
Is this really true?… hooking up water and sewer lines to Davis as opposed to building the entire infrastructure to hook up to a County water and wastewater facility(does one even exist?) as well as police/fire service? Since Development class 101 teaches that residential development ALWAYS leaves a city’s coffers in the red, I imagine that it applies also to the County.
“… but these costs would be similar to what Davis would incur if it allowed the development”
Is this really true?… hooking up water and sewer lines to Davis as opposed to building the entire infrastructure to hook up to a County water and wastewater facility(does one even exist?) as well as police/fire service? Since Development class 101 teaches that residential development ALWAYS leaves a city’s coffers in the red, I imagine that it applies also to the County.
Another issue- if Tsakopolos (sp?) develops the land immediatetly east of Davis (where Cowell Blvd ends), there would likely be a push by the developer to extend Cowell further east into the new development. This would create a significant policing problem. As a resident of the area, I see the police regularly end car chases in our dead ends at the southeast limit of Davis. If Cowell were extended east and connected to the Chiles/Frontage rd. I-80 access (near the fruit stand), these residential streets near Pioneer school would become freeways for fleeing felons and alternate traffic routes for folks commuting to Sac in the a.m. – right through a school crosswalk. Not good planning. Your neighbors down under the I-80 are not fans of this proposal.
Another issue- if Tsakopolos (sp?) develops the land immediatetly east of Davis (where Cowell Blvd ends), there would likely be a push by the developer to extend Cowell further east into the new development. This would create a significant policing problem. As a resident of the area, I see the police regularly end car chases in our dead ends at the southeast limit of Davis. If Cowell were extended east and connected to the Chiles/Frontage rd. I-80 access (near the fruit stand), these residential streets near Pioneer school would become freeways for fleeing felons and alternate traffic routes for folks commuting to Sac in the a.m. – right through a school crosswalk. Not good planning. Your neighbors down under the I-80 are not fans of this proposal.
Another issue- if Tsakopolos (sp?) develops the land immediatetly east of Davis (where Cowell Blvd ends), there would likely be a push by the developer to extend Cowell further east into the new development. This would create a significant policing problem. As a resident of the area, I see the police regularly end car chases in our dead ends at the southeast limit of Davis. If Cowell were extended east and connected to the Chiles/Frontage rd. I-80 access (near the fruit stand), these residential streets near Pioneer school would become freeways for fleeing felons and alternate traffic routes for folks commuting to Sac in the a.m. – right through a school crosswalk. Not good planning. Your neighbors down under the I-80 are not fans of this proposal.
Another issue- if Tsakopolos (sp?) develops the land immediatetly east of Davis (where Cowell Blvd ends), there would likely be a push by the developer to extend Cowell further east into the new development. This would create a significant policing problem. As a resident of the area, I see the police regularly end car chases in our dead ends at the southeast limit of Davis. If Cowell were extended east and connected to the Chiles/Frontage rd. I-80 access (near the fruit stand), these residential streets near Pioneer school would become freeways for fleeing felons and alternate traffic routes for folks commuting to Sac in the a.m. – right through a school crosswalk. Not good planning. Your neighbors down under the I-80 are not fans of this proposal.
Ditto up here. Kids who cross Mace and Second to go to Harper from South Davis will encounter 10,000 car trips of traffic when the Target is built. Not smart planning as a majority of South Davis voted for Measure K. We all have to deal with something. As the song says, “You can’t always get what you want.”
Ditto up here. Kids who cross Mace and Second to go to Harper from South Davis will encounter 10,000 car trips of traffic when the Target is built. Not smart planning as a majority of South Davis voted for Measure K. We all have to deal with something. As the song says, “You can’t always get what you want.”
Ditto up here. Kids who cross Mace and Second to go to Harper from South Davis will encounter 10,000 car trips of traffic when the Target is built. Not smart planning as a majority of South Davis voted for Measure K. We all have to deal with something. As the song says, “You can’t always get what you want.”
Ditto up here. Kids who cross Mace and Second to go to Harper from South Davis will encounter 10,000 car trips of traffic when the Target is built. Not smart planning as a majority of South Davis voted for Measure K. We all have to deal with something. As the song says, “You can’t always get what you want.”
Reality (Realty) check:
Looking Ahead
I will be so bold to say that I called the housing crash correctly last year, though the worst symptoms are slow to present for technical reasons. There’s no question that the action on the real estate scene changed drastically in mid-year. The implosion of this mighty structure of fraud, folly, and misinvestment so far has taken place in such breathtaking slow-motion that its victims have not really felt the pain from the falling bricks yet. By late summer, buyers started evaporating. Real estate signs planted in lawns last June are still sitting there on New Years. Prices have come down a bit in many markets, including most of the hotties such as Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Boston. But the buyers are still not bidding. Meanwhile, the sellers have dug in, determined to get something at least close to their wished-for inflated prices, egged on by their representatives, the realtors. This mutually reinforcing psychology cannot hold indefinitely. Many of these sellers don’t have the luxury to wait around forever. Some have had to move to other houses in other places because of job changes, and are stuck paying two mortgages. Many are stuck with “creative” mortgages that all the evil ingenuity of the human mind conjured in recent years to enable the feckless to live above their means — adjustable rate, payment optional, no money down contracts that suckered buyers into booby-trapped obligations whose initial low-interest terms lured them in and are now set to blow up in their faces as terms automatically re-set upwards to higher rates and “optional” deferred payments get backloaded onto the principal, putting the mortgage holders so far underwater on their contracts that a tour of the Titanic would feel like a day at the beach.
The trouble is, when both the sellers and their agents decide to get with the reality program and lower their prices, they will only stimulate a massive death spiral of house price deflation as buyers see the numbers go lower and hold out longer in the expectation that prices will go down even further. That would, of course, put more sellers into gross distress and lead them either to dump their properties or enter the cold waters of default and foreclosure. The whole process could run for a couple of decades, and as that occurs it will be made much much worse by oil depletion — as so many suburban houses drastically lose locational value, combined with the consequences of poor construction carried out in cheap materials like vinyl and chipboard.
Add to this that the late stages of the hyper-boom caused so much “product” to be brought onto the market by the “production home builders” that there now exists an unprecedented oversupply of exactly the kind of crappy suburban houses (in all price ranges) that are bound to lose value going just a little bit forward. Foreclosures will only add more to the oversupply. In the subprime mortgage niche, defaults are officially reported to be running at 20 percent. Foreclosures are trailing because the process is so awkward, and many have not yet shown up in the housing markets. I predict that foreclosures on subprime mortgages will run above the 50 percent range when all is said and done.
…etc.
—James Howard Kunstler
http://kunstler.com/mags_diary22.html
Reality (Realty) check:
Looking Ahead
I will be so bold to say that I called the housing crash correctly last year, though the worst symptoms are slow to present for technical reasons. There’s no question that the action on the real estate scene changed drastically in mid-year. The implosion of this mighty structure of fraud, folly, and misinvestment so far has taken place in such breathtaking slow-motion that its victims have not really felt the pain from the falling bricks yet. By late summer, buyers started evaporating. Real estate signs planted in lawns last June are still sitting there on New Years. Prices have come down a bit in many markets, including most of the hotties such as Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Boston. But the buyers are still not bidding. Meanwhile, the sellers have dug in, determined to get something at least close to their wished-for inflated prices, egged on by their representatives, the realtors. This mutually reinforcing psychology cannot hold indefinitely. Many of these sellers don’t have the luxury to wait around forever. Some have had to move to other houses in other places because of job changes, and are stuck paying two mortgages. Many are stuck with “creative” mortgages that all the evil ingenuity of the human mind conjured in recent years to enable the feckless to live above their means — adjustable rate, payment optional, no money down contracts that suckered buyers into booby-trapped obligations whose initial low-interest terms lured them in and are now set to blow up in their faces as terms automatically re-set upwards to higher rates and “optional” deferred payments get backloaded onto the principal, putting the mortgage holders so far underwater on their contracts that a tour of the Titanic would feel like a day at the beach.
The trouble is, when both the sellers and their agents decide to get with the reality program and lower their prices, they will only stimulate a massive death spiral of house price deflation as buyers see the numbers go lower and hold out longer in the expectation that prices will go down even further. That would, of course, put more sellers into gross distress and lead them either to dump their properties or enter the cold waters of default and foreclosure. The whole process could run for a couple of decades, and as that occurs it will be made much much worse by oil depletion — as so many suburban houses drastically lose locational value, combined with the consequences of poor construction carried out in cheap materials like vinyl and chipboard.
Add to this that the late stages of the hyper-boom caused so much “product” to be brought onto the market by the “production home builders” that there now exists an unprecedented oversupply of exactly the kind of crappy suburban houses (in all price ranges) that are bound to lose value going just a little bit forward. Foreclosures will only add more to the oversupply. In the subprime mortgage niche, defaults are officially reported to be running at 20 percent. Foreclosures are trailing because the process is so awkward, and many have not yet shown up in the housing markets. I predict that foreclosures on subprime mortgages will run above the 50 percent range when all is said and done.
…etc.
—James Howard Kunstler
http://kunstler.com/mags_diary22.html
Reality (Realty) check:
Looking Ahead
I will be so bold to say that I called the housing crash correctly last year, though the worst symptoms are slow to present for technical reasons. There’s no question that the action on the real estate scene changed drastically in mid-year. The implosion of this mighty structure of fraud, folly, and misinvestment so far has taken place in such breathtaking slow-motion that its victims have not really felt the pain from the falling bricks yet. By late summer, buyers started evaporating. Real estate signs planted in lawns last June are still sitting there on New Years. Prices have come down a bit in many markets, including most of the hotties such as Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Boston. But the buyers are still not bidding. Meanwhile, the sellers have dug in, determined to get something at least close to their wished-for inflated prices, egged on by their representatives, the realtors. This mutually reinforcing psychology cannot hold indefinitely. Many of these sellers don’t have the luxury to wait around forever. Some have had to move to other houses in other places because of job changes, and are stuck paying two mortgages. Many are stuck with “creative” mortgages that all the evil ingenuity of the human mind conjured in recent years to enable the feckless to live above their means — adjustable rate, payment optional, no money down contracts that suckered buyers into booby-trapped obligations whose initial low-interest terms lured them in and are now set to blow up in their faces as terms automatically re-set upwards to higher rates and “optional” deferred payments get backloaded onto the principal, putting the mortgage holders so far underwater on their contracts that a tour of the Titanic would feel like a day at the beach.
The trouble is, when both the sellers and their agents decide to get with the reality program and lower their prices, they will only stimulate a massive death spiral of house price deflation as buyers see the numbers go lower and hold out longer in the expectation that prices will go down even further. That would, of course, put more sellers into gross distress and lead them either to dump their properties or enter the cold waters of default and foreclosure. The whole process could run for a couple of decades, and as that occurs it will be made much much worse by oil depletion — as so many suburban houses drastically lose locational value, combined with the consequences of poor construction carried out in cheap materials like vinyl and chipboard.
Add to this that the late stages of the hyper-boom caused so much “product” to be brought onto the market by the “production home builders” that there now exists an unprecedented oversupply of exactly the kind of crappy suburban houses (in all price ranges) that are bound to lose value going just a little bit forward. Foreclosures will only add more to the oversupply. In the subprime mortgage niche, defaults are officially reported to be running at 20 percent. Foreclosures are trailing because the process is so awkward, and many have not yet shown up in the housing markets. I predict that foreclosures on subprime mortgages will run above the 50 percent range when all is said and done.
…etc.
—James Howard Kunstler
http://kunstler.com/mags_diary22.html
Reality (Realty) check:
Looking Ahead
I will be so bold to say that I called the housing crash correctly last year, though the worst symptoms are slow to present for technical reasons. There’s no question that the action on the real estate scene changed drastically in mid-year. The implosion of this mighty structure of fraud, folly, and misinvestment so far has taken place in such breathtaking slow-motion that its victims have not really felt the pain from the falling bricks yet. By late summer, buyers started evaporating. Real estate signs planted in lawns last June are still sitting there on New Years. Prices have come down a bit in many markets, including most of the hotties such as Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Boston. But the buyers are still not bidding. Meanwhile, the sellers have dug in, determined to get something at least close to their wished-for inflated prices, egged on by their representatives, the realtors. This mutually reinforcing psychology cannot hold indefinitely. Many of these sellers don’t have the luxury to wait around forever. Some have had to move to other houses in other places because of job changes, and are stuck paying two mortgages. Many are stuck with “creative” mortgages that all the evil ingenuity of the human mind conjured in recent years to enable the feckless to live above their means — adjustable rate, payment optional, no money down contracts that suckered buyers into booby-trapped obligations whose initial low-interest terms lured them in and are now set to blow up in their faces as terms automatically re-set upwards to higher rates and “optional” deferred payments get backloaded onto the principal, putting the mortgage holders so far underwater on their contracts that a tour of the Titanic would feel like a day at the beach.
The trouble is, when both the sellers and their agents decide to get with the reality program and lower their prices, they will only stimulate a massive death spiral of house price deflation as buyers see the numbers go lower and hold out longer in the expectation that prices will go down even further. That would, of course, put more sellers into gross distress and lead them either to dump their properties or enter the cold waters of default and foreclosure. The whole process could run for a couple of decades, and as that occurs it will be made much much worse by oil depletion — as so many suburban houses drastically lose locational value, combined with the consequences of poor construction carried out in cheap materials like vinyl and chipboard.
Add to this that the late stages of the hyper-boom caused so much “product” to be brought onto the market by the “production home builders” that there now exists an unprecedented oversupply of exactly the kind of crappy suburban houses (in all price ranges) that are bound to lose value going just a little bit forward. Foreclosures will only add more to the oversupply. In the subprime mortgage niche, defaults are officially reported to be running at 20 percent. Foreclosures are trailing because the process is so awkward, and many have not yet shown up in the housing markets. I predict that foreclosures on subprime mortgages will run above the 50 percent range when all is said and done.
…etc.
—James Howard Kunstler
http://kunstler.com/mags_diary22.html