Preliminary 2024 crime statistics from across California show a decline in both violent and property crime, according to a new analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC).
Drawing on data from the Real Time Crime Index (RTCI), the report suggests that the state may finally be reversing the troubling rise in crime that accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic.
The RTCI data—which includes monthly crime reports from 29 law enforcement agencies serving almost nine million Californians—shows violent crime down 4.6% and property crime down 8.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. This dataset, while preliminary, includes major cities like San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Long Beach, as well as sheriff’s departments in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sonoma Counties. Together, these jurisdictions represent nearly a quarter of the state’s population.
“This year’s analysis points toward a reversal of the recent pandemic-era uptick in violent crimes in California,” the report states. “Violent crime dropped by 4.6% in 2024, compared to 2023, in the RTCI jurisdictions. However, it is still 5.9% higher than in 2019.”
The most significant improvements were in property crime. Burglary and larceny—which includes shoplifting and other forms of theft without the use or threat of force—declined sharply. Compared to 2019, burglary dropped by 13.6% and larceny by 18.6%. Even auto theft, which surged dramatically during the pandemic years, finally showed signs of retreat in 2024 with an 11.9% decrease—the first annual drop since 2020. Still, auto theft remains 23% higher than it was in 2019.
“These decreases are notable, particularly given the sharp increase in auto thefts during the pandemic years,” the authors note. “The biggest decrease was for auto theft, which had jumped notably during the pandemic.”
On the violent crime side, the improvements were smaller but still significant. Aggravated assaults decreased by 3.9%, and robberies dropped by 5.2%. Rape saw one of the most dramatic shifts, falling by 22.6% in 2024. Homicide rates also continued to decline from their pandemic highs, although they remain 5.9% above 2019 levels.
The PPIC analysis emphasizes that these RTCI figures, while encouraging, should be viewed with caution. The data are subject to revision and do not represent a full statewide accounting—California’s official crime statistics, compiled by the Department of Justice, will not be released until summer 2025. However, the RTCI trends appear to closely align with past statewide data.
“This comparison shows quite similar trends over 12-month rolling periods,” the report notes. “While the magnitude of changes in the RTCI data do not match perfectly with the CADOJ changes, swings in trends line up quite well.”
Importantly, the PPIC highlights that the declines seen in California mirror national patterns. Among more than 300 law enforcement agencies across the U.S. that report to the RTCI, violent crime declined by 4.4% and property crime by 8.4%—virtually identical to the California figures.
“California’s decreases in violent and property crimes in 2024 were very similar to those of the more than 300 RTCI law enforcement agencies in other states,” the authors explain.
Even some large California departments not included in the RTCI sample, such as the Los Angeles Police Department and the Fresno Police Department, reported similar reductions in crime, reinforcing the broader trend.
Still, the report also identifies key limitations. Most notably, the data only reflect crimes reported to law enforcement—a known limitation in measuring crime trends.
“Like all crime data, it is important to keep in mind that it is limited to crimes that are reported to law enforcement agencies, and not all crimes get reported,” the report cautions.
Additionally, the RTCI data do not allow for detailed breakdowns of certain high-profile crime categories such as gun violence, shoplifting, or catalytic converter theft—types of offenses that spiked in the wake of the pandemic and have become central to political debates about public safety.
The PPIC frames the Real Time Crime Index as a valuable tool that offers more timely insights than traditional data sources.
“Despite limitations, data efforts like that of the Real Time Crime Index are of great value,” the report concludes, “providing researchers opportunities to monitor crime trends with much shorter data lags and allowing policymakers and law enforcement the ability to respond more quickly to changes in public safety.”
