DAVIS, Calif. — Davis could experience as many as 28 extreme heat days annually by midcentury, compared with a historical average of four, while facing growing risks from drought, flooding and wildfire smoke, according to city planning documents that identify climate adaptation as a central challenge in the community’s General Plan update.
The projections come as California’s newly released Fifth Climate Change Assessment warns of substantially higher temperatures, declining Sierra Nevada snowpack and increasingly volatile precipitation patterns across the state.
Davis’ own Safety and Climate Change Existing Conditions Report, prepared in August 2025 for the General Plan update, projects between 22 and 28 extreme heat days annually during the 2035-2064 period, increasing to between 30 and 50 days by the end of the century.
The projections use a local definition of extreme heat: temperatures exceeding 103.9 degrees Fahrenheit. Historically, Davis experienced an average of four such days annually between 1950 and 2005.
The findings present significant challenges for a city simultaneously planning additional housing, transportation improvements, infrastructure investments and potential development beyond its existing boundaries.
At an Oct. 14 community workshop, Davis presented revised land-use maps identifying a need to accommodate at least 7,300 additional housing units through 2050, alongside a broader framework for residential and employment development.
The city’s General Plan Update identifies climate readiness, housing choice, active transportation, connected neighborhoods and fiscal sustainability among its principal planning objectives.
The climate risks identified in the city’s technical reports include extreme heat, drought, more intense precipitation, flooding and deteriorating air quality associated with wildfires elsewhere in California.
Davis has already adopted policies addressing several of these threats, including its 2020-2040 Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, approved by the City Council in April 2023.
The Climate Action and Adaptation Plan establishes a framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing the community for climate-related hazards, with a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2040.
Its implementation measures address energy efficiency, transportation, land use, stormwater, water management, municipal facilities, parks and urban forestry.
The city’s existing climate vulnerability assessment identifies extreme heat, wildfire smoke, precipitation and drought as hazards likely to intensify during the coming decades.
According to the General Plan’s safety report, more frequent heat waves could affect public health, increase energy demand and accelerate deterioration of roads, mechanical equipment and other infrastructure.
The report identifies the need to account for higher temperatures when improving municipal facilities and developing long-term infrastructure plans.
The health consequences are particularly relevant for older residents, people experiencing homelessness, outdoor workers and households without adequate access to cooling.
Davis’ planning documents identify demographic changes that could affect the community’s vulnerability, including an increase in residents age 65 and older from 9% of the population in 2010 to 13% in 2023.
The city’s Urban Forest Management Plan, adopted in 2023, identifies tree canopy as an important tool for reducing urban temperatures and protecting public health.
The plan establishes a goal of avoiding a net loss of tree canopy while developing a more climate-resilient urban forest through 2060.
Its implementation strategies include planting trees to reduce urban heat islands, addressing differences in canopy coverage among neighborhoods and prioritizing areas with lower-income residents or populations particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures.
The city also identifies the need to select tree species capable of surviving future climate conditions, including prolonged heat and drought.
Davis has pursued additional heat-reduction measures through its Cool Pavement Project, supported by a federal transportation grant of approximately $24 million announced in 2024.
The project proposes installing solar-reflective pavement in selected areas to reduce surface temperatures and address the effects of extreme heat.
Water availability presents another challenge as the city considers future development.
According to the General Plan’s safety report, approximately 80% of Davis’ water supply comes from the Sacramento River, with the remaining 20% supplied by groundwater.
The Sacramento River watershed is vulnerable to drought conditions and changing snowmelt patterns, potentially affecting the reliability of surface water supplies during prolonged dry periods.
The city’s report projects that drought-driven changes could reduce surface water allocations by approximately 30% to 60% during drought years, while groundwater withdrawals could require reductions of 20% to 40% to avoid excessive pumping.
Those figures are planning projections rather than announced reductions in the city’s current water deliveries.
The report identifies coordination between the city’s Public Works Utilities and Operations Department and the Woodland-Davis Clean Water Agency as important for managing water storage, distribution and drought vulnerability.
The statewide climate assessment projects substantial reductions in Sierra Nevada snowpack by midcentury, potentially affecting water availability throughout the Sacramento River system.
For Davis and surrounding agricultural communities, water management also involves balancing residential demand, agricultural production, environmental requirements and groundwater sustainability.
Flooding presents a separate challenge because Davis occupies relatively flat terrain and depends on levees, drainage channels and other infrastructure for protection.
The city’s safety report identifies the maintenance and monitoring of flood-control infrastructure as important measures for managing future risk.
It also warns that more intense precipitation events could increase flooding threats to roads, buildings, emergency services and other critical facilities.
The October General Plan workshop included proposals to preserve drainage channels and open space while examining western planning areas as part of a broader floodplain strategy.
The revised land-use framework also identifies potential development west, northeast and south of Davis, although those proposals remain preliminary and would require additional review and approvals.
The relationship between proposed growth areas, flood exposure and future infrastructure requirements will be part of the city’s continuing planning and environmental review process.
Wildfire smoke is another concern despite Davis’ relatively limited direct exposure to wildland fire hazards.
The city’s safety report identifies smoke and ash from fires elsewhere in California as potential threats to local air quality and public health.
Its climate vulnerability assessment anticipates that changing wildfire conditions could increase the frequency and severity of smoke exposure, with consequences for respiratory and cardiovascular health.
Davis’ Climate and Environmental Justice Commission is charged with advising the City Council on climate adaptation and identifying policies to protect vulnerable communities from hazards including extreme heat, air pollution, drought and flooding.
The commission also has responsibilities involving the city’s natural resources, urban forest and implementation of its climate action policies.
California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment includes a Sacramento Valley regional component covering Yolo County and neighboring communities, coordinated by UC Davis researcher Helene G. Margolis.
The Sacramento Valley assessment identifies increasing variability between wet and dry years as a significant challenge for regional water management and flood protection.
The full regional report was not yet available on the state’s website when this article was prepared.
Davis’ General Plan update is scheduled to continue through 2027, with additional policy development, environmental review and public consideration of the final planning framework.
The city is accepting comments on its revised land-use and mobility proposals through Nov. 13, with further public meetings scheduled in November and December.
The city’s existing climate plans and technical studies identify both the hazards Davis faces and measures intended to address them. The forthcoming General Plan will establish how those policies are incorporated into long-term decisions about development, infrastructure, transportation and community safety.
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