DAVIS, Calif. — Two polls released by congressional challenger Eric Jones’ campaign show him leading longtime Rep. Mike Thompson in California’s 4th Congressional District, while Rep. Ro Khanna has issued late endorsements of three Democratic challengers to incumbent members of Congress, including Jones, just days before the Nov. 3 election.
The developments come as Thompson’s campaign intensifies its criticism of Jones’ policy proposals, releasing a new advertisement accusing the challenger of supporting a plan that could jeopardize Social Security, Medicare, veterans benefits and other federal programs.
The surveys, conducted by David Binder Research and Fulcrum Strategy Group, show Jones ahead by double-digit margins. Both were released by the Jones campaign, however, and their findings have not been independently corroborated by other publicly available surveys.
A survey conducted by David Binder Research from Oct. 15-21 found Jones receiving 45% support among all likely voters, compared with 35% for Thompson. Another 7% were undecided, while 13% said they intended to vote in November but would not select a candidate in the congressional contest.
After excluding the latter group, the polling firm’s reported results were 52% for Jones and 40% for Thompson.
The Binder survey included 600 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by telephone and through online questionnaires.
A separate survey conducted by Fulcrum Strategy Group from Oct. 18-20 reported Jones leading Thompson 53% to 40%, with 7% undecided.
That survey included 400 likely voters, with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Respondents were contacted through landline and mobile telephones, email and text messages.
The Binder Research memo also included results from a July baseline survey of 1,200 voters, when Thompson led Jones 40% to 28%.
The October findings represented a substantial change from those earlier numbers. The available polling does not establish whether that change will be reflected in the election results.
The Fulcrum survey also measured candidate favorability, finding that 45% of respondents viewed Jones favorably and 45% unfavorably, giving him a net favorability rating of zero.
Thompson received a 39% favorable rating and a 53% unfavorable rating, producing a net favorability rating of minus 14 points.
The same survey found that 57% of respondents believed things were seriously on the wrong track.
In a statement accompanying the polling release, Jones said his campaign was focused on affordability, accountability and government responsiveness.
“This race has always been about whether CA-04 will have a representative who shows up, fights for working families, and delivers results,” Jones said.
“Voters deserve better than business as usual. I am running to lower costs, hold government accountable, and make government work for the people it is supposed to serve.”
Jones’ campaign manager, Brian Parvizshahi, said the results reflected the campaign’s organizing efforts throughout the district.
“These numbers show that voters across this district are ready for change, and our coalition is built to deliver it,” Parvizshahi said.
The campaign reported knocking on more than 550,000 doors and holding more than 200 town halls across the district’s nine counties. Those figures were provided by the campaign and have not been independently verified.
Thompson’s campaign, meanwhile, released a new advertisement Oct. 27 focusing on Jones’ proposal to require federal programs and agencies to undergo periodic reviews that could result in their expiration unless renewed.
The advertisement argues that the proposal could threaten programs including Social Security, Medicare, veterans benefits and crop insurance.
“Milk and medicine have expiration dates,” the advertisement states. “Eric Jones wants government services we rely on to have them, too.”
The advertisement continues by warning that Social Security could expire, crop insurance could be canceled and veterans benefits could disappear.
“I’m Mike Thompson and I approve this ad, because your benefits don’t belong in the trash. Eric Jones’ plan does,” Thompson says at the conclusion.
The dispute centers on a proposal previously posted on Jones’ campaign website calling for sunset reviews of nearly all federal programs.
Under a sunset provision, a government program or agency would be subject to periodic reauthorization rather than continuing indefinitely without additional legislative action.
The proposal drew criticism from advocates for Social Security and Medicare, who argued that making the programs subject to expiration could threaten benefits relied upon by millions of Americans.
Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, compared the proposal to an earlier plan advanced by Republican Sen. Rick Scott of Florida.
“This is the first time I’ve seen a Democrat float a ‘sunsetting’ scheme like the one that Republican Senator Rick Scott proposed in 2023,” Richtman said in a statement distributed by Thompson’s campaign.
“Scott, who is no friend to Social Security or Medicare, rightly received significant blowback — because it’s a terrible idea.”
Richtman also argued that voters in the district deserve a representative who would protect Social Security and Medicare rather than place those benefits at risk.
The proposal also drew criticism from VoteVets, a veterans advocacy organization.
“Veterans have had to fight for their benefits for 250 years,” said Travis Tazelaar, the organization’s political director.
“At a time when Republicans are starting wars, fighting benefit expansions like the PACT Act, or aiming DOGE at the Veterans Administration, Eric Jones is handing them a win by trying to cut veterans benefits,” Tazelaar said.
Jones has since said that Social Security and Medicare would not be subject to the proposal.
As previously reported by the Vanguard, Jones told the Davis Enterprise that Social Security and Medicare are “permanently off the table.” His campaign website was also changed after objections from a Social Security advocacy organization.
The Thompson campaign’s advertisement nevertheless uses the original proposal to argue that Jones’ approach to federal spending could place longstanding benefits at risk.
The controversy comes as both candidates have sought to establish their positions on federal benefits and economic policy.
Jones has proposed expanding Medicare coverage to include dental, vision, hearing and in-home nursing care, while Thompson has emphasized his work protecting Social Security and Medicare and advancing legislation to expand benefits.
The polling release and campaign advertisement were followed Friday by another development when Khanna, a Democratic congressman representing Silicon Valley, announced endorsements of three Democratic challengers running against incumbent members of Congress.
In an interview with Axios, Khanna endorsed Jones, Sacramento City Council member Mai Vang, who is challenging Rep. Doris Matsui, and Angela Gonzales-Torres, who is challenging Rep. Jimmy Gomez in Los Angeles.
Khanna described the three candidates as a new generation of Democratic leadership and cited their positions on economic policy and government accountability.
The endorsements came four days before Election Day and involved three sitting Democratic members of Congress facing challengers from within their own party.
Khanna told Axios that he respected Thompson’s service in Congress while supporting Jones’ candidacy.
“I have a tremendous respect and admiration” for Thompson, Khanna said, adding, “But voters are crying out for change.”
Khanna also acknowledged that he had previously participated in an endorsement of Thompson with other members of the California congressional delegation.
“I think very highly of Mike,” Khanna told Axios. “I had, with the delegation, endorsed him earlier, so it’s nothing against him. I just think it’s a new generation and we’re seeing bolder progressives win across the country.”
Thompson spokesperson Thomas Dowling criticized Jones’ personal spending and support from Silicon Valley political figures.
“San Francisco venture capitalist Eric Jones and his Silicon Valley supporters are trying to buy our congressional seat, but it’s not for sale,” Dowling told Axios. “Mike’s support comes from the people who actually live here.”
Khanna’s endorsements come amid disagreements within the Democratic Party over generational leadership, economic policy and the direction of the party.
Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
Jones and Gonzales-Torres finished second in their respective June primaries, while Vang narrowly finished ahead of Matsui.
In the 4th District, Jones has campaigned on affordability, government accountability and changes to economic policy.
Thompson has emphasized his legislative record, including federal funding for fire recovery, flood protection and affordable housing, as well as his work on the House Ways and Means Committee.
The two candidates have also differed over campaign financing.
Jones has invested millions of dollars of his personal wealth in the contest, while his campaign has criticized Thompson’s acceptance of corporate political action committee contributions.
Thompson’s campaign has characterized Jones’ self-funding as an attempt to purchase political influence, while Jones has argued that his financing allows him to operate independently of corporate donors.
The election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
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