PHOENIX, Ariz. — As homicide rates decline across the United States, new research shows that the reduction has been particularly pronounced among young adults, with the number of homicide victims ages 18 to 34 falling 45% between 2020 and 2025, raising questions about the roles of mental health treatment, technology and changing patterns of social interaction.
The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) brought together 48 experts to examine potential factors contributing to the decline in homicides from 2022 to 2025.
On Sept. 18-19, Arizona State University’s School of Criminology and Criminal Justice in Phoenix hosted a homicide summit attended by experts from multiple disciplines, including public health, criminology and economics. CCJ moderators sought to examine available evidence and expert perspectives to identify plausible explanations for the decline in homicide rates.
The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) is an independent, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) organization and think tank based in Washington, D.C., that works to advance evidence-based policies to improve public safety and the U.S. justice system.
According to the Jeff-alytics newsletter, “The Kids Are Alright,” published Oct. 12, crime analyst Jeff Asher examined the recent decline in homicides, particularly the historically significant reduction among young adults compared with other age groups.
Asher found that although homicide victimization has declined across every age group, the reduction has been particularly pronounced among young adults ages 18 to 34.
According to FBI Supplementary Homicide Report data analyzed by Asher, the number of homicide victims ages 18 to 34 declined by 45% between 2020 and 2025, compared with a 21% reduction among all other age groups.
The decline also extended below pre-pandemic levels. Homicides among young adults fell by more than 20% compared with 2019, while the number of homicide victims in other age groups declined by approximately 1% over the same period.
Asher also cited Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data showing that the homicide victimization rate among young adults had fallen well below its 2018 level, while rates among other age groups had generally returned to their earlier levels.
Two possible explanations for the decline in homicide rates were identified by Jens Ludwig in “Crime in COVID Times”: increased mental health treatment and changes in how young adults spend their leisure time.
Ludwig suggested that increased participation in behavioral health treatment among young adults following the COVID-19 pandemic could be a contributing factor, particularly given the expanded availability of telehealth services.
According to an analysis of National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) adult data conducted by KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, young adults have become more likely to receive mental health treatment in recent years.
“In 2022, 26% of young adults reported receiving counseling and/or prescription medications for mental conditions in the past year, representing a significantly higher share compared to all other adults,” according to KFF’s analysis of NHIS adult data.
Ludwig suggested that the increase in behavioral health treatment could potentially contribute to declining violence, particularly among younger populations that have historically experienced higher rates of homicide victimization.
However, the relationship remains a hypothesis, and the available evidence does not establish that increased mental health treatment has directly caused the reduction in homicides.
Furthermore, Ludwig suggested that technology, particularly the growing influence of social media, streaming services and video games, has led young Americans to spend more leisure time at home rather than participating in in-person social activities.
He argued that fewer face-to-face interactions could result in fewer social conflicts, potentially reducing opportunities for violence.
Under this theory, changes in technology have made spending time at home more appealing, reducing the frequency of encounters that might otherwise escalate into violent confrontations.
Asher noted that the theory remains preliminary and that reduced social interaction could have different effects on violence depending on the circumstances.
Research conducted by Jennifer Doleac, formerly of the University of Virginia, and Jillian B. Carr of Purdue University offers a counterpoint to the theory that fewer social interactions necessarily lead to less violence.
Their research examined gun violence during juvenile curfew hours in Washington, D.C., finding that restrictions keeping young people and other residents off public streets could have unintended consequences for public safety.
Juvenile curfews in Washington, D.C., prohibit individuals younger than 18 from remaining in public places during designated hours. Under the city’s seasonal curfew schedule, restrictions generally begin at midnight during July and August.
From September through June, curfew hours begin at 11 p.m. Sunday through Thursday and at midnight Friday and Saturday, with restrictions ending at 6 a.m.
Debate over proposals to tighten juvenile curfew restrictions intensified in May 2025 after community members in Washington’s Navy Yard neighborhood expressed frustration following another large gathering of teenagers.
According to Carr and Doleac, “juvenile curfews are counterproductive for public safety. When the curfew switches [from midnight to 11 p.m. in Washington in September], gun violence goes up during the 11 p.m. hour.”
Their research suggests that the presence of people in public spaces can deter crime by increasing the likelihood that offenders will be observed or apprehended.
The findings raise questions about whether reduced social interaction necessarily contributes to declining violence, particularly when fewer people in public spaces could also reduce informal surveillance and opportunities to intervene.
Asher also identified generational changes in criminal involvement as another possible explanation for the decline in homicides among young adults.
He cited research by Shawn Bushway, Jason Robey and Keith Humphrey suggesting that recent declines in crime and incarceration may reflect changes between generations, with younger cohorts entering adulthood with lower levels of criminal involvement than earlier generations.
Under this explanation, the decline in violence may be associated not only with changes in individual behavior following the pandemic but also with longer-term generational trends.
The research suggests that successive generations have entered adulthood with lower propensities for criminal involvement than cohorts that reached adulthood during the higher-crime decades of the 1980s and 1990s.
These findings offer another potential explanation for why homicide victimization among young adults has fallen substantially below pre-pandemic levels, even as declines among older age groups have been less pronounced.
The competing explanations remain part of an ongoing examination of the decline in homicide rates, with researchers considering how behavioral health treatment, technology, social interactions and generational changes may have contributed to the reduction in violence.
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