NEW YORK — Republican attacks portraying Democrats as soft on crime failed to prevent sweeping Democratic victories in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a Nov. 6 analysis by Vera Action, which argues that candidates offering concrete public safety solutions were better positioned to counter traditional law-and-order messaging.
The organization identified five major takeaways from the elections, concluding that voter concerns about affordability, government corruption and foreign policy overshadowed Republican crime messaging, while the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies and federal deployments contributed to public dissatisfaction.
Although crime was not among voters’ leading concerns, Republicans spent approximately $1.3 billion on crime-related advertising, according to figures from AdImpact cited by Vera Action. That represented about 24% of Republican advertising expenditures, making crime the party’s second-largest advertising focus after taxes and the economy.
President Donald Trump also invoked Willie Horton, whose case became the centerpiece of a racially charged 1988 presidential campaign advertisement attacking Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis.
Despite those efforts, Vera Action found that Democratic candidates in several competitive races successfully countered crime-related attacks by emphasizing violence prevention, accountable policing, mental health services and community investment.
The organization highlighted three particularly expensive contests.
In Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed faced approximately $43 million in advertising attacks involving crime and immigration. Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley faced $26.9 million in similar attacks, while Republicans spent $70.6 million on crime and immigration advertising in Georgia’s gubernatorial election.
All three Democratic candidates won their races, including former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia.
Vera Action pointed to additional victories in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Minnesota as evidence that candidates could respond to crime-related attacks without abandoning criminal justice reform.
The organization cited Pennsylvania congressional candidates Bob Harvie and Paige Cognetti, Ohio Gov.-elect Amy Acton and Minnesota Sen.-elect Peggy Flanagan as examples of Democrats who emphasized prevention, treatment and community safety.
However, the report cautioned that Democratic electoral victories do not necessarily mean voters have developed greater confidence in the party’s handling of crime.
A recent Vera Action poll found that Democrats continued to trail Republicans in overall voter trust on crime and public safety, even as the gap narrowed.
The organization attributed part of that change to public opposition to the Trump administration’s immigration raids, National Guard deployments and reductions in funding for community safety programs.
Vera Action also reported that its October polling found voters preferred what it calls a “serious-about-safety” approach over traditional tough-on-crime messaging by more than 20 percentage points.
That approach emphasizes preventing violence, improving police accountability, expanding behavioral health services and directing civilian responders to situations that do not require armed law enforcement.
The report identified policing as a continuing challenge for Democrats, arguing that candidates should support effective law enforcement while emphasizing accountability and alternatives to police responses for nonviolent emergencies.
In Michigan, El-Sayed advocated investments in behavioral health response and community violence intervention alongside support for law enforcement recruitment and retention.
Vera Action said its Michigan polling found that this response outperformed a Republican-style attack accusing Democrats of supporting police defunding.
The organization also examined election results involving criminal justice ballot measures, finding a more complicated picture than the Democratic victories alone suggested.
Voters in Massachusetts and Idaho rejected efforts to reverse marijuana legalization, while Virginia voters approved restoring voting rights to people convicted of felonies upon their release.
Colorado voters rejected a proposal requiring local law enforcement agencies to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement.
However, voters in Indiana and Tennessee approved measures expanding circumstances in which judges may deny bail. Colorado voters also considered tougher fentanyl penalties, while an Arizona proposal designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations was leading in the vote count when Vera Action published its analysis.
These results suggest that support for Democratic candidates does not automatically translate into support for criminal justice reform proposals.
Vera Action argued that reform advocates must invest more resources in ballot campaigns and develop stronger public explanations of proposed policies.
The report also identified opportunities for policy changes following Democratic gains in state legislatures.
Democrats took control of both legislative chambers in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while making gains in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas.
Those victories could allow newly elected lawmakers to pursue changes involving sentencing, reentry, housing access, community violence prevention and law enforcement accountability.
Vera Action also emphasized the potential connection between public safety and affordability, arguing that investments in housing, education, employment and behavioral health services can help address conditions associated with crime.
The organization pointed to its research showing that 45 state legislatures enacted 425 criminal justice reform laws during the 2026 legislative session, including substantial activity in Republican-controlled and politically competitive states.
Nevertheless, Vera Action warned that Democratic control of Congress and expanded state-level power do not guarantee progress on criminal justice reform.
The report urged newly elected officials to translate campaign promises into policy while recognizing that voters could hold Democrats accountable in the 2028 elections if they fail to deliver meaningful improvements.
With President Trump remaining in the White House, Vera Action expects much of the near-term legislative activity to occur at the state and local levels, where Democratic governors, legislatures and mayors will have greater opportunities to implement their public safety agendas.
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