Colloquially we talk about lies, damn lies, and statistics, but graduate school taught me something a little different. The proper use of statistics avoids these common word pitfalls where you can make statistics say anything you want. The difficulty is that the proper use of statistics is as much an art as a science.
Since the Ferguson shooting, it became pretty clear that we do not have a very good, thorough or complete record of statistics on the use of deadly force by police officers. However, that is probably changing and I have seen a number of pretty careful studies that are emerging.
However, we still get comments thrown about that are carelessly citing delicate statistics. One such is, “There is no big rush of police shooting black men. They shoot 3x as many white suspects / criminals…”
There was a decent response, which accepted that figure as accurate, though without the proper context. One proper context was how to account for two separate pieces of data – one is that blacks make up about 13.2 percent of the population, so any one to one comparison is fraught with problems. The second, probably, is that African-American men, for example, commit a far higher percentage of the violent crimes and murders than their white counterparts.
Unfortunately, we need accurate statistics before we can reach a conclusion.
ProPublica did a fairly thorough analysis back in October and found, “Young black males in recent years were at a far greater risk of being shot dead by police than their white counterparts – 21 times greater i, according to a ProPublica analysis of federally collected data on fatal police shootings.”
They write, “The 1,217 deadly police shootings from 2010 to 2012 captured in the federal data show that blacks, age 15 to 19, were killed at a rate of 31.17 per million, while just 1.47 per million white males in that age range died at the hands of police.”
They go further, “One way of appreciating that stark disparity, ProPublica’s analysis shows, is to calculate how many more whites over those three years would have had to have been killed for them to have been at equal risk. The number is jarring – 185, more than one per week.”
Again there are warnings on these statistics. ProPublica talked to University of Albany Professor Colin Loftin, who is co-director of the Violence Research Group. He said, as ProPublica reports, “The FBI data is a minimum count of homicides by police, and that it is impossible to precisely measure what puts people at risk of homicide by police without more and better records. Still, what the data shows about the race of victims and officers, and the circumstances of killings,” are “certainly relevant,” Loftin said.
“No question, there are all kinds of racial disparities across our criminal justice system,” he said. “This is one example.”
They note again, “The data, for instance, is terribly incomplete. Vast numbers of the country’s 17,000 police departments don’t file fatal police shooting reports at all, and many have filed reports for some years but not others. Florida departments haven’t filed reports since 1997 and New York City last reported in 2007. Information contained in the individual reports can also be flawed. Still, lots of the reporting police departments are in larger cities, and at least 1000 police departments filed a report or reports over the 33 years.”
So our first and perhaps primary key point is that anyone claiming to have definitive data on this is wrong.
Second, why is ProPublica’s analysis showing a much higher discrepancy between white and black shootings than the data some of our posters are citing? The answer lies in the follow up piece by ProPublica who was heavily criticized for their findings.
One of the biggest criticisms is the point they made in their original and that is that the data set they used is “deeply flawed.”
But the criticism goes further and it enlightens the discrepancy – first they should have included men of all ages, not just 15- to 19-years-olds, and, moreover, they excluded Hispanics from their analysis.
They write, “Peter Moskos, an associate professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and former Baltimore police officer, questioned our decision to exclude Hispanics from the white population.”
We disagree with that criticism. We believe that inserting Hispanics into the white population actually would distort the findings. We would expect Hispanic males age 15 to 19 to be much more similar to the black population’s interactions with the police, than the white non-Hispanic population’s interactions with the police.
So if the statistics that were cited here found a 3 to 1 ratio of whites getting killed included Hispanics, those findings in our view would be flawed.
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As ProPublica noted in their follow up, “We’ve seen little evidence from our reporting that law enforcement officials treat the large Hispanic populations in say, Los Angeles, in the same manner as white citizens.”
That was a big flag for me that other data might include Hispanics; without seeing where people are citing their numbers, it is hard to know for sure.
ProPublica briefly addressed two other issues. One was that they only looked at 15- to 19-year-olds. They write, “Our reporting came in the midst of debate and protest over the shooting death of Michael Brown, who was 18 years old and black, so teenage black men were the natural focus of our analysis. Of particular interest was whether the perception that black young men were at greater risk was supported by the FBI’s data. What happens to older men was not the subject of our story, and including them in the analysis was therefore not germane.”
It would, however, be interesting to see if including older individuals in the survey would change the data that much – one would suspect it would not and might actually move it even more sharply in the direction of blacks being disproportionately shot.
In terms of the 2010 to 2012 survey set, it was largely driven by needs to be able to have a static baseline population.
They did retest different periods of time, “To test the critics’ argument, we calculated risk ratios for as far back as the American Community Survey data goes (2008). From 2006 to 2008, the risk ratio was 9.1 to 1 (with a 95 percent confidence interval 6.19, 13.39); from 2008 to 2010 the risk ratio was 17.93 to 1 (95 percent confidence interval 9.38, 34.30). And whether 9 times as great, 17 times or 21 times, the racial disparity remains vast, and demands deeper investigation.”
One final note from ProPublica is they note this is not “proof of police bias.” They “found evidence of a disparity in the risks faced by young black and white men. This does not prove that police officers target any age or racial group – the data is far too limited to point to a cause for the disparity.”
So, in conclusion, we urge caution in the use of statistics.
First, we know that the use of deadly force statistics are flawed and incomplete.
Second, be wary of attempting to examine a broad swath of statistics based on percentage of the population, because that is not a static ratio.
Third, some statistical measures are understating the discrepancy between killings of blacks and whites by including Hispanics among the whites.
Fourth, you cannot properly use statistics to say whatever you want, but there is both an art and a science to the proper interpretation of statistics.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
“We disagree with that criticism. We believe that inserting Hispanics into the white population actually would distort the findings. We would expect Hispanic males age 15 to 19 to be much more similar to the black population’s interactions with the police, than the white non-Hispanic populations interactions with the police.”
It is often hard to distinguish between Hispanic and white individuals.
“One final note from ProPublica, they note this is not “proof of police bias.” They “found evidence of a disparity in the risks faced by young black and white men. This does not prove that police officers target any age or racial group – the data is far too limited to point to a cause for the disparity.””
Precisely.
Do I believe that some police officers are racially biased. Absolutely. Do I believe that some police officers use excessive force? Absolutely. Do I believe that racial bias and use of excessive force may be pervasive behaviors in a particular police department? Absolutely. Do I believe that generally (more than 75%) police officers are racially biased? No. Do I believe that generally (more than 75%) police officers use excessive force? No.
“It is often hard to distinguish between Hispanic and white individuals.”
That actually doesn’t matter for this analysis since we are looking at the variance between white and black officer involved shootings. If anything the fact that Hispanic introduce two factors – (1) similarity to blacks in terms of police responses and (2) can pass as looking white, argues for refining the data more.
“Do I believe that generally (more than 75%) police officers are racially biased? No. Do I believe that generally (more than 75%) police officers use excessive force? No.”
Where are you coming up with the 75% figure? And why?
I used the 75% number so readers would know where I was coming from. I cannot say with certainty that I believe 65% of police do not use excessive force. Hope that makes sense.
I’m sorry I’m really not following that line. I know the research on use of force complaints fairly well – I don’t have it handy, but it’s a very low percentage of officers and it tends to be a few officers with the vast majority of complaints.
Anon
I also wondered how you derived the 75% that you cite. However, that is not my main concern. If you do believe that some police officers are racially biased, and that some police officers use excessive force, and that racial bias and excessive force are pervasive behaviors in particular police departments, then are you not essentially in agreement with what those on the “left” and in the black community as portrayed in the mainstream media have been saying ? What do you see as the reasonable steps that should be taken to address these issues that in your own words would have a disparate impact on the black community ?
Where my disagreement lies is that there is somehow racial bias in every encounter between white police officers and black citizens. That I do not believe. I suspect there is more of a problem of the use of excessive force by police regardless of race – but not in all police departments. But I have absolutely no doubt there is racism in certain police departments.
As to a solution, that is very difficult to say. In predominantly black neighborhoods, I believe there needs to be predominantly black police officers hired. That might be a good start. I think police departments need to consistently punish officers who do not abide by proper police procedure, and city gov’t needs to demand that they do. Davis did just that by firing its police chief and hiring a much better one, that got it right – Chief Landy Black. I have the utmost respect for this gentleman.
Anon, how many young black men are likely to pull a weapon on a white officer, but not a black officer?
TBD, I can’t speak for Anon, but if a young man of any color is likely to pull a weapon on a police officer, the only color they will likely be seeing is the blue of the officer’s uniform.
When the US military was in the middle of the surge to eradicate the militant Islamists from Fallujah Iraq, anyone looking like an Islamist was much more apt to be shot and killed than in other cities with fewer Islamists and certainly than when the US military wasn’t around.
The problem with the statistics that David and others put out to make a case of cop racism is that they fail to control for the concentration of both crime and blacks in the communities where most of the shooting statistics derive. Some of these communities are actually more dangerous and deadly than is Fallujah.
I will repeat the “solution” at hand. Like in Iraq, we should pull back law enforcement to a perimeter established around these high crime communities. And just like when the US military pulled out of Fallujah, the statistics for people shot and killed by US authorities will drop to nothing. And this problem that David and others are obsessed about will cease to be a problem.
But then we will have a big pile of new problems.
And while we are wringing our hands over the current statistics, we should consider what the true root causes and what will be the consequences of “solutions” only masking those root causes.
“The problem with the statistics that David and others put out to make a case of cop racism is that they fail to control for the concentration of both crime and blacks in the communities where most of the shooting statistics derive. ”
The problem is that I’m not trying to make that case. I’m actually looking at the issue from the opposite perspective and I believe that blacks are justified in believing that they are being targeted. As I pointed out in the conclusion of this analysis, the data do not show that they are in fact being targeted.
Whoa, back the truck up. You are assuming blacks are justified in believing they are being targeted, but you have no data to back that assertion up!
It’s helpful if you not distort what I said. What I said was that there was insufficient data to confirm or deny the racial bias component. There is evidence to support the contention, it’s been laid out previously. Based on that, there are reasons why blacks would feel they are being targeted – that doesn’t mean they are, but there are reasons why they would feel that way.
Or we could send in the National Guard. I believe Philadelphia has over 400 murders a year, a huge number for a modest-sized city.
TBD, if you check the FBI’s Crime In The United States website (see http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/6tabledatadecpdf/table-6 ) you will find that Philadelphia ranked 5th in the nation with a total number of “Murders and Non-Negligent Manslaughters” of 247 in the most recent reporting year 2013. When you calculate the rate of Murders and Non-Negligent Manslaughters per 100,000 residents Philadelphia’s rate is 15.9, which ranks 47th in the nation.
Here are the top 55 cities by number of Murders and Non-Negligent Manslaughters. I chose 55 because Sacramento is 54th and Stockton is 55th
MSA Principal Cities Metropolitan Statistical Area Population “Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter” Rate per 100,000 inhabitants
City of Chicago, IL Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI M.S.A.4, 5 2,720,554 414 15.22
City of New York, NY New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA M.S.A. 8,396,126 335 3.99
City of Detroit Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI M.S.A. 699,889 316 45.15
City of Los Angeles Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA M.S.A. 3,878,725 251 6.47
City of Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD M.S.A. 1,553,153 247 15.90
City of Baltimore Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD M.S.A. 622,671 233 37.42
City of Houston Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX M.S.A. 2,180,606 214 9.81
City of New Orleans New Orleans-Metairie, LA M.S.A. 377,022 156 41.38
City of Dallas Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX M.S.A. 1,255,015 143 11.39
City of Indianapolis Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN M.S.A.2 850,220 129 15.17
City of Memphis, TN Memphis, TN-MS-AR M.S.A. 657,691 124 18.85
City of St. Louis, MO St. Louis, MO-IL M.S.A. 318,563 120 37.67
City of Phoenix Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ M.S.A.5 1,502,139 118 7.86
City of Newark, NJ New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA M.S.A. 278,246 112 40.25
City of Milwaukee Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI M.S.A. 600,805 104 17.31
City of Washington, D.C. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV M.S.A. 646,449 103 15.93
City of Kansas City, MO Kansas City, MO-KS M.S.A. 465,514 99 21.27
City of Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV M.S.A. 1,500,455 97 6.46
City of Jacksonville Jacksonville, FL M.S.A. 845,745 93 11.00
City of Oakland San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA M.S.A. 403,887 90 22.28
City of Atlanta Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA M.S.A. 451,020 84 18.62
City of San Antonio San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX M.S.A. 1,399,725 72 5.14
City of Miami Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL M.S.A. 418,394 71 16.97
City of Cincinnati, OH Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN M.S.A. 296,491 70 23.61
City of Birmingham Birmingham-Hoover, AL M.S.A. 212,001 63 29.72
City of Oklahoma City Oklahoma City, OK M.S.A. 605,034 62 10.25
City of Tulsa Tulsa, OK M.S.A. 394,498 60 15.21
City of Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC M.S.A. 837,638 59 7.04
City of Gary, IN Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI M.S.A.4, 5 78,819 54 68.51
City of Jackson Jackson, MS M.S.A. 176,039 50 28.40
City of Baton Rouge Baton Rouge, LA M.S.A. 230,212 49 21.28
City of Fort Worth Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX M.S.A. 789,035 48 6.08
City of San Francisco San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA M.S.A. 833,863 48 5.76
City of Louisville Metro, KY Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN M.S.A.2 671,120 48 7.15
City of Flint Flint, MI M.S.A. 99,941 48 48.03
City of Tucson Tucson, AZ M.S.A. 525,486 47 8.94
City of Buffalo Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY M.S.A. 258,789 47 18.16
City of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA M.S.A.3 307,632 45 14.63
City of San Bernardino Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA M.S.A. 214,322 45 21.00
City of Omaha, NE Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA M.S.A. 425,076 42 9.88
City of Rochester Rochester, NY M.S.A. 210,562 42 19.95
City of Denver Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO M.S.A. 648,981 40 6.16
City of Fresno Fresno, CA M.S.A. 508,876 40 7.86
City of San Diego San Diego-Carlsbad, CA M.S.A. 1,349,306 39 2.89
City of Boston, MA Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH M.S.A. 643,799 39 6.06
City of San Jose San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA M.S.A. 992,143 38 3.83
City of Albuquerque Albuquerque, NM M.S.A. 558,165 37 6.63
City of Richmond Richmond, VA M.S.A. 212,830 37 17.38
City of Trenton Trenton, NJ M.S.A. 84,439 37 43.82
City of Minneapolis, MN Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI M.S.A. 396,206 36 9.09
City of Nashville Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN M.S.A. 635,673 35 5.51
City of Little Rock Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR M.S.A. 197,399 35 17.73
City of Long Beach Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA M.S.A. 469,665 34 7.24
City of Sacramento Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA M.S.A. 478,182 34 7.11
City of Stockton Stockton-Lodi, CA M.S.A. 299,796 32 10.67
When you look at the top 55 Cities by Rate of Murders and Non-Negligent Mmanslaughters, the list looks like this.
MSA Principal Cities Metropolitan Statistical Area Population “Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter” Rate per 100,000 inhabitants
City of Gary, IN Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI M.S.A.4, 5 78,819 54 68.51
City of Saginaw Saginaw, MI M.S.A. 50,580 29 57.33
City of Flint Flint, MI M.S.A. 99,941 48 48.03
City of Detroit Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI M.S.A. 699,889 316 45.15
City of Trenton Trenton, NJ M.S.A. 84,439 37 43.82
City of New Orleans New Orleans-Metairie, LA M.S.A. 377,022 156 41.38
City of Newark, NJ New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA M.S.A. 278,246 112 40.25
City of St. Louis, MO St. Louis, MO-IL M.S.A. 318,563 120 37.67
City of Baltimore Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD M.S.A. 622,671 233 37.42
City of Johnstown Johnstown, PA M.S.A. 21,954 7 31.88
City of Benton Harbor Niles-Benton Harbor, MI M.S.A. 10,039 3 29.88
City of Birmingham Birmingham-Hoover, AL M.S.A. 212,001 63 29.72
City of Wilkes-Barre Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, PA M.S.A.3 41,166 12 29.15
City of Jackson Jackson, MS M.S.A. 176,039 50 28.40
City of York York-Hanover, PA M.S.A. 43,841 12 27.37
City of Wilmington, DE Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD M.S.A. 71,460 19 26.59
City of Cincinnati, OH Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN M.S.A. 296,491 70 23.61
City of Oakland San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA M.S.A. 403,887 90 22.28
City of Anniston Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville, AL M.S.A. 22,648 5 22.08
City of Baton Rouge Baton Rouge, LA M.S.A. 230,212 49 21.28
City of Kansas City, MO Kansas City, MO-KS M.S.A. 465,514 99 21.27
City of Vallejo Vallejo-Fairfield, CA M.S.A. 118,336 25 21.13
City of San Bernardino Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA M.S.A. 214,322 45 21.00
City of Rochester Rochester, NY M.S.A. 210,562 42 19.95
City of North Little Rock Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR M.S.A. 65,398 13 19.88
City of Dayton Dayton, OH M.S.A. 141,167 28 19.83
City of Macon Macon, GA M.S.A. 91,177 18 19.74
City of Hot Springs Hot Springs, AR M.S.A. 35,551 7 19.69
City of Sebring Sebring, FL M.S.A. 10,318 2 19.38
City of Brunswick Brunswick, GA M.S.A.2 15,709 3 19.10
City of Kansas City, KS Kansas City, MO-KS M.S.A. 147,618 28 18.97
City of Memphis, TN Memphis, TN-MS-AR M.S.A. 657,691 124 18.85
City of Atlanta Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA M.S.A. 451,020 84 18.62
City of Hartford Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT M.S.A. 124,927 23 18.41
City of Buffalo Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY M.S.A. 258,789 47 18.16
City of Little Rock Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR M.S.A. 197,399 35 17.73
City of Denison Sherman-Denison, TX M.S.A. 22,652 4 17.66
City of Bradenton North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL M.S.A. 51,023 9 17.64
City of Richmond Richmond, VA M.S.A. 212,830 37 17.38
City of Milwaukee Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI M.S.A. 600,805 104 17.31
City of Miami Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL M.S.A. 418,394 71 16.97
City of Williamsport Williamsport, PA M.S.A. 29,536 5 16.93
City of Gadsden Gadsden, AL M.S.A. 36,610 6 16.39
City of Jackson Jackson, TN M.S.A. 67,371 11 16.33
City of Hampton, VA Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC M.S.A. 136,949 22 16.06
City of Washington, D.C. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV M.S.A. 646,449 103 15.93
City of Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD M.S.A. 1,553,153 247 15.90
City of Conway, SC Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC M.S.A. 19,121 3 15.69
City of Salinas Salinas, CA M.S.A. 155,742 24 15.41
City of Chicago, IL Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI M.S.A.4, 5 2,720,554 414 15.22
City of Tulsa Tulsa, OK M.S.A. 394,498 60 15.21
City of Indianapolis Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN M.S.A.2 850,220 129 15.17
City of Canton Canton-Massillon, OH M.S.A. 72,598 11 15.15
City of Fort Myers Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL M.S.A. 66,835 10 14.96
City of Lake Charles Lake Charles, LA M.S.A. 73,894 11 14.89
This is contradictory.
If the data do not show that they are in fact being targeted, then how do you believe they are justified in believing they are targeted?
It’s not contradictory. There are two different standards – there is enough evidence that we cannot exclude a conclusion of bias but there is insufficient evidence to conclude that biased policing is driving the results.
Correlation is not causation. In terms of solving problems, outcome data is useless without root cause analysis.
If biased policing is not driving the result, then we have a lot of people in positions of power and influence that need to be taken down immediately.
That’s exactly the point I’m making here: “There are two different standards – there is enough evidence that we cannot exclude a conclusion of bias but there is insufficient evidence to conclude that biased policing is driving the results.” We do not have the data to prove biased policing, we also do not have the data to prove that biased policing is not occurring.
This from a book “Policing Citizenship: America’s Antidemocratic Institutions and the New Civic Underclass”
Let’s be honest here. High-crime neighborhoods are also neighborhoods with a higher concentration of under-class. People with greater personal problems: substance abuse, mental and emotional health challenges, low education levels, general ignorance, low morality, etc., etc., etc. We can either send in the police to keep the order, or get them out of there. I vote to get them out of there. I value the lives of the cops and it is clear from the ramped up anger over their attempts to provide order, they are not welcome and their lives are in greater danger.
But to ensure that other lower crime neighborhoods are protected, we need to redeploy the officers to defend a perimeter. And we need to publish this perimeter so that the bad guys know the risks they will face if they go outside of their neighborhood to do crime.
This is the key dilemma. But your solution is the wrong one. And you’re also wrong to view it as either “We can either send in the police to keep the order, or get them out of there.” That implies either we do what is not working or we give up. The third alternative is the one I would propose – find a better way to engage with the community.
“And we need to publish this perimeter so that the bad guys know the risks they will face if they go outside of their [high crime] neighborhood to do crime.”
You also use the terms, “People with greater personal problems: substance abuse, mental and emotional health challenges, low education levels, general ignorance, low morality, etc.”
Taken together, your position appears to be, to paraphrase Marie Antoinette, “let them eat ‘merde’ (and die?)”. Nice. Very ‘conservative Republican’ of you [your characterization in the past, not mine]. Obviously not either Christian, Jewish, Islamic, nor moral humanist. You must enjoy dystopian literature/media. You would have the non-bad guys submit to the criminal element in their neighborhood, while still paying taxes to fund public safety for the folks who live in low crime areas. Maybe create a “ghetto”? Sweet. You ought to run for public office to implement that wonderful strategy.
This is not a position that I agree with. But it is the logical response to the current complaint about the cops. And it would immediately solve the problem being complained about.
Don Shor does what I was hoping… provide some ideas for what else should be done. The current fusillade of criticism against the cops, including their executions, is completely void of recommended solutions.
I don’t think citizen oversight commissions are going to help much in these areas because the type of people that could reasonably perform in this capacity would be called names like “oreo” and would be categorized as the same or similar to the cops. Either that or they would have to be so anti-cop like our previous human relations commission, that they lose credibility to do the job. I think community policing might help as it would allow officers to develop friendly relationships with residents. Then if and when a critical law enforcement event occurs, there would be more two-sided consideration.
But I think we are chasing the wrong end of the dog focusing on policing. I see the meltdown between the police and the residents of these communities as only being a symptom of decades of failed liberal policies of governance in a post civil rights era. And yes, automation and globalization have also contributed and we can certainly lump them as being more conservative in nature. However, automation and globalization are not things we can control… we can only learn to adjust for them.
The root cause of the meltdowns in the black communities is due to:
– Crappy economic circumstances in those communities.
– Crappy educational circumstances in those communities
– The loss of traditional strong family values, including strong morality, in those communities.
And all three of these things are brought to us primarily by the political and social ideas of many, if not most of, the same people decrying the cops as a source of the problem.
We should be focused on fixing those three things. Vote Republican if you agree. It is time for civil rights 2.0. Stop locking backwards and start looking forwards. The Democrats have proven they cannot. They are so hooked on group-sim wars to gain and retain power, that they are incapable of doing anything else.
No, our fellow citizens who live in those neighborhoods need to feel they have a voice. Everybody is entitled to police protection. If they don’t feel they are being well treated, their perception is an issue regardless of what the statistics may show. So communication is the key. Citizen oversight commissions and community policing are possible options. Acknowledging the anger and frustration and recognizing when one approach may not be working. Urban mayors who are pragmatic and who listen tend to get results.
A third option is ago have a few cities to enact an all-black police force as an experiment, and then analyze those data points 5-10 years out. But we will have taken away ‘white racism’ as an easy crutch explanation.
Frankly
“I see the meltdown between the police and the residents of these communities as only being a symptom of decades of failed liberal policies of governance in a post civil rights era.”
Is there anything in our society that you do not like that you do not see as “only a symptom of decades of failed liberal policies”?
Not intending to be snide. This is an honest question given that this is the stock lead in to your disparagement of “liberals” as the source of our problems.
Pull the police out of the high-crime areas? I think not. That leaves the innocent to fend for themselves, to be pick-pocketed, assaulted and murdered. It has happened to young children and seniors. Good grief. And my guess is the victims of crime, as well as law-abiding citizens of those areas are not complaining about the police presence/racism, by the way.
What might help though, to solve this issue, and it has been tried successfully in other areas, is to hire more minority police officers in minority neighborhoods. That way the racism issue goes away. From the DOJ: “Although there is a wide range of opinion on what type of person is best suited to handle the rigors of the job, three factors are considered vital in terms of violence between the police and community. These factors should be incorporated into the overall process of recruiting and selecting police officers:
• The department should have a ratio of employees of color and national origin that reflects the diversity of the community it serves.
• Continued emphasis should be placed on bringing into law enforcement people reflecting a variety of college disciplines.
• Individuals should be psychologically suited to handle the requirements of the
job.”
Here is another suggestion:
“Rice’s time battling the LAPD, and specifically captain Charlie Beck, who is now LA’s police chief, eventually led to a place where there could be trust. They worked together to reform the department.
Some of that change included LAPD officers going into projects to set up youth sports programs and health screenings, things that made people’s lives better and brought police and predominantly black communities closer together.”
If this is what the police are doing, they are not law enforcement, they are something else. Is that really a solution? Maybe, but we would need to completely rethink what policing is… and consider the consequences from changing it.
Frankly
“If this is what the police are doing, they are not law enforcement, they are something else. Is that really a solution? Maybe, but we would need to completely rethink what policing is… and consider the consequences from changing it.”
I think that you have arrived at one central core of the issue. In many of your posts you have asserted that police are only there for “law enforcement”. I have always seen their role as much more complex. I see the police as protectors and defenders. But this does not always mean that they are using force to achieve the safety of their community.
Safety is best achieved through prevention of acts that threaten that safety. So if theft is prevented by providing a woman trying to feed her hungry grandchildren with food rather than arresting her for in desperation trying to steal some eggs ( recent on line story) this direct and humane action also prevents crime and builds community trust.
If kids are busy with after school projects and sports, they are less likely to be vandalizing, stealing, or doing drugs. To me, these kinds of activities should be at the core of community policing. I do not believe that these are new concepts but that they should be much more frequently used and much more prominently on display.
I just happened upon this study out of Chicago, which while it does not directly involve the police, illustrates that point about crime prevention as an effective alternative to after the fact apprehension and incarceration.
http://news.uchicago.edu/article/2014/12/04/chicago-summer-jobs-program-students-dramatically-reduces-youth-violence
David wrote: “The second, probably, is that African-American men, for example, commit a far higher percentage of the violent crimes and murders than their white counterparts.”
Interesting that he provided no data here, numbers which are off the charts. There is not a 5% or 10% difference, but a difference by a multiple in category after category … I’ll let David provide the numbers and analysis so that I am not accused o lying with statistics.
There are lots of related driver statistics here. For example, I think it was Petaluma or Sonoma I looked up once, and there were 20+ known Mexican gangs, and only 1 known (mainly defunct) white gang … so this is not proportional, and numbers like this for brown and black gangs have a huge impact on all kinds of crime numbers. And this is just one item.
The overall incarceration rate for black males was 9 times higher than for whites
On murder it was eight times higher.
So the use of deadly force statistics show about twice the discrepency of the murder or incarceration statistics.
The murder rate was according to stats from 1980 to 2008 by the DOJ.
TBD wrote:
> I think it was Petaluma or Sonoma I looked up once, and there were 20+
> known Mexican gangs, and only 1 known (mainly defunct) white gang …
TBD’s post reminds me that 30 years ago a big Southern California city had 20+ strip clubs where guys could go watch naked women and only 1 (struggling to stay in business) strip club where women (and gay guys on different nights) could watch naked guys.
The sooner that we realize that we are all different and it is not “sexist” to say that most (but not all) women don’t like to go out and pay $50 for lap dances with naked guys (or shoot people) and it is not “racist” to say that most (but not all) white kids who’s parents work in the Sonoma County wine industry don’t join gangs (or shoot people)…
You are on a roll this morning, SoD. What you have said expresses reality beautifully, succinctly and understandably. Well done!
South of Davis
“The sooner that we realize that we are all different and it is not “sexist” to say that most (but not all) women don’t like to go out and pay $50 for lap dances with naked guys (or shoot people) and it is not “racist” to say that most (but not all) white kids who’s parents work in the Sonoma County wine industry don’t join gangs (or shoot people)…”
I agree with this comment as far as it goes. However, it misses another point that I have not yet seen addressed here on this topic. The point is how we categorize crime. Most of the postings here ( because of the topics chosen) only address street crime. We are focusing on theft, robbery, muggings, shootings. What we as a society take a de facto much more tolerant view of is white collar crime even when that crime causes far more actual harm than does stealing a bag of cheese, or cheetos and a coke ( for example).
We have seen multiple examples of very bad behavior on the part of company executives without a single incarceration. I will provide a health care related example. The deliberate actions of cigarette company CEOs in hiding the information known about the carcinogenicity of cigarettes as well as other life threatening consequences, as well as their deliberate marketing to youth came out clearly in investigations. Their actions have resulted in thousands and thousands of deaths from cigarette exposure. They knew this would occur and their were even emails about having to recruit children to replenish their customer base. All of this was done in the name of profits ( or in the street vernacular “to enhance the value of the “gang”). And yet, how many of these executives ended up behind bars ?
So we have decided, as a society, that we will prosecute and incarcerate, not only the truly physically dangerous, but the pathetic individuals who lack enough impulse control to not steal a bag of cheese, and yet we will allow those who are responsible for thousands of deaths to walk free. We incarcerate those whom we fear, or whom appear different, or who are even just a nuisance in the community, while those guilty of far more heinous crimes but who happen to look and speak similarly to us and who have mastered manipulation of our system to go about their business.
These kinds of disparate punishment not only skew the numbers, because we define the street gang member as a “murderer” but not the executive responsible for many more deaths, but also lead to the perception of inequality under the law and subsequently disrespect for that system of law.
Tia wrote:
> and yet we will allow those who are responsible
> for thousands of deaths to walk free
First let me say that it bothers me that banking execs (and many others) that have broken laws are not in jail (and continue to just pay “fines” vs. having someone sit in a cell for decades). It really bothers me that rich people (who give to BOTH Republicans and Democrats) often pay (aka make “legal campaign contributions”) to have a law changed BEFORE they break it.
Who are these people “responsible for thousands of deaths” that “walk free”? Is it the cigarette company CEO, the McDonalds CEO? If they are “responsible for thousands of deaths” (vs. the people that smoke and eat too much taking personal responsibility for their health) wouldn’t (using the same left of center “we need to protect everyone” logic) doctors and teachers that didn’t stop their fat patients and students from overeating also be “responsible for thousands of deaths”?
In the 1930s there was a report on crime in San Francisco called “The Atherton Report” and it pinpointed police graft and prostitution in the city. I skimmed either the report or several articles years ago, and they focused part of their report on the various levels of prostitution that existed, many run by people of French decent or citizenship. I think a lot of the police who were skimming money had Irish surnames.
I didn’t read anyone claiming racism when they noted who was committing the crimes.
The Left the past 20 or more years always wants to start the discussion on racism, and go from there. Why don’t we open it up, and look at the so well-loved “root causes”?
1. Liberal policies have failed in many respects – education, crime, housing, etc. California went from the no. 1 school system in America to no. 48 when run by liberals?
2. The Black Family survived slavery, survived Jim Crow, survived before civil rights legislation, survived the deep South, but has been ripped apart by liberal do-gooder policies.
3. Before liberal policies, the Black family was as intact, or more intact, than White families.
4. New York City had 2,000 murders per year with liberal mayors, and the murder rate was taken below 400 per year with numerous measures seen as “conservative” or “tough on crime”.
5. Seattle has implemented new liberal policing policies under an Eric Holder consent decree, and crime is up over 20%. I think auto theft is up over 40%.
6. When the Mafia was targeted as an Italian crime syndicate, not a lot of people were claiming racism.
7. I read years ago that 80% of men in jail were illiterate, and 80% didn’t grown up with a Father in the home.
TBD wrote:
> I read years ago that 80% of men in jail were illiterate, and
> 80% didn’t grown up with a Father in the home.
I believe those stats are for men in “prison” (not jail).
Years ago I had an ex-con working for me and I referred to a state “prison” as a “jail” and he corrected me saying that people that have spent time in both jail prison never mix up the two (prison is a lot worse than jail)…