Vice President Joe Biden appears to have done what he needed to do against Paul Ryan. He was never going to get, nor did he really to do to Congressman Ryan, what Mitt Romney did to Obama. What he needed to do was be fiery, combative, call out what the Obama campaign is calling lies and deception, and fight for their record.
On Thursday night, for the most part, he did just that. The two most widely available polls largely reflect that. A CNN poll of debate-watchers gave Mr. Ryan a slight edge of 48 to 44, basically a tie. A CBS poll of undecided voters found it was 50 to 31 for the Vice President with another 19 percent calling it a tie.
To be quite frank and off-topic for a second, the media’s fixation on undecided, I think, is misplaced. The real group that we should be watching are the percentages of those who have been moving with the ebb and flow of the polls since the Republican convention, those who moved toward President Obama and then toward Governor Romney after last week’s debate.
The last two debates I have done so, watching my Twitter feed. It is a good instapoll to assess where the pundits and activists are. The liberals on my Twitter feed last week were hammering President Obama for his failure to call Mitt Romney on what they perceived as lies. This week they were hammering Joe Biden more playfully for what they saw as abusing his younger opponent.
As Nate Silver points out this morning, “Vice-presidential debates rarely move head-to-head numbers between the presidential candidates – even when there is a much clearer verdict in instant-reaction polls. So one should err on the side of caution in assuming that the debate had much influence either way.”
However, what this does do is stem some of the tide and reassures the base about the viability of the ticket.
From the beginning of this election my read of this was this is 2004. In 2004, Democrats thought that President George Bush was vulnerable. His popularity was below 50 percent for much of the election. His policies were unpopular. The war in Iraq was unpopular and going poorly.
But the Democrats nominated a weak opponent who performed poorly over the summer and, in particular, after the convention. John Kerry, like his Massachusetts counterpart, was widely considered dead until the first debate re-opened the door.
People heavily questioned the competence and knowledge of George Bush, but his performance in the second debate stemmed the tide. But it still remained close until Election Day, when George Bush pulled out a narrow but improbable victory.
One thing that Joe Biden may well get marked down for is his smirking demeanor during the debate. Back in 2000, George Bush made gains in the polls after criticism of Al Gore’s demeanor.
The difference here is that we kind of expect the Vice Presidential candidates to roll around in the dirt a bit and be combative. Joe Biden is a street fighter for sure, he is, in a lot of ways, unpolished and he can be crass despite his long years in Washington. We saw a bit of that last night and for many, that is actually what they wanted to see.
I tend to agree with Mr. Silver’s overall interpretation: “My best guess: perhaps Mr. Biden can be credited with what in baseball statistics would be termed a ‘hold’: something a bit shy of either a win or a save and which will probably seem perfunctory with the passage of time, but which might have done his team a bit of good.”
The bottom line is that everyone is going to be waiting to see how President Obama does in the next round.
What should concern Democrats, however, is the fact that a Democrat close to the Barack Obama Campaign reported that when President Obama stepped off the stage, he actually believed he had won the debate.
Moreover, the President did not take his debate preparation seriously and ignored the advice of senior aides, refusing to use the one-liners that had been prepared that would have wounded Governor Romney.
One-liners are critical because, in the age of social media, they are easiest to tweet and repeat.
As Toby Harnden reported earlier this week, “The Democrat said that Obama’s inner circle was dismayed at the ‘disaster’ and that he believed the central problem was that the President was so disdainful of Romney that he didn’t believe he needed to engage with him.”
“‘President Obama made it clear he wanted to be doing anything else – anything – but debate prep,’ the Democrat said. ‘He kept breaking off whenever he got the opportunity and never really focused on the event.”
“‘He went into the debate armed with a number of one-liners to throw at Romney, including at least two about Romney not caring about 47 per cent of the country. But he decided not to use them.'”
This has been a complaint of Democrats about Barack Obama from the start. Joe Biden was always going to be more natural at getting into the mud. Paul Ryan was unable to match his passion and intensity, but he did give a solid performance.
The tone was set from the start, as Congressman Ryan delivered a criticism of the Obama administration’s foreign policy. It was clear that allegations would not be unresponded to.
After Congressman Ryan said that “when we show that we’re cutting down on defense, it makes us more weak. It projects weakness. And when we look weak, our adversaries are much more willing to test us. They’re more brazen in their attacks and our allies are less willing to…”
Vice Presidential Biden responded, “With all due respect, that’s a bunch of malarkey” and explained “Because not a single thing he said is accurate.”
Paul Ryan’s best moment came when Joe Biden mentioned the 47% percent line and he responded, “I think the vice president very well knows, that sometimes the words don’t always come out the right way.”
Even Joe Biden, who is prone to such gaffes, laughed at that one, though he added, “I always say what I mean. And so does Romney.”
Bill Clinton’s refrain this week has been that it is about arithmetic. Joe Biden picked up on this during the Jack Kennedy exchange.
Congressman Ryan said: “You can cut tax rates by 20 percent and still preserve these important preferences for middle-class taxpayers”
Vice President Biden interjected, “Not mathematically possible.”
Congressman Ryan continued, “It is mathematically possible. It’s been done before. It’s precisely what we’re proposing.”
BI Vice President Biden responded, “It has never been done before.”
Congressman Ryan countered, “It’s been done a couple of times, actually.”
Vice President Biden persisted, “It has never been done before.”
Congressman Ryan explained, “Jack Kennedy lowered tax rates, increased growth. Ronald Reagan…”
Vice President Biden, in a moment that invoked Lloyd Bentsen’s conquest of Dan Quayle, responded, “Oh, now you’re Jack Kennedy?”
An underrated line was from Vice President Joe Biden when he said, “I’ve never met two guys who were more down on America.”
It is a juxtaposition from recent years when it is the Democrats accused of being the party of doom and gloom and tearing down America.
It was an interesting contrast in their message here, as Joe Biden gave the message for hope.
In his closing, Vice President Biden said, “People are in real trouble. We acted to move to bring relief to the people who need the most help now.
“And – and in the process, we – in case you haven’t noticed, we have strong disagreements, but I – you probably detected my frustration with their attitude about the American people. My friend says that 30 percent of the American people are takers. Romney points out 47 percent of the people won’t take responsibility.
“He’s talking about my mother and father. He’s talking about the places I grew up in, my neighbors in Scranton and Claymont, and he’s talking about – he’s talking about the people that have built this country. All they’re looking for, Martha, all they’re looking for is an even shot. Whenever you give them the shot, they’ve done it. They’ve done it. Whenever you’ve leveled the playing field, they’ve been able to move. And they want a little bit of peace of mind.”
Governor Ryan’s message was “If you don’t have a good record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone to run from. That was what President Obama said in 2008. It’s what he’s doing right now.”
Ironically, then, he proceeded to paint President Obama as someone to run from by arguing, “Look at all the string of broken promises.” He then began listing them off.
It was a far better performance by Joe Biden than his boss last week, but until President Obama delivers this kind of performance in his own way, there will be open questions – questions that must now be answered by President Obama rather than Mitt Romney.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
“One thing that Joe Biden may well get marked down for is his smirking demeanor during the debate.”
I was just reading the comments on Yahoo about the debate and it’s overwhelming how many thought that Ryan looked more adult and distinguished than Biden. The consensus is that Biden came across as a crass bullying buffoon. Who coached him to smile, laugh and mock his opponent while he was speaking? Did he do it on his own? For whatever reason he took that route it sure didn’t come off well to the public. He way overplayed it and any chance he had of looking like he won the debate was tossed out the window with his clown like actions. Being that the YP is only a heartbeat away from the presidency from what I saw last night it’s very clear that Ryan is the better choice.
It sucks that Biden was tasked with making up for the crappy performance of his boss, because it made him very unlike able and made the debate like a Fox News point counterpoint. Also, the moderator sucked even though the questions were good. Ryan came off the gentleman and the victim.
It is clear that the media lovefest for the Obama admin has made them unprepared to really debate and exain their ideas.
Ryan won that one.
Biden interupted Ryan 88 times. Ryan interupted Biden 6 times. Biden spoke for 2 more minutes than Ryan even though he said that Ryan was speaking too long.
The moderator was outstanding. The debate was very interesting and informative, one of the most substantive debates I can remember. Partisans will clearly prefer their candidate in this case. I personally found it very entertaining.
Ryan was way over his head on foreign policy. I did appreciate that both Radditz and Biden pressed Ryan for specifics. His answers were fine, so it is very clear what the differences between the parties are on Social Security, Medicare, and taxes.
It is very clear that Republicans favor privatizing Social Security. a voucher program for Medicare, and will cut taxes without giving specifics as to how the revenue will be made up. “No specifics, then?” asked the moderator. Nope, no specific.
My biggest concern is that the Romney/Ryan ticket is very clearly very weak on foreign policy. So in order to assess their likely performance as world leaders, you have to look at who they are getting advice from. Ryan’s key foreign policy advisers include Elliott Abrams. [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_Abrams[/url]
Romney/Ryan would be the clear re-ascendancy of the neo-conservatives in foreign policy.
Check out the new ad of the clown in action:
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/laughing-at-the-issues-you-have-to-watch-this-brutal-gop-ad-that-goes-after-biden-for-his-debate-performance/
Don, if you are counting on Biden to bolster Obama’s foreign policy strength then God help us. Obama’s foreign policy is a mess. We have had another terrorist attack and Americans have been killed on his watch.
I think Ryan came off strong and knowledgable. That guy was the smartest in the room by a long shot.
[i]Obama’s foreign policy is a mess. We have had another terrorist attack and Americans have been killed on his watch.[/i]
That statement is preposterous.
Biden has been an important voice in foreign policy and this foreign policy team is one of the best we’ve had in years. What would a Romney/Ryan team be doing differently in the Middle East? How would their policy differ in Afghanistan (apparently Ryan doesn’t know)?
Ryan is clearly unprepared to step into the presidency, were that to become necessary. So again: the important thing, when assessing unprepared candidates who have no foreign policy experience, is from whom they are getting advice. On that count, Americans should be very concerned about the advisers to the Republican team.
Don: Obama had no foreign policy, no business, no private-sector, no executive… no any experience except as a brief stint as a community organizer and a Senator that voted “present” 80% of the time.
The Romney Ryan ticket has all the experience we need… especially domestic economic. With a strong economy, foreign policy becomes much easier in any case.
Obama came into office with virtually no experience whatsover. His two years as a senator he spent basically running for president most of the time.
Recognizing his limitations if foreign policy, Obama selected Biden, who had years of experience on the Senate Foreign Relations committee. His team of Clinton, Panetta, and Petraeus has served us very well, with Biden participating in the decisions at every level.
Recognizing his limitations in foreign policy, Romney chose — a Republican back-bencher who is clearly ignorant on the topic. And again: look at who they are listening to. The same people that drove the Bush foreign policy. We can’t afford to have neo-cons running our policies again.
Republicans would be best off avoiding foreign policy issues. The results of Obama’s anti-terrorism policies speak for themselves. He ended the war in Iraq and is winding down the war in Afghanistan in a prudent and responsible manner. There is nothing a Republican administration would be doing differently in the Middle East except making things worse. We shouldn’t work with the UN? His statements about Iran’s capability were simply false. He doesn’t think the sanctions are working? Does he advocate military action against Iran? What does he think we should be doing differently in Syria? He doesn’t know, could barely formulate a reply.
Don – you are grasping at straws. This election will not turn on foreign policy issues. Even if it did, first, Obama has a mess on his hands with Benghazigate and Americans feeling less safe with the Muslim uprising and Iran heading toward having nuclear weapons. Russia is thumbing their nose at us. There is building unrest in the China Sea area of conflicts with island ownership between Japan, South Korea and China.
The Obama Administration looks like amatuer hour.
But rest easy… the election will be about the economy. And on this, the Romney/Ryan ticket make the Obama/Biden ticket look like chumps in addition to amatuers.
“Biden interupted Ryan 88 times. “
You counted?
David Greenwald: Ironically, then, he proceeded to paint President Obama as someone to run from by arguing, “Look at all the string of broken promises.”
No, actually he was just describing Obama’s lousey record.
It’s unfortunate than Martha Raddatz couldn’t overcome her political prejudices enough to moderate the debate open-mindedly. Sorry, Martha, you’ll never be as good as Jim Lehrer.
Regarding our colorful VP, rude, crude and blustery doesn’t win a debate.
“Obama’s foreign policy is a mess. “
It is remarkable the extent to which talking points get repeated as facts. The Obama foreign policy is not a mess. The world is a mess. He inherited several messes. It’s not clear that things are worse now than they were four years ago and to the extend to which they are, it’s really not clear what they should have done differently.
David:
“Biden interupted Ryan 88 times. ”
“You counted?”
No I didn’t count but it has been reported.
“It is remarkable the extent to which talking points get repeated as facts. The Obama foreign policy is not a mess. The world is a mess.”
“He inherited several messes.”
TALK abou TALKing points.
Every president inherits several messes. It’s all about how they deal with them. This president has chosen to deal with these messes by blaming others and divisiveness.
Foreign Policy – Obama and Hillary Clinton have mended a lot of fences around the world with genuine diplomacy. Undoing Bush’s failed “rude and belligerant” approach.
Don, a week ago you were convinced that there was no chance for Romney to come back and win, due to your take on the electoral college math. Yet in today’s New York Times, Nate Silver has the EC within 40 points, after he was leading by 120 points a week ago. Are you still convinced that Romney cannot win? (By the way, I think Obama will win. I just don’t think it is impossible for Romney to take Florida and Ohio and Virginia and North Carolina and thereby pull out a squeaker.)
I wonder if Paul Ryan presently regrets posing for these “beefcake” photos:
[img]http://cdn.theatlanticwire.com/img/upload/2012/10/11/rendered/f53c9e9791d4679bfff32cdf39b75e58_623x935.jpg[/img]
I also wonder if a woman running for VP would get a lot more criticism if she had shown off her body in a similar fashion wearing work-out clothing? I am normally quite dismissive of feminist cries of “double-standard!”, but the yawns over Ryan’s stupid pictures make me wonder if, say, [s]that dummy quitting ex-governor from Alask[/s] Sarah Palin, had done the same thing, more people would have lambasted her for it?
“Every president inherits several messes. It’s all about how they deal with them. This president has chosen to deal with these messes by blaming others and divisiveness.”
I agree, I think the President has done alright in this capacity and frankly my problem with him is that he is not divisive enough.
Rich: Silver has him at 289 EC votes. I said 300. Looking at the EC map, no, I don’t think Romney will win.
Don: You’re being too optimistic. Romney might not win, but if Obama has another debate like he did last week, that map will look completely different this time next week.
I think the next format is a townhall debate. I’m guessing the Dem political machine is working hard with the liberal media behind the scenes to ensure Obama gets enough softball questions.
I think Obama will do better this time. Especially because the mainscream media is already geared to that template. However he has a real problem in that his strategy to date has been to prop himself up by demonizing the prior administration and perpetuating class warfare.. Well, now he IS that prior administration and the performance record is dismal… and fewer people are buying the class war crap.
That is the essence of the empty chair metaphor. Obama really does not have any new compelling ideas. He can only lash out at the competition to try and scare people to him. I don’t that this will work like it did when there was all the anger directed toward the Bush administration about the economy and war.
I think the next format is a townhall debate. I’m guessing the Dem political machine is working hard with the liberal media behind the scenes to ensure Obama gets enough softball questions.
I think Obama will do better this time. Especially because the mainscream media is already geared to that template. However he has a real problem in that his strategy to date has been to prop himself up by demonizing the prior administration and perpetuating class warfare.. Well, now he IS that prior administration and the performance record is dismal… and fewer people are buying the class war crap.
That is the essence of the empty chair metaphor. Obama really does not have any new compelling ideas. He can only lash out at the competition to try and scare people to him. I don’t that this will work like it did when there was all the anger directed toward the Bush administration about the economy and war. Obama is trying the same tactic against Romney and this is leaving Obama open for counter attack.
[img]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gDYeImViYEI/UHjZt04aQKI/AAAAAAAAArY/fjjz2VFfSsM/s1600/change+tune.JPG[/img]
Don Shor 10/04/12 – 07:53 AM.: [i]”Look at any electoral college map. [b]There is no road[/b] to victory for Romney/Ryan.”[/i]
Don Shor 10/12/12 – 03:29 PM. [i]”Looking at the EC map, no, I don’t think Romney will win. [b]Not impossible[/b], but unlikely.”[/i]
No road? Or not impossible?
He’d have to run the table. Nothing is impossible. Here’s my most pessimistic EC map. What’s yours?
[img]http://davismerchants.org/vanguard/ecmapoct2012.png[/img]
I won’t characterize this map as optimistic or pessimistic. But here is a possible outcome where Romney wins:
[img]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-k1bBOjELtOc/UHm3SUWa3QI/AAAAAAAAAro/bxpP7GY3gK0/s1600/ec+map.JPG[/img]
Although I am giving Colorado to Obama here (to make it as close as possible), it’s quite likely that Romney could win that state, too.
Here are how the closest states look right now in the polls (according to Nate Silver):
Colorado — Romney +1.3%
Florida — Romney +2.2%
Iowa — Obama +0.2%
N. Carolina — Romney +4.7%
N. Hampshire — Obama +1.7%
Nevada — Obama +0.9%
Ohio — Obama +0.8%
Virginia — Romney +0.7%
Wisconsin — Obama +2.5%
All of these states were in Obama’s ledger before the Denver debate. If Obama pulls off another stinker performance or two in the upcoming debates, and the polls subsequently swing 1% more in Romney’s camp, every one of the current “toss-up” states could go for Romney. On the other hand, if Romney is bad in one or more of the debates, we could go back to the situation we had a few weeks ago, where all those states go for Obama. As things now stand, the EC map favors Obama, but is not out of the reach for Romney in my opinion.
Hey Rusty,
Biden needed to respond to Ryan’s “malarkey” (and that is a polite term given the B.S. coming out of Ryan’s mouth.) Ryan and Romney need to stop lying and inventing their own fictitious “facts” to try to get support for themselves.
I am glad however that Ryan’s anti-women’s rights position was exposed so clearly by the moderator. We sure don’t need to backslide there again like Bush/Cheney did when they tried so hard to get the Roe vs. Wade decision overturned.
It was also pretty pathetic to witness Ryan trying to avoid and change the subject on the questions that he knew he had unpopular answer’s to. His desperate attempt to kill time telling the story of Romney’s personal generosity story to an auto crash couple was pretty stupid considering that Biden had lost his wife and child to a drunk driver accident years ago. Biden put Ryan in his place on that pathetic stunt that Ryan tried to avoid answering the question he was asked and to try to drum up votes for Romney.
If Ryan wants to be treated like an adult he should act like an adult instead of a mischievous little boy who lies constantly and needs to be corrected constantly to set the record straight. He just made clear how much of a disingenuous person he is and how he will say ANYTHING, no matter how untrue, to try to persuade his audience. He should know as a Catholic that honesty is the best policy.
[quote]the election will be about the economy. And on this, the Romney/Ryan ticket make the Obama/Biden ticket look like chumps in addition to amatuers[/quote]
Amazing ! And you see them doing this by making no specific proposals as to how they will achieve all of their stated goals without either raising any revenue as they claim ,or devastating the poor, education, health care …. which seems to be well within their grasp ( despite last minute denials that their policies will hurt anyone).
Oh, no ….. I forgot, they are going to do it by “unleashing” the productivity of the 70 % or perhaps 53 % depending on whose numbers they have chosen to use to represent those Americans who they do not see as irresponsible takers. When anyone uses the word divisive in reference to Obama these days, there are the numbers that come to mind for me. What could possibly be more divisive than believing, stating, ( and then hypocritically recanting) that half the country is unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives ?
[i]Amazing ! And you see them doing this by making no specific proposals as to how they will achieve all of their stated goals without either raising any revenue as they claim [/i]
Hey medwoman… where does tax revenue come from?
medwoman: [i]What could possibly be more divisive than believing, stating, ( and then hypocritically recanting) that half the country is unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives ?[/i]
Constant politically-motivated class war rhetoric enflaming anger that the rest do not pay their fair share and that wealth exists without having to earn it.
Did you actually listen to Biden and hear his ideas about trickle-down government and how we should take care of everyone. Did you hear the point that if we taxed the evil 1% 100% it would only run the government for 120 days?
Face it medwoman, we cannot afford to have the government run by bleeding hearts. It is time to get back to focusing on economic development and growth. And at the same time we need to bring more people back to that American work ethic. Work is the answer for most of our social problems: the requirement to work, the opportunity to work and the incremental march to greater prosperity that comes from working hard and working smart.
The primary difference between you and Biden and Me and Ryan is that you two think we should be taking care of more people, and we think more people should be taking care of themselves. We think doing it your way leads to a spiral downward in social, cultural and economic decline. The evidence is all around us proving this point.