Key points:
- Missouri prepares to execute Lance Shockley on October 14, 2025.
- Shockley’s attorneys cite flaws in conviction, including circumstantial evidence.
- Lance Shockley’s transformation in prison includes leading worship services.
ST. LOUIS – With Missouri preparing to execute Lance Shockley on October 14, 2025, his attorneys and advocates are urging Governor Mike Kehoe to grant clemency, citing what they call grave flaws in his conviction and sentencing. Shockley, convicted in 2009 of killing a state trooper, has always maintained his innocence. His legal team says the case rests on circumstantial evidence, questionable ballistics analysis, juror misconduct, and a judicial override that imposed a death sentence despite a divided jury.
Assistant Federal Public Defender TC Tanski, one of Shockley’s clemency attorneys, said the case carries multiple “red flags for potential wrongful convictions.” He pointed first to problems with the forensic science at the heart of the state’s case.
“In Lance’s case, the state attempted to match collected ballistics evidence that was in some ways deformed and match it to evidence that they believed came from Lance’s property. And they did that through this process, essentially called a theory of identification,” Tanski said.
He explained that the method resembled fingerprint comparison, where analysts claim that bullet markings are unique enough to tie a round to a specific firearm.
“In so many words, it is where an analyst… looks for features on these items and attempts to sort of document them and in some ways is a bit akin to fingerprints,” Tanski said.
But even the state’s own experts could not agree on the supposed match. One state-hired independent expert refused to call it a definitive link and labeled the finding “inconclusive.” Later, the same expert shifted his opinion under pressure, before reverting again.
“What we’re finding is that they can’t establish scientifically that the method is capable of doing what it says it can do,” Tanski said, pointing to national reviews that raised concerns about firearms comparisons. He cited the 2009 National Academy of Sciences report and the 2016 PCA report, which he said raised “red flags” about the reliability of such evidence.
For Tanski, the reliability issues did not end with forensics. He said the state’s timeline of events was inconsistent with witness testimony.
“There are witnesses who place Lance in different locations at different times and he can’t quite be at all of those locations at those times,” he said. Those contradictions, he added, were never fully explored by Shockley’s trial counsel, raising concerns about ineffective assistance.
The trial was further clouded by juror misconduct. The jury foreperson, known as “Juror 58,” distributed his self-published novel about a revenge killing, strikingly similar to the case, to both jurors and the trial judge before the guilty verdict.
Although the foreperson was removed before sentencing, he had already participated in deliberations and voted to convict. When Shockley’s lawyers sought a mistrial, the judge denied the request and refused to question other jurors about possible bias.
Then–Missouri Supreme Court Chief Justice Laura Denvir Stith sharply criticized that decision in a dissent, writing that Shockley should have received a new trial.
At sentencing, the jury split between life without parole and death. Under Missouri law, such a deadlock allows a judge to decide. Carter County Circuit Judge David Evans imposed the death penalty, one of the few instances where judicial override is still permitted. Missouri is one of only two states that allow the practice.
Shockley’s attorneys say that the lack of physical evidence linking him to the crime, coupled with juror misconduct and a divided jury, leave too much uncertainty to justify execution.
“Executing a man when there is residual doubt about his guilt would be a profound injustice,” said Jeremy Weis, Shockley’s lead attorney.
Tanski said the case now stands at a critical juncture, with two possible paths: pending litigation seeking forensic DNA testing of 16 pieces of evidence, and the clemency petition before Governor Kehoe.
“Where we’re at now, there is a little bit of a fork in the road in that one option is that there is a line of litigation going on right now requesting forensic DNA testing… and then two executive clemency that rests with the Missouri governor and his ability to commute Lance’s sentence from death to something less,” Tanski said.
He acknowledged the risks of DNA testing, noting that results can sometimes fail to help petitioners. Still, he argued that testing offers the best chance to bring clarity.
“If the courts were to provide that opportunity to Lance, then there could be time in there to do the testing to figure out what answers are there and to take the next steps,” he said.
Clemency, Tanski said, would allow Shockley to remain in prison for life without parole while continuing to pursue DNA testing and other avenues of relief.
“If we are trying our best to see what evidence may be there to support Lance’s innocence claim, then certainly allowing him to not be executed would enable us to move forward with that investigation,” he said.
Asked whether he thought Governor Kehoe would intervene, Tanski said the decision remains uncertain.
“I think there’s a level of hope in that this Missouri governor, this is his… first opportunity to really weigh one of these cases. I have no doubt that he and the people he works with are going to take this very seriously,” Tanski said. He suggested Kehoe’s pro-life stance could align with granting clemency. “If he’s taking these positions particularly on life and protecting life, then the death penalty is not the way to go on that,” Tanski said.
Beyond the legal flaws, Tanski highlighted Shockley’s transformation during 16 years in prison. He said Shockley’s Christian faith has become central to his life and work behind bars.
“You represent a lot of clients in this work, and Lance is incredibly unique in the way that he has developed and the way that… it’s been through his faith,” Tanski said.
As president of the Restorative Justice Organization at Potosi Correctional Center, Shockley has led worship services, counseled peers, and mentored others struggling with addiction and trauma.
“He has brought other guys in there to his faith, he has given sermons, he has grown the membership in restorative justice in the prison… There are guys on the outside now who… credit their lives, the improvements in their lives to Lance’s mentorship and his ability to resolve conflicts with them or really lead by example,” Tanski said.
Shockley’s work extends beyond the prison walls. According to Tanski, he remains an “incredibly devoted father” to his two daughters and maintains strong ties with his community in Van Buren. He continues to pray with family and friends during visits and encourages others to “live with purpose.”
Supporters say Shockley’s transformation highlights what is at stake in the clemency request. Herb Conley, a former chaplain at Potosi, said, “Lance Shockley is a pillar in these programs,” pointing to his leadership in restorative justice and transition training initiatives.
Tanski acknowledged the pain of the crime for the victim’s family but said executing Shockley despite unresolved doubts would only deepen injustice.
“Even while we all sit here and say, I think this is, they got the wrong guy, he still feels for the attendant trauma that comes from all of this and the impact it can have on the people that lost in this case,” Tanski said.
The clemency petition asks Governor Kehoe to commute Shockley’s sentence to life without parole, a move that would keep him in prison for the rest of his life but halt the execution. Advocates are urging Missourians and others nationwide to act quickly, signing the petition at www.istandwithlance.com and contacting the governor’s office.
“Executing Lance Shockley under these circumstances would not only extinguish a life but erode public trust in the justice system,” attorney Weis said in a statement.
With just weeks remaining before the scheduled execution, Tanski said the case represents a test of Missouri’s justice system and its willingness to address doubt.
“Without that absolute certainty and still with residual doubt, in this case it makes sense to try and let some of this play out,” he said.
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