NEW YORK — Newly released federal arrest data are sharpening the picture of how mass deportation actually functions in the United States, revealing that the front lines of immigration enforcement are not limited to high-profile federal raids but are embedded in the routine operations of local jails.
According to Hiding in Plain Sight, an analysis by the Deportation Data Project, Immigration and Customs Enforcement is now making more than 1,000 arrests per day nationwide, with nearly half of those arrests — 48 percent — occurring inside local jails and other lockups.
The analysis examines ICE arrest data through mid-October and arrives as the Trump administration continues to project an image of sweeping federal power. Yet the report shows that deportation outcomes remain deeply tied to decisions made by governors, sheriffs and local police departments.
Over the past year, immigration enforcement has accelerated on multiple fronts. Detention has climbed to historic highs, raids have expanded across major cities, and access to asylum and immigration court relief has narrowed.
ICE arrest trends reveal two distinct surges in 2025. The first followed the January inauguration, and the second came in late May after internal pressure to push arrests toward 3,000 per day.
Local jails have quietly become one of the most consistent sites of enforcement. Arrests originating from jails rose from about 350 per day in late January to more than 500 per day on average by August, according to the analysis.
Community arrests climbed even higher during the same period. They peaked in late May and early June at nearly 700 per day and remained above 600 per day on average in September.
The data show sharp contrasts across state lines. In states where cooperation with ICE is required, arrest rates are highest, while states that restrict access to jails show far lower levels of enforcement.
Texas recorded the highest overall number of ICE arrests in the country. Its arrest rate nearly doubled between January to May and May to October, rising from about 58 to 110 arrests per 100,000 residents.
Florida and Tennessee stand out for jail-based enforcement. In Tennessee, three out of every four ICE arrests occurred in local jails, while in Florida, 67 percent of arrests originated from jails and other lockups.
Other states tell a different story. Illinois, New York and Oregon all experienced increases in arrests, but their overall rates remained substantially lower than those seen in states with mandatory cooperation.
In Illinois, the ICE arrest rate rose from nearly 8 to 21 per 100,000 residents. New York’s rate increased from 9 to 26 per 100,000, and Oregon’s rose from 5 to 13 per 100,000.
Jail-based arrests make up a much smaller share in those states. About one in 10 ICE arrests came from jails in New York and Oregon, compared with roughly one in six in Illinois.
The analysis points to Illinois as an example of firm statewide limits. State guidance bars transfers to ICE, restricts agent access to people in custody, and requires public disclosure of every request made by immigration authorities.
New Jersey occupies a more ambiguous middle ground. Although the state banned formal deputization agreements, informal jail access has persisted, and ICE arrests there nearly doubled from 21 to 40 per 100,000 residents between May and October.
Taken together, the data suggest that federal enforcement power is not exercised in isolation. The report shows that mass deportation rises or stalls depending on whether state and local systems open their doors or keep them closed.
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