By Vanguard Staff
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Gov. Gavin Newsom said preliminary statewide data shows a significant decline in unsheltered homelessness in California in 2025, while an opinion columnist for The Sacramento Bee sharply questioned whether the numbers are reliable or complete enough to support that conclusion.
According to the governor’s office, data reported by California communities for 2025 point-in-time counts indicate a roughly 9% reduction in unsheltered homelessness in regions that have submitted preliminary figures to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The administration said the decline represents the largest reported decrease in unsheltered homelessness in the state in more than 15 years and places California ahead of national trends, which continue to show increases.
“I made homelessness a top priority in 2019 with my eyes wide open — knowing we had to take on a broken system that was failing far too many people,” Gavin Newsom said in a statement released by his office. “No one in this country should be without a place to call home. In California, we’re proving there is a solution. The strategies we’ve put in place are working, and they’re turning this crisis around — but we’re not done. We won’t stop until everyone has a safe, stable place to call home.”
The administration attributed the reported decline to expanded shelter capacity, increased housing production, behavioral health investments and a more aggressive approach to addressing encampments. Officials said the data was drawn from reports submitted by 30 local Continuums of Care and calculated using HUD’s standard reporting methodology.
The governor’s office emphasized that the reported reduction occurred despite what it described as federal headwinds, including delays in HUD funding and proposed cuts to safety net programs under former President Donald Trump. The statement said California has continued to expand state-funded homelessness and housing programs even as federal support has faced uncertainty.
In an opinion column published Thursday, columnist Tom Philp of The Sacramento Bee argued that the governor’s claims rely on incomplete data and risk overstating progress on one of California’s most persistent crises.
Sacramento County, Philp wrote, has not conducted a physical count of people experiencing homelessness since January 2024 because federal guidelines require comprehensive point-in-time counts only in even-numbered years. As a result, Philp wrote that no complete statewide count exists for 2025 and that any assertion of a statewide decline is necessarily partial.
“‘California, 2025, unsheltered homeless, 9% reduction,’” Newsom said Thursday morning in the chambers of the California Assembly, according to Philp’s column. “‘First time in almost two decades.’”
Philp argued that the governor appeared to rely on data from a relatively small share of California communities that voluntarily attempted counts in an off-cycle year. He wrote that a comprehensive statewide figure for 2025 “will never exist” because many jurisdictions did not conduct counts and will not do so until later this year or next year.
The column also highlighted long-standing critiques of the point-in-time counting process itself, which requires volunteers to count people experiencing homelessness on a single night in January. Philp described the method as inherently limited, particularly for counting people who are unsheltered.
“The official counting process is so limited, searching for the unhoused on a single day in January — it is a dubious data point at best,” Philp wrote. “Its only value is to compare current bad numbers to previous and equally bad totals.”
Philp cited recent commentary from homelessness service providers emphasizing that point-in-time counts systematically underestimate the size of the unsheltered population. “PIT Counts are widely recognized nationwide as an undercount of homelessness,” Lisa Bates, chief executive officer of Sacramento Steps Forward, wrote in a recent Bee column, according to Philp. “No single-night survey — especially one conducted outdoors in January — can capture every unhoused person. Volunteers can only count those they see.”
While questioning the data, Philp also criticized recent state budget decisions, writing that Newsom failed to mention cuts to one of the state’s primary homelessness funding streams. According to the column, the governor and Legislature reduced funding for the Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention program from $1 billion to zero in the 2025–26 state budget, with plans to restore half the funding in a later year.
“So I say this with love and respect to the counties, no more excuses,” Newsom said in his State of the State address, as quoted by Philp. “It’s time to bring people off the streets and out of encampments and into housing and treatment.”
Philp argued that reducing state funding while pressing local governments to accelerate results risks undermining progress. He compared Newsom’s approach to federal actions under former President Donald Trump, writing that both leaders have taken steps that could weaken long-term homelessness responses by limiting financial support.
The Bee column also cited local administrative data that appears to conflict with claims of declining homelessness. According to Bee reporting referenced by Philp, Sacramento Steps Forward maintains a live database of people experiencing homelessness who are seeking services in Sacramento County. That database showed a 50% increase between June and September 2025, according to the column.
Philp acknowledged that the database is imperfect and fluctuates as people move in and out of the system but argued that it may provide a more immediate picture of local conditions than a one-night count.
“Curious whether homelessness is up or down in California?” Philp wrote. “We’ll have another bad set of numbers some time next year. Meanwhile, I wouldn’t listen to Newsom. The best guess is achieved by simply opening your eyes.”
The governor’s office maintains that California’s multi-pronged strategy is producing measurable results and has cited large-scale investments since 2019, including the Homekey program, Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention funding, encampment resolution grants and voter-approved mental health reforms. State officials have also emphasized new accountability measures tying homelessness funding to local performance.
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